nyblizz44 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png appreciated n here is your mustard Where is my Grey Poupon....... SnowAmt90Prcntl.png http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png appreciated n here is your mustard Where is my Grey Poupon....... SnowAmt90Prcntl.png http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter I hope that 2.5 over NYC verifies so someone wins the contest this week - I am getting tired of crossing out contestants names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I hope that 2.5 over NYC verifies so someone wins the contest this week - I am getting tired of crossing out contestants names the way its going the last date picked is going to win by default Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like New York City won't be seeing snow from this one (graphic c/o CTP NWS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 00z NAM has 40-45kt 10m winds just a few miles off the NJ Coast 18z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 4km NAM has 75+kt LLJ at 925mb at 15z Tuesday just east of Asbury Park. Really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS 0Z 48hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8.png Need More???? 60hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png 72hrs J LO ...has a better backside http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Great time to be in Monticello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Once the storm reaches the latitude of about Asbury Park, the easterly winds could really rip into the LI Sound. The 4km NAM is also picking up on this...with 55-60mph winds in the lowest 0-30mb there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 will this storm begin before the Tuesday AM commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 4km NAM has 75+kt LLJ at 925mb at 15z Tuesday just east of Asbury Park. Really impressive. 4km NAM is mixing layer height is at 60kt winds aloft Tuesday afternoon at OKX and 55kt winds aloft at ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Once the storm reaches the latitude of about Asbury Park, the easterly winds could really rip into the LI Sound. The 4km NAM is also picking up on this...with 55-60mph winds in the lowest 0-30mb there.The South Shore could take it on the chin too especially if the low stalls out a little south of NYC. The few hours of heavy rain on the front end could be quite exciting down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Upton still says 45 mph gust possible. Also say they may have to issue a wind advisory especially for eastern long island they refuse to say anything about higher gusts and possible high wind warnings!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 0z GFS mixed layer height taps into a core 50-60kt winds OKX on Tuesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Upton still says 45 mph gust possible. Also say they may have to issue a wind advisory especially for eastern long island they refuse to say anything about higher gusts and possible high wind warnings!!!!!!!!Upton tends to be conservative and they will also want to see this type of event having a plethora of support. This is also still 48-60 hours out, so they're not ready to begin to biting on this scenario quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 0z GFS mixed layer height taps into a core 50-60kt winds OKX on Tuesday: Looks to be showing it taps into it for a good 3-4 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Upton still says 45 mph gust possible. Also say they may have to issue a wind advisory especially for eastern long island they refuse to say anything about higher gusts and possible high wind warnings!!!!!!!! Maybe they don't expect higher gusts or HWWs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah I agree they always tend to wait as long as possible..... usally they will mention how strong the winds might be that's why im surprised there not going with higher then 45 gust.. alot of people on here are talking more then 45 gust ive seen people mention that we will probably have a high wind warning issued!!!! I highly doubt upton issues anything more than a wind advisory!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 4km NAM has 75+kt LLJ at 925mb at 15z Tuesday just east of Asbury Park. Really impressive. Pulling some very impressive profiles off the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Maybe they don't expect higher gusts or HWWs That's what I was trying to say!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Any updates from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Any updates from the Euro? Further east and quite a bit cooler. Not sure it'll help most of you guys, but it looks to have some interesting implications imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Further east and quite a bit cooler. Not sure it'll help most of you guys, but it looks to have some interesting implications imby. Ehh, valleys will be tough in the poor cold airmass this will head into. But for Orange County and foothills locations the east track can make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY416 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014...NOR`EASTER TO BRING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ON TUESDAY...CTZ009>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-082115-/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.141209T1100Z-141209T2300Z/SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-416 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERNWESTCHESTER...AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARDS...HIGH WINDS.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH.* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING INTO MIDAFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ANDMINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUSHIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 00z ECMWF was only a tick East. At hour 45 you're sitting less than 50 miles off the NJ coast. The difference here is that it occluded over Eastern Long Island so the dry slot stays more out that way and most Western zones get good CCB snows on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 00z ECMWF was only a tick East. At hour 45 you're sitting less than 50 miles off the NJ coast. The difference here is that it occluded over Eastern Long Island so the dry slot stays more out that way and most Western zones get good CCB snows on Tuesday night. Western zones in what forecast office ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Western zones in what forecast office ? Some in New Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...**MULTI HAZARD NOR`EASTER TUESDAY THAT WILL FORCE DELAYS**THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AND THE FORECAST CONCENTRATES SOLELY ON THEPERIODS 12Z/9 TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z/12 FRIDAY WITH WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCETHE REST OF THE FORECAST.MULTI IMPACTS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL WITH STILL SOMEMODEL DIFFERENCES AND WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS.TUESDAY...STORMY. PWAT 1 TO 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. ESE INFLOW AT 850 MBABOUT 4 TO 5 SD ABOVE NORMAL. WEAKENING 700 MB STEERING WINDS ANDEVENTUAL FORMATION OF A 700MB LOW OVER NJ KEEPS THE DRY SLOT OVEREASTERN NJ AND BANDING TO THE WEST OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY ANDWESTWARD.SNOW: THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATEMUCH LESS CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE POCONOS AND WORRIEDABOUT THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST FROM ELEVATIONS OFBERKS COUNTY ( N OF KRDG LATITUDE) NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAINOF WARREN AND SUSSEX COUNTIES.THE SNOW MAP YOU SEE POSTED IS NOT SET IN STONE... BUT WE THOUGHTIT BEST TO WARN NOW TO PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIAL PROBLEMOF WET SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CONSIDERABLE POWER OUTAGES IN THE POCONOSTUESDAY WITH WITH BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ADDING ON TUESDAY NIGHTAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE TUESDAY FROMAROUND 4 OR 5 AM THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 wheel of fortune- loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Mid_Atlantic-vis-6 http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/2km/Mid_Atlantic/current/Mid_Atlantic.vis.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrbw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Stevens Institute estimates next two high tides will be @ 2'-3' above normal by Sandy Hook area. StormSurf site estimates 10 foot seas in the NY Harbor area tomorrow (Tues)_afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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