December 9-10 Coastal Storm Threat

[rgwp96]

Even though the Euro is only spitting out say ~2.00" of rain, this is the type of setup where you can easily get 4-5" totals. Pretty scary scenario given the wind potential.

pretty disappointing, going to have over 4 inches of precip  for the month easily after tuesday and no snow to speak of.

[WeatherFox]

Can we expect a High Wind Warning? Is there such a thing?

Not currently expected but yes, there is a High Wind Warning..

[MJO812]

Still 2 lows on the Euro. Interesting.

[Allsnow]

still feeling the effects of this storm next sunday on the euro 

[bluewave]

still feeling the effects of this storm next sunday on the euro 

 

Too bad that strong block wasn't up near the Davis Strait.

 

[Radders]

I count as many of 3 redeveloping surface lows on the Euro followed by 500mb cutoff way off the coast of the carolinas at 204hrs, with another bowling ball coming through the upper midwest.  Very anomalous. 

There is basically no warm up. 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

I count as many of 3 redeveloping surface lows on the Euro followed by 500mb cutoff way off the coast of the carolinas at 204hrs, with another bowling ball coming through the upper midwest. Very anomalous.

There is basically no warm up.

so it looks like a pattern change.

[bluewave]

The Euro is looking like 50-60 mph gusts around 18z Tuesday from the Jersey Shore

out across LI. It generates some CAPE which could help mix down the stronger winds

with any convection.

[Radders]

so it looks like a pattern change.

 

Well the pattern change is a really separate sequence of events that are happening outside of this event..  This solution of the 12Z Euro is just helping us avoid a torch by keeping lower heights (bootleg cold) over the Northeast all the way through day 10 as the real pattern change starts to take effect..

[kevbo81]

Well the pattern change is a really separate sequence of events that are happening outside of this event..  This solution of the 12Z Euro is just helping us avoid a torch by keeping lower heights (bootleg cold) over the Northeast all the way through day 10 as the real pattern change starts to take effect..

 

Very, very interesting. What a turn of events. To me, if the persistent low heights are for real on the euro, 

our winter weather pattern essentially begins this week.....

[Weathergun]

The Euro is looking like 50-60 mph gusts around 18z Tuesday from the Jersey Shore

out across LI. It generates some CAPE which could help mix down the stronger winds

with any convection.

I think this is most likely and much of the local area will be under at least a wind advisory.

[rcad1]

Upton is saying only 50mph gust and that will be across the east end. They say a adv might be needed for the east end. Thought all of long island was looking at atleast adv if not high wind warnings.

[SnoSki14]

pretty disappointing, going to have over 4 inches of precip  for the month easily after tuesday and no snow to speak of.

Climo is still unfavorable at this time anyway but the constant storminess could be a positive when the pattern becomes favorable for snow. And no it's unlikely to be cold and dry in a textbook Nino which so far is what we are getting. 

 

If the NAO ever cooperates we could see a huge snow event sometime this winter probably late January or February when blocking is expected to be likely to occur. 

[Guest Pamela]

Climo is still unfavorable at this time anyway but the constant storminess could be a positive when the pattern becomes favorable for snow. And no it's unlikely to be cold and dry in a textbook Nino which so far is what we are getting. 

 

If the NAO ever cooperates we could see a huge snow event sometime this winter probably late January or February when blocking is expected to be likely to occur. 

 

By 15  or 20 December...climo is really not so unfavorable anymore...especially just away from the immediate shore.  Remember, most spots in North Jersey & Westchester above say 400' average at least 9 or 10 inches of snow in December...so it has to fall at some point. 

[jbenedet]

Upton is saying only 50mph gust and that will be across the east end. They say a adv might be needed for the east end. Thought all of long island was looking at atleast adv if not high wind warnings.

This would be a good forecast if you expect the center to come right over LI, and get dry slotted while winds just aloft are cranking, i.e. 925 mb winds would stay aloft and not mix down. If the surface low moves further inland, say closer to NJ/PA border you could see the winds really crank all along jersey coast, LI and SNE, particularly with the large southerly fetch over the relatively warm Atlantic.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

This would be a good forecast if you expect the center to come right over LI, and get dry slotted while winds just aloft are cranking, i.e. 925 mb winds would stay aloft and not mix down. If the surface low moves further inland, say closer to NJ/PA border you could see the winds really crank all along jersey coast, LI and SNE, particularly with the large southerly fetch over the relatively warm Atlantic.

I could see something similar to April 07. Where we blasted and then got to close to the center and winds died. Meanwhile up in Maine they had well over hurricane force gusts.

I still think we see a HHW over Li and advisory NYC and near by suburbs

[rcad1]

I doubt we see high wind warnings atleast based on Uptons disco! Advisory might only be issued for east end again according to Upton.

[jm1220]

I'm concerned about the trend west on some of the guidance. A low that moves into NJ and stalls may be a significant coastal flood and wind threat in addition to the strong southerly winds which could reach 60+ mph on the coast (Southerly winds tend to be easier to mix down through any inversion). That will pile lots of water into the bays and also cause beach erosion. A few inches of rain would also cause lots of street flooding and saturated ground from the rainy last few weeks could also cause a good amount of tree/power damage. 

[WintersGrasp]

I'm concerned about the trend west on some of the guidance. A low that moves into NJ and stalls may be a significant coastal flood and wind threat in addition to the strong southerly winds which could reach 60+ mph on the coast (Southerly winds tend to be easier to mix down through any inversion). That will pile lots of water into the bays and also cause beach erosion. A few inches of rain would also cause lots of street flooding and saturated ground from the rainy last few weeks could also cause a good amount of tree/power damage.

New NAM stalls it basically over NYC for a day or so.....initial very heavy rain over the area and then all precip pushed N and W of the low. Far NW

[WeatherFox]

New NAM stalls it basically over NYC for a day or so.....initial very heavy rain over the area and then all precip pushed N and W of the low. Far NW

NAM also had the change over to light snow at the end of the event.  Unfortuately at many hours into the future so forecasting confidence is low.

[SnowGoose69]

If the GGEM and RGEM and nam are right my forecasts for places like BGM ALB and AVP will bust severely, some runs of those models have suggested those locales may struggle to see any pure snow before late Tuesday night into Wednesday AM

[WeatherFox]

Now the 12Z GFS was also bullish on light snow at the 75-84 hour period.  Likewise, a little out there for much confidence at this time.

[WeatherFox]

If the GGEM and RGEM and nam are right my forecasts for places like BGM ALB and AVP will bust severely, some runs of those models have suggested those locales may struggle to see any pure snow before late Tuesday night into Wednesday AM

Live by the models, die by the models.  But why be concerned, a later snowfall is better than no snowfall..

[Zelocita Weather]

Cold air mass tonight/tomorrow....too bad it can't hold

[WeatherFox]

Cold air mass tonight/tomorrow....too bad it can't hold

Maybe, thats true and maybe its not.  I guess we would get at least some snow depending on a benchmark track, intensity, speed of system among the other notorious kill the NYC snowfall hope issues.

[nyblizz44]

NWS Upton has an experimental product which lists New York City maximum snow potential till Thursday morning at 2 inches of snow

[Doorman]

 NWS Upton has an experimental product which lists New York City maximum snow potential till Thursday morning at 2 inches of snow

http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

 

  Where is my Grey Poupon.......

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

[WeatherFox]

NWS Upton has an experimental product which lists New York City maximum snow potential till Thursday morning at 2 inches of snow

Cool, please post that link for future reference.  Thanks!

[WeatherFox]

http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

 

http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Thanks, Doorman.  You beat nyblizz44 to the punch.

[nyblizz44]

Cool, please post that link for future reference. Thanks!

happily. Usually I post from my computer it's easier to do that. Visa 4G phones are still love kind of foreign as far as posting is concerned for me