NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 this storm has no where to go once it reaches the metro lat blocked by strong HP to the north - also there is cold air available later in the period coming from that big high to the northwest in southern canada and the NAM in its out of range hours is stalling the storm east of the metro and the storm is grabbing this cold air and we change to snow by wednesday - have to see if this trend continues in future model runs and how much precip is left as it is spinning itself out just east of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah, definitely a subtropical look. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14120706/64.html http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/14120700/59.html What do you think the wind potential could be and how far inland? There's mention of advisory winds for much of NJ on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 What do you think the wind potential could be and how far inland? There's mention of advisory winds for much of NJ on Tuesday. Maybe gusts to 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnowman26 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Long time lurker and weather hobbyist. I just wanted to ask ..... I know in the past generally I've always read that you need a strong system to start a pattern change. Could this be the storm that can jump start that pattern change to a colder and snowier pattern for the nyc and Long Island area ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Long time lurker and weather hobbyist. I just wanted to ask ..... I know in the past generally I've always read that you need a strong system to start a pattern change. Could this be the storm that can jump start that pattern change to a colder and snowier pattern for the nyc and Long Island area ? Sent from my iPhone No, the system that may do that will be the one that may cut into the Lakes next week might do that...the GFS is already starting to delay that pattern change though...at the same time however its muting the torch we thought we would have. Generally systems that impact our area change the pattern from cold to warm more often than not...its the systems that cut into the Lakes or Midwest that tend to flip the East from a mild to cold pattern. My guess is its going to be closer to 12/25-12/28 til we really see this thing go balls to the wall cold and snowy for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Rain before sunrise on the Euro Tuesday morning. As much as 0.25"+ in the bucket before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro looks like it's holding serve on track. Just East of VA beach at hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Sub 1000mb 30-40 miles east of ACY. Intense, very heavy rain over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Starting to cool aloft at hour 57, sitting tucked right into the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12 Euro continues further west than GFS at 54 just SE of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hr 60, storm stalled south of LI, the Poconos and the far interior are flipping to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The 12z GFS Bufkit has 52kt northerly winds at 971mb for EWR at 21z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 H5 closes off well to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Bit of a dry slot late Tuesday night as the low is occluding overhead, NE PA and Upstate NY getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 66 hr stalling out just east of LGA 996 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The Euro has 65-70kt winds at 925mb over the south shore of Long Island at 18z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 A second low forms well offshore this time, east of 68W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Anybody in our area looking for more than some snow showers is going to be wildly disappointed. The main show with this storm will be the rain/wind... especially on the NJ Coast and Long Island...and the very heavy rain elsewhere. Those are prolific rainfall amounts possible underneath the peaking dynamics Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 With regards to wrap around snows reaching the coastal plain, as a general rule, when the cyclone takes the typical Hatteras to the Benchmark to the Gulf of Maine track...the wrap around effect is usually very limited or non existent as the winds quickly back to the northwest...perpendicular to the Appalachians...and utterly perfect for downsloping & compressional warming & drying. However, when the low takes a more westerly track...say from the Virginia Capes to the New York Bight to somewhere over New England...I'd argue that chances for some wrap around snow shower activity right down to the coastal plain are a good deal better. That's because the surface flow is likely to be more westerly or even west southwesterly in such a situation...and compressional warming is not as effective...allowing a good deal more low & mid level moisture to linger over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Anybody in our area looking for more than some snow showers is going to be wildly disappointed. The main show with this storm will be the rain/wind... especially on the NJ Coast and Long Island...and the very heavy rain elsewhere. Those are prolific rainfall amounts possible underneath the peaking dynamics Tuesday afternoon. How does far NW nj do with any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Maine gets smoked on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 this storm has no where to go once it reaches the metro lat blocked by strong HP to the north - also there is cold air available later in the period coming from that big high to the northwest in southern canada and the NAM in its out of range hours is stalling the storm east of the metro and the storm is grabbing this cold air and we change to snow by wednesday - have to see if this trend continues in future model runs and how much precip is left as it is spinning itself out just east of here A stalled system (at least for a short period of time) which has happened before. I was amused by the NWS using the word "dancing" in their forecast discussion concerning the evolution of this upcoming storm threat. Challenging to ascertain overall rain or snow and where it rains the most and snows the most especially in NYC, Long Island for this longer termed event. Who knows, maybe there will be a 1" Central Park winner sooner than later this month. Personally, I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The Euro has 65-70kt winds at 925mb over the south shore of Long Island at 18z Tuesday.Wow that's incredible, if that verifies the wind combined with the saturated ground would probably cause a good amount of power outages. How much has fallen by the time the strongest winds get going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The Euro has 65-70kt winds at 925mb over the south shore of Long Island at 18z Tuesday. What about the surface? Would that be the same? Because I believe Sandy had similar wind speeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro has some snow showers for our area on Wednesday but nothing big. Like John said, the rain will be the biggest story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 How does far NW nj do with any snow. Not much, maybe the highest of elevations flip a bit sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The Euro has 65-70kt winds at 925mb over the south shore of Long Island at 18z Tuesday. The 12z GFS has inversion somewhere between 875mb and 925mb Tuesday afternoon. But there are plenty of 50kt+ winds between 950mb and 975mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Even though the Euro is only spitting out say ~2.00" of rain, this is the type of setup where you can easily get 4-5" totals. Pretty scary scenario given the wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Can we expect a High Wind Warning? Is there such a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Can we expect a High Wind Warning? Is there such a thing? I think that's what we had here on LI during Sandy if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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