REDMK6GLI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The bust potential either way is larger then the Thanksgiving storm IMO since it is not very clear where that LP is going to track and stall out for how long ??? I agree they're but the backlash snows at the end i would confine to areas just outside of NYC right now. I just cant see this storm taking a track closer to the GFS then the ECMWF. Not often does the ECMWF bust on a storm like this and even in the end still weighted notably higher than other comprable models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The bust potential either way is larger then the Thanksgiving storm IMO since it is not very clear where that LP is going to track and stall out for how long ??? It doesn't matter how much it slows down since there won't be enough moisture left for anything more than some scattered snow showers on the backside as it goes vertically stacked. There doesn't seem to be much other support yet for that Euro second low snow scenario. But the first low is going to be very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 It doesn't matter how much it slows down since there won't be enough moisture left for anything more than some scattered snow showers on the backside as it goes vertically stacked. read what I said again "The bust potential either way is larger then the Thanksgiving storm IMO since it is not very clear where that LP is going to track and stall out for how long ??? This is a work in progress and those WPC maps will probably change over the next day or 2" Do you actually think there will be no surprises with this storm - especially after the 11/26 bust???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 read what I said again "The bust potential either way is larger then the Thanksgiving storm IMO since it is not very clear where that LP is going to track and stall out for how long ??? This is a work in progress and those WPC maps will probably change over the next day or 2" Do you actually think there will be no surprises with this storm - especially after the 11/26 bust???? I will say with the HP placement if its gonna bust it will bust too warm and that would mean the LP not hugging the coast as much as shown currently via ECMWF. We will see but the setup is still fairly volatile and if this thing does shift 50-75 miles east (highly unlikely at this point going with the ECMWF skill score with these storms) they're will be some white surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 read what I said again "The bust potential either way is larger then the Thanksgiving storm IMO since it is not very clear where that LP is going to track and stall out for how long ??? This is a work in progress and those WPC maps will probably change over the next day or 2" Do you actually think there will be no surprises with this storm - especially after the 11/26 bust???? There always is . However the most crucial part of the snowfall center should still show up in places from NEPA into NNE along the spine of apps where they see 2 ft with 3 ft maxes in NNE . Closer to home the bust potential is 2 inches of rain vs 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Verbatim 12z Nam gives some decent snows on Wed, maybe 2-4" or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Verbatim 12z Nam gives some decent snows on Wed, maybe 2-4" or so...From wraparound? Rarely pans out....just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Ralph, rarely storms back into the coast and sit there for days as well. This backend snow is being modeled fairly consistently at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Verbatim 12z Nam gives some decent snows on Wed, maybe 2-4" or so... The 4km version is much warmer, though both are outside their range this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12z GFS finally nudged further west like the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12z GFS finally nudged further west like the other guidance. 12z GFS has the low just east of LI and stalling just to the north of NYC. Heavy rain to snow showers for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12z GFS has the low just east of LI and stalling just to the north of NYC. Heavy rain to snow showers for the coast. The snow showers could be reasonable given there would be limited moisture once this goes vertically stacked for much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Subsidence on either side of the CCB spells huge bust potential. I can attest to this from as recently as the pre-Thanksgiving storm where I-81 from Harrisburg to Scranton dryslotted for most of the afternoon between the heavier bands to the east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Still looks like the GFS may be too fast for the low to depart the area since Euro/UKMET slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This run of the GFS has much less snow than the 6z. The bullseye is still around Hunter Mountain, upwards of 2 feet and 6-12" for NEPA. Around a trace of snow for NYC, with a few inches or maybe more as you head west into NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Seems someone from E Pa to NYC will see 1-4" with wraparound snows on the backside Wednesday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The RGEM is not at its reliable range but its very far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Seems someone from E Pa to NYC will see 1-4" with wraparound snows on the backside Wednesday.... Good luck on banking on wraparound snows. At this point i would just say rain with snow showers at the end as colder air gets worked into the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12z UKMET looks a little warmer than GFS and is slower and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The RGEM is not at its reliable range but its very far west Interesting that is identical to the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Good luck on banking on wraparound snows. At this point i would just say rain with snow showers at the end as colder air gets worked into the system This is a different system than other systems that we have dealt with. Wraparound snows are possible with this. It will depend on where the low occludes. All the models point to a rain event for the area with snow showers at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This is a different system than other systems that we have dealt with. Wraparound snows are possible with this. It will depend on where the low occludes. All the models point to a rain event for the area with snow showers at the end. Would love to be in the berkshires for this event. They'll be measuring snow in feet with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This is a different system than other systems that we have dealt with. Wraparound snows are possible with this. It will depend on where the low occludes. All the models point to a rain event for the area with snow showers at the end. I wouldn't rely on the models to try to figure this out. Best to nowcast this and see how it progresses on Tuesday night/Wednesday but in general always plan on very little in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 the ensm forecast for the nao/ao show little if any blocking...February 26th 2010 had an ao at -4 for a long time...the nao was in a long negative stretch... I can think of six storms that had some snow on the back side of it this time of year...1968 was one of those years...It had some very cold air to work with...1957, 1959, 1992 and 1993...1993 was the second heaviest of the six...1964 had a storm that was cold rain that changed to rain and sleet for a long period and ended as a little snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Instead of focusing on a few possible snow showers the biggest impacts from this will be heavy rains, coastal flooding, and some strong wind gusts. This is going to be a long duration potent system with a few surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 lol relax man dynamic cooling will take care of this. We got a trend going on, the storm is showing more snow than yesterday. Let's see where we can go with this. Another lesson learned we should all acknowledge is that the trend is not always your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The 4KM NAM is indicating some convective potential Tuesday which could bring down stronger winds from aloft especially out across Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 another unusual storm system. considering the slow movement and tropical connection i'd be surprised if anyone ended up with under 2.5" of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 the models show the strongest wind energy occurring under 700mb. very atypical for this time of year. almost subtropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 the models show the strongest wind energy occurring under 700mb. very atypical for this time of year. almost subtropical Yeah, definitely a subtropical look. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14120706/64.html http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/14120700/59.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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