Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Gfs now has 1.75-2.25" Thru 12Z Thursday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120700/gfs_apcpn_neus_18.png Snow same timeframe Talk about a Bullseye! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120700/gfs_asnow_neus_19.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Thru 12Z Thursday gfs_apcpn_neus_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120700/gfs_apcpn_neus_18.png 12/26/10 type cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The GFS is notoriously warm in the BL when precipitation is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Nam/gfs just got very interesting with the back end/CCB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The GFS is notoriously warm in the BL when precipitation is falling. Has a nasty round of ICE.. this run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 00z GGEM is West of the GFS, tracks over Islip. It has like 2-4" of rain falling in 12 hours. Then continues north and we dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Nam/gfs just got very interesting with the back end/CCB... not to interesting since its the worst two models out there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The GFS is notoriously warm in the BL when precipitation is falling. This looks like a rain scenario to me til at least 74 hours...after that I don't know...its totally saturated at 60 hours when precip arrives, no room for evaporative cooling and winds have been ESE....I am somewhat worried about that 63-70 hour period because winds are 010-030 yet no cooling occurs in any layer...that could be dangerous if it occurred in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This looks like a rain scenario to me til at least 74 hours...after that I don't know...its totally saturated at 60 hours when precip arrives, no room for evaporative cooling and winds have been ESE....I am somewhat worried about that 63-70 hour period because winds are 010-030 yet no cooling occurs in any layer...that could be dangerous if it occurred in reality.What do you mean dangerous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This looks like a rain scenario to me til at least 74 hours...after that I don't know...its totally saturated at 60 hours when precip arrives, no room for evaporative cooling and winds have been ESE....I am somewhat worried about that 63-70 hour period because winds are 010-030 yet no cooling occurs in any layer...that could be dangerous if it occurred in reality. That is a good point, but if we get NW winds with the CCB, that's good for cold air advection and arguably more importantly, dry air advection to further help cooling when precipitation is falling since we can lower dews that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 What do you mean dangerous? Any margin of error and it would be snow in that period...but at 72 hours impossible to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us1028.php This is something to take a look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Something to keep in mind. SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z DECEMBER 2014 WSPOD NUMBER.....14-006 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE A62/ DROP 7 (34.0N 72.3W)/ 09/0000Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 00z ECM @ 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro looks colder Euro seems to be a really odd solution... Precipitation into Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro seems to be a really odd solution... Precipitation into Saturday! any wrap around snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro looks hacked by the NAM this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 any wrap around snows? I don't have access to those maps but just the solution itself is odd.. First cuts off at ACY and then retrogrades south towards oc md, then another wave forms and comes in LI and then retrogades towards TTN and at a certain point 850 temps are minus 5-8 and thicknesses sub 534 and raining with temps in the mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 So about that euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 So about that euro.... what about it? I didnt even see it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 2Nd low gives the area snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Action Sat http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=s_atlantic-wv-48# Energy Transfer? Hand-off http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrbw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Upton That is a LOT of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The 6Z GFS gives the immediate metro a few inches of snow out of this system - going to be interesting to see where the 12Z model runs go with this since this is such a dynamic situation developing - makes sense since the storm is being blocked by the huge banana high to the north - these types of setups can deliver some unexpected results here especially now that we are getting a little deeper into December http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120706/gfs_asnow_us_15.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 WPC sides with GFS for snow bullseye ATM Euro for track (edit) cropped image http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120706/gfs_asnow_neus_30.png Disco http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 WPC sides with GFS cropped image 12.jpg http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120706/gfs_asnow_neus_30.png Disco http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd You meant the other guidance. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THEPREFERRED SOLUTION WITH ITS TRACK UP THE COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTEDHOWEVER THAT EVEN THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THESURFACE LOW TRACK UP THE COAST OVER THE PAST 3 RUNS...WITH THISSOLUTION ALONG WITH THE UKMET BEING A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THENAM (CLOSEST TO THE COAST) AND THE GFS (FARTHEST OFFSHORE) WITHTHE LOW TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THEOPERATIONAL ECMWF/UKMET/NAM SOLUTIONS SLOW CONSIDERABLY THROUGH12Z WED...WITH THE SFC LOW MORE OR LESS STATIONARY JUST OFF THENJ-LONG ISLAND COAST. GIVEN THE PREFERRED FORECASTTRACK...THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL FARTHER INLAND FROM THE COAST...I.E. WEST OF THE BIGCITIES AND I-95 THROUGH SOUTHERN MAINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 WPC sides with GFS cropped image 12.jpg http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120706/gfs_asnow_neus_30.png Disco http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd The bust potential either way is larger then the Thanksgiving storm IMO since it is not very clear where that LP is going to track and stall out for how long ??? This is a work in progress and those WPC maps will probably change over the next day or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 You meant the other guidance. I stand corrected Bluewave t/y The GFS snow map syncs up real close to their 12 inch guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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