rcad1 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 How do the winds look??? Anyone think we're looking at high wind warning criteria or just advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The high res Euro snow maps show 20-30" over a large area from Northern PA up into NY State and parts of interior New England. It has parts of NE PA receiving over 4" liquid with this storm and anywhere from about 2" to as much as 3.5" of rain for the Tri-State area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The high res Euro snow maps show 20-30" over a large area from Northern PA up into NY State and parts of interior New England. It has parts of NE PA receiving over 4" liquid with this storm and anywhere from about 2" to as much as 3.5" of rain for the Tri-State area. Trip to Elk Mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 How do the winds look??? Anyone think we're looking at high wind warning criteria or just advisory? The high res Euro is showing surface winds mostly in the 15-25kt range at peak with gusts up to 50kts, especially along the coast. I'd say wind advisory criteria for sure, with possible HWW on the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yep...either going to get a boatload of rain or maybe slightly less rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Hour 84 on the Euro has 35kt surface gusts back to northeast PA with 50kts+ on the south shore of Suffolk County and 40-50kts at places covering the rest of LI, NYC and northern NJ and points north. This is an absolute beast aloft. If this verifies, between the rain from last night, the rain today and several inches of rain on Tuesday, we might be dealing with some river flooding issues and perhaps some power outages given the saturated ground and very strong wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Seriously, looks like us coasties'll miss this one, but the active storm track is encouraging as we step down towards a more favorable teleconnection pattern over the next few weeks. I'm confident that we'll get into the action before the month is out. Patience. Yes because 3" of rain and gusts to 65mph is missing the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Hour 84 on the Euro has 35kt surface gusts back to northeast PA with 50kts+ on the south shore of Suffolk County and 40-50kts at places covering the rest of LI, NYC and northern NJ and points north. This is an absolute beast aloft. If this verifies, between the rain from last night, the rain today and several inches of rain on Tuesday, we might be dealing with some river flooding issues and perhaps some power outages given the saturated ground and very strong wind gusts. My street is already flooded from an inch+ of rain and all the leaves in the street which aren't being picked up for 10 more days. If we get 2-3" more its going to be even worse by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 My street is already flooded from an inch+ of rain and all the leaves in the street which aren't being picked up for 10 more days. If we get 2-3" more its going to be even worse by Wednesday. From the NWS: IF THE EC`S SOLN DOES VERIFY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.25 INCH PWATS RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA IN AN EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK. ADDITIONALLY...IF THE HEAVY RAIN COINCIDES WITH HIGH TIDE...THE SITUATION WILL BE EXACERBATED. SEE HYDRO AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON QPF AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yes because 3" of rain and gusts to 65mph is missing the storm Oh, the humanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The high res Euro is showing surface winds mostly in the 15-25kt range at peak with gusts up to 50kts, especially along the coast. I'd say wind advisory criteria for sure, with possible HWW on the immediate coast. From the NWS:...WIND ADVSY IS POSSIBLE IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER WINDS DOWN BUT IT`S TOUGH ON A SLY FLOW UNLESS IT GETS FAIRLY WARM AT THE SFC. BEST CHC LOOKS LIKE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SCENARIO OVERALL TO DETERMINE THIS NOW. LOW LOOKS TOO WEAK TO REACH IT ON SUSTAINED WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yes because 3" of rain and gusts to 65mph is missing the storm the highest winds with this storm are going to be on the east and north side of it over long island and CT and the lower hudson valley if the current track holds this is very similar to a tropical system coming in from that direction but this is non tropical - also after the intial rain here - there should be a huge dry slot right over the metro at some point with the heavy precip more inland. Then as the storm begins to track north - northeast the winds will pick up here from a more northwest direction - but the main issue here is timing and how long if at all the storm stalls under that banana HP to the north........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The Funkiest Cluster Map ...we might ever see Cuba at 36hrs---- LOL http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif HWO -Upton http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ006&warncounty=NJC017&firewxzone=NJZ006&local_place1=Harrison%20NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=40.74431&lon=-74.16034#.VIOLwtLF-So http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 the highest winds with this storm are going to be on the east and north side of it over long island and CT and the lower hudson valley if the current track holds this is very similar to a tropical system coming in from that direction but this is non tropical - also after the intial rain here - there should be a huge dry slot right over the metro at some point with the heavy precip more inland. Then as the storm begins to track north - northeast the winds will pick up here from a more northwest direction - but the main issue here is timing and how long if at all the storm stalls under that banana HP to the north...........Look at the Euro wind progs and get back to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yes because 3" of rain and gusts to 65mph is missing the storm Easy there slugger. My post was clearly in reference to Dave-LI's 'in-the-game' and Pfl's witty boatloads-of-rain response to it. What I meant was that we miss the wintry precip this go around, but that the future looks bright going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Look at the Euro wind progs and get back to me this from Uptons AFD this afternoon Clyde - WIND ADVSY IS POSSIBLE IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER WINDS DOWN BUT IT'S TOUGH ON A SLY FLOW UNLESS IT GETS FAIRLY WARM AT THE SFC. BEST CHC LOOKS LIKE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 So the gfs is still out of the loop I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Nam Sim Radar http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-NAM-US-prec-radar-0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 2"plus QPF for NYC on the 21z SREF mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Low drifts south of LI on the NAM for days. Some frozen for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The Funkiest Cluster Map ...we might ever see Cuba at 36hrs---- LOL atl.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif HWO -Upton . http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ006&warncounty=NJC017&firewxzone=NJZ006&local_place1=Harrison%20NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=40.74431&lon=-74.16034#.VIOLwtLF-So http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif That sure is one clusterFunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hard knowing this will pretty much be an all rain event. If this had cold air, this would of been a storm to remember. So much moisture with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 NAM 0Z Simulated Radar Reflectivity http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014120700/namconus_ref_frzn_neus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That'll get the weenies all hot and bothered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The GFS came a good bit West again I believe, didn't really look at the 18z run. 1000mb just inside the benchmark. Looks like it closes off at H5 hour 75 right over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Nice weenie band develops in the cold sector right over the LHV, NE NJ, NYC and Western LI as the low rots over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Theoretically some areas could pick up some good snow as the system occludes. It's plenty cold aloft but the surface stays warm for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Nice weenie band develops in the cold sector right over the LHV, NE NJ, NYC and Western LI as the low rots over SNE. Yeah...Paste job for the Northern suburbs of NYC up through the Hudson Valley. Shades of 2/26/2010 with the orientation of the 850 line flirting with the CT/NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Gfs now has 1.75-2.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That'll get the weenies all hot and bothered. Yes it will dity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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