Zelocita Weather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Try this again....All overnight models still have storm except gfs (which still does shove precip into northeast). Many have it curving from the se into eastern New England....Gfs should turn today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 6z GEFS mean is more amplified. 500mb low closes off over Eastern NY at 126hr. Storm still gets going late and far east for us. But it's an improvement from prior GEFS runs. Several members below have a 500mb closed low south of op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This has all the ingredients of a NNE/CNY/NNY big time snow storm. Backed in powerhouse storms deliver to higher elevation areas especially with a retreating HP east of maine. SNE is the battle ground with this storm IMO. stale air mass and flow E from the HP system will be the fly in the ointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Depending on the exact evolution of the storm, longitude might be more important than latitude. The Catskills might snow while northern NH rains. While this looks nothing like 2010, it still retrogrades west on the Euro and will likely be an interesting storm to follow regardless of what it does for our area (probably not too much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00z UKMET A cold rain for the coastal areas, and frozen inland. No ideally cold HP located near quebec. Unless you want to bank on "dynamic cooling" to cool all columns to the coast. This is purely a NE/NNE/CNY event IMOId be putting down the KU cookbook for the next couple weeks from what the pattern is for next 10-14 days. Unless its a thread the needle event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 A cold rain for the coastal areas, and frozen inland. No ideally cold HP located near quebec. Unless you want to bank on "dynamic cooling" to cool all columns to the coast. This is purely a NE/NNE/CNY event IMO Id be putting down the KU cookbook for the next couple weeks from what the pattern is for next 10-14 days. Unless its a thread the needle event If the EURO/UKIE are correct you dont want to be in New England outside of NW Mountains. NJ/PA/NY State would have better chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 00z UKMET That's not that far off - a better antecedent airmass could have done it for the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The easterly fetch and winds ahead of the storm with a 1040 HP to the north could be the most interesting feature for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The easterly fetch and winds ahead of the storm with a 1040 HP to the north could be the most interesting feature for Long Island. Yeah, the GGEM had strong winds at 925mb on its 00z run..caught my attention yesterday at 12z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You can get a strong backend snow if the 500mb low closes off and the low occludes. 0z Euro was pretty close to doing this. See Dec. 2002 for an example of how a warm and rainy storm can quickly turn into heavy snow. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us1225.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You can get a strong backend snow if the 500mb low closes off and the low occludes. 0z Euro was pretty close to doing this. See Dec. 2002 for an example of how a warm and rainy storm can quickly turn into heavy snow. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us1225.php Ideally for this to work you want the 500mb Closed LP to east of LI. That occured in the Xmas 02' storm where parts of LI saw up to 12" of snow in less than 6 hrs in that wraparound band. Winds may also be a factor here on LI as well, however i am not relying on backend snows as Xmas 02' was really the last time a true backend snow event occured from NYC-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You can get a strong backend snow if the 500mb low closes off and the low occludes. 0z Euro was pretty close to doing this. See Dec. 2002 for an example of how a warm and rainy storm can quickly turn into heavy snow. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us1225.php Yes. A further east 00z Euro evolution would work. Notice how the 00z Euro dumped lots of CCB snow to our west and north. It's like a 2/26/10 type of evolution. You get the storm to phase with the polar energy, supplying cold air aloft, but retrograding and occluding further east. That way you can get a CCB via CAA on NW winds, as a 500mb low would close off to our south. Otherwise snow is going to be very tough to get for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Long range NAM obviously so take it for what it's worth, but it definitly looks to be on the Euro/GGEM/UKMET train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This has all the ingredients of a NNE/CNY/NNY big time snow storm. Backed in powerhouse storms deliver to higher elevation areas especially with a retreating HP east of maine. SNE is the battle ground with this storm IMO. stale air mass and flow E from the HP system will be the fly in the ointment This is a soaking rainstorm for SNE.. Think of 2/26/10. This looks to have a very similar setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Classic GFS confused run to me. It refuses to dig the energy like the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 2/26/10 00z 12/5/14 ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Classic GFS confused run to me. It refuses to dig the energy like the other models. ? It's about to consolidate and close off all that energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 WPC outlook 1002mb the bow needs rosin http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbg_conus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 ? It's about to consolidate and close off all that energy. The 500mb low on the GFS closes off over Buffalo, the EURO over Pittsburgh, a few hundred miles SW. The GFS develops a crappy low on the front and quickly accelerates it North. Like I said, it looks confused, and still not digging the energy like the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 2/26/10 00z 12/5/14 ECMWF Even yesterdays 12z Euro was a rainstorm at the coast with less than an inch at NYC and that was colder than 0z. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.784650314915562/784650268248900/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Even yesterdays12z Euro was a rainstorm at the coast with less than an inch at NYC and that was colder than 0z. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.784650314915562/784650268248900/?type=1&theater It would eventually change to snow as the low occludes. If the low bombs out further east, this could mean more wintry precip for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 2/26/10 00z 12/5/14 ECMWF I remember almost everyone was calling for mostly rain with this storm for NYC. I had a total of 18 inches of snow with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It would eventually change to snow as the low occludes. If the low bombs out further east, this could mean more wintry precip for the coast. Only at the very end which wouldn't be very much due to the initial warm push. That's why the 0Z Euro had under an inch in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I had zero rain on 2/26/10. 14" IMBY of heavy wet paste. As epic of a storm as that was, my ex up in West Milford had nearly 30" where the elevation helped with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Only at the very end which wouldn't be very much due to the initial warm push. That's why the 0Z Euro had under an inch in NYC. Banking on any type of wraparound/backlash snows at this storm is premature. HI-RES models like the EURO/RGEM/HRRR are pretty good at nailing these signatures under 48 hrs. (24 hours or less with the HRRR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Banking on any type of wraparound/backlash snows at this storm is premature. HI-RES models like the EURO/RGEM/HRRR are pretty good at nailing these signatures under 48 hrs. (24 hours or less with the HRRR) When you close off at H5 like that you're dealing with a horse of a different color. 2/26/10 basically snowed itself out overhead. Think of it the same way you do a cut off low in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 When you close off at H5 like that you're dealing with a horse of a different color. 2/26/10 basically snowed itself out overhead. Think of it the same way you do a cut off low in Spring. Agreed but the location of where the 500mb LP closes off as well is of utmost importance as well (2/25/10 & 12/25/02 prime examples) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 When you close off at H5 like that you're dealing with a horse of a different color. 2/26/10 basically snowed itself out overhead. Think of it the same way you do a cut off low in Spring. This is nothing even close to that day. For one we don't have and record breaking AO of -4.266 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z UKMET has even more of an easterly flow here Tues as the UL cuts off too far south over NC. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=0&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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