ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 GGEM is a partial phase job, which sucks since you don't end up with a good CCB potential on the backside. You really need a southern stream dominant system or a full on phase/retro job to get a decent event. I think the dominant southern stream idea is becoming less likely because we are seeing a trend of introducing more northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A few mentioned 2/26/10 One of the greatest nights of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euros gonna look like the 00z ens and the whines going on now will turn to fanny pats and elation until 18z runs take it over Nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 To be fair, I would not really label the GFS as very useful over the last several events an really don't think this is what we end up with either Did not mean for the GFS to be lumped in as useful. Can't remember the last time I looked at it first. It is probably the 5th piece of guidance I refer to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I know most people consider them unreliable but looking from strictly a snow maps perspective, the gem is producing more snowfall than it did last night at 00 z for most of interior western and northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 That's a pretty impressive airmass that gets in here Sunday night. You can really see how beneficial it would have been not to delay the storm another 24-36 hours and have it come in early Monday like some of the original depictions had it. It reminds me of the airmass in the 24 hours leading into the 12/16/07 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 it looks like the 12 UKmet is further west and weaker as well. Can't see specific temperature profiles but it's probably warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 it looks like the 12 UKmet is further west and weaker as well. Can't see specific temperature profiles but it's probably warmer.. Here's hour 120, hour 144 for some reason is still showing me yesterdays run despite everything else updating(Meteocentre all comes out at once so it's not that it's not out yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Did not mean for the GFS to be lumped in as useful. Can't remember the last time I looked at it first. It is probably the 5th piece of guidance I refer to. For sure, I just figured it was what you meant seeing it had just came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Ukie's a Rainer well into CNE..Terrible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Here is hr 144 on the Ukie and it does not look that bad with where that high is positioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A storm over Boston harbor is real uneventful anyways. 6hrs of precip and wind followed by meh. I know. Who cares. I mean, I'm sure doctors studying the transferral and subsequent incubation of various strains of venereal disease find that fascinating from a scientific standpoint, so why don't we pop the champagne and enjoy the hell out of it??! Right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Here is hr 144 on the Ukie and it does not look that bad with where that high is positioned Without seeing the thermal profiles, it's impossible to tell what interior CNE/NNE might get in that...it could be decent on that solution...it's crap for the coast given where the 120h panel is...but the coast has been a longshot in this ever since the onset got delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Without seeing the thermal profiles, it's impossible to tell what interior CNE/NNE might get in that...it could be decent on that solution...it's crap for the coast given where the 120h panel is...but the coast has been a longshot in this ever since the onset got delayed. Yup, No thermal profiles to be had just going off where the High and Low is on the map, I would think inland areas would do well in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Jeez I wonder what the euro does after seeing all that. It matters none for me, but for CNE and NNE it sure does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Jeez I wonder what the euro does after seeing all that. It matters none for me, but for CNE and NNE it sure does. Well if its more like the GGEM i think we may know the results, May be more like the Ukie like the other day and then again it may have its own track that may be totally different, Guess that covers it.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Thought this was supposed to be a Pretty Strong storm as it has been modeled up until today. Now it's strength isn't anything to impressive. Certainly has taken a turn for the "UNeventful" for most of SNE today. Oh well, no big deal since it's only the 5th of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looking at how far south the Ukmet closes off the 5H low, I'm sure that the northern stream is dominating there. Without seeing the thermal profiles, it's impossible to tell what interior CNE/NNE might get in that...it could be decent on that solution...it's crap for the coast given where the 120h panel is...but the coast has been a longshot in this ever since the onset got delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 correct me if I'm wrong but a UK track from near the Jersey coast north-eastward to near Boston Harbor but with a weaker low pressure center wouldn't that have less of an ability to bring in quite as much warm air aloft with the storm being weaker even though the track is further west than before.I suppose that could make somewhat of a difference for portions of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm glad I have some longitude here, but I'm only about as far north in latitude as Nashua, NH so if it trends even further west I'm cooked also. Jeez I wonder what the euro does after seeing all that. It matters none for me, but for CNE and NNE it sure does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 My most extreme case predicition for the Euro would be over SNE and bend back to like the Dacks, stacked under the 5H low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Given the trends today.. Anyone douth of the NH border should probably not pay much attention unless they like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Looks like the GGEM has a bit more interaction with some of the polar energy and tries to phase it in. Doesn't do much for our coastal areas, but just NW of NYC gets a thump of heavy snow at the start of the event. That could be an interesting way to get this cooler if we were able to get that energy more involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I bet the 7H low is closed and pretty far west though...that could torch the mid levels. correct me if I'm wrong but a UK track from near the Jersey coast north-eastward to near Boston Harbor but with a weaker low pressure center wouldn't that have less of an ability to bring in quite as much warm air aloft with the storm being weaker even though the track is further west than before.I suppose that could make someone of difference for portions of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This could be an example of the joke post I made last night...if somehow this becomes a more La Nina esque solution with the northern stream dominating, the GFS may end up being right, but for the completely wrong reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 depends which foreign guidance. The GGEM (which admittedly I don't put much stock in...) has been a rainier system for a few cycles now. Not convinced - either way - that this thread doesn't end up being a lesson in weather appreciation more than a snow hunt. Definitely will need an infusion of N-stream dynamics to get a snowier result, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 depends which foreign guidance. The GGEM (which admittedly I don't put much stock in...) has been a rainier system for a few cycles now. Not convinced - either way - that this thread doesn't end up being a lesson in weather appreciation more than a snow hunt. Definitely will need an infusion of N-stream dynamics to get a snowier result, tho. If you held a gun to my head I'd guess the Euro is a faster stronger version of the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z GGEM has a front end dump for the interior, plently of IP/ZR to go around as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z GGEM has a front end dump for the interior, plently of IP/ZR to go around as well You can see that high doing some dirty work. I like my isobars kinky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 depends which foreign guidance. The GGEM (which admittedly I don't put much stock in...) has been a rainier system for a few cycles now. Not convinced - either way - that this thread doesn't end up being a lesson in weather appreciation more than a snow hunt. Definitely will need an infusion of N-stream dynamics to get a snowier result, tho. Yeah I think that is the way we are leaning now to try and get snow...originally when this was a bit more southern stream and the N stream wasn't as strong, we were able to pulse that moisture right up into an impressive cold wedge...but now that doesn't look very realistic with the latest trends. I think the best bet is for a full on phase and get a few hours of cranking snow from the ULL/mid-levels deepening just east of us...it's probably rain in there too, but given the somewhat hostile pattern, its really a case of "Take what you can get" rather than being picky. CNE/NNE are def still the most likely spots to get decent snows...as has been the case from th every start of this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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