JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That's 50°F at the surface lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GFS is more like a plume of moisture moving NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Is a surface low tracking over the VT/NH boarder any good................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 LOL in NNE on the GFS. Those low levels can eat it. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The GFS is as ugly as you can get, Floods us with warm air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GFS is a fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GFS is a POS, We await the foreigners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 The GFS is as ugly as you can get, Floods us with warm air It's a completely different scenario than foreign guidance...it's basically a glorified clipper passing to our northwest...it tries to redevelop the thing almost overhead, but obviously that is too late and you end up with strong SE flow which would erase any type of CAD...given how far off it is from other guidance, it's probably a total waste of time dissecting the output. The only thing it did notable on this run was dig the northern stream deeper...but still not nearly as deep as runs like Euro./Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's a completely different scenario than foreign guidance...it's basically a glorified clipper passing to our northwest...it tries to redevelop the thing almost overhead, but obviously that is too late and you end up with strong SE flow which would erase any type of CAD...given how far off it is from other guidance, it's probably a total waste of time dissecting the output. The only thing it did notable on this run was dig the northern stream deeper...but still not nearly as deep as runs like Euro./Ukie. Yeah we need to see that dig further south or it will be a problem it seems if it remains the main player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The only thing it did notable on this run was dig the northern stream deeper...but still not nearly as deep as runs like Euro./Ukie. 500mb low went from Montreal at 06z to Buffalo at 12z. Euro was over West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Para? Not running until Monday due to maintenance/upgrades. Rumor on the street is that they're upgrading it's computing power because verification has been abysmal, but that's a pure rumor from another board and doesn't have much support behind it(although it does come from a fairly reliable source). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You all amaze me. The majority here have a snow fetish instead of a storm fetish. All upset and whining that the useful guidance brings you rain instead of snow. Shouldn't we all just be excited that the probability of a storm occurring sometime next Tuesday is high??? I mean a 988 low sitting over Boston Harbor with an 85 kt 850 jet moving through sounds pretty cool to me. A few mentioned 2/26/10....I would take that in a heartbeat. Sure it was dissappointing from a snow perspective. But it was fascinating from a meteorological perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You all amaze me. The majority here have a snow fetish instead of a storm fetish. All upset and whining that the useful guidance brings you rain instead of snow. Shouldn't we all just be excited that the probability of a storm occurring sometime next Tuesday is high??? I mean a 988 low sitting over Boston Harbor with an 85 kt 850 jet moving through sounds pretty cool to me. A few mentioned 2/26/10....I would take that in a heartbeat. Sure it was dissappointing from a snow perspective. But it was fascinating from a meteorological perspective. I can't wait to hear the wind roar aloft while I'm sitting in mid 30s under the inversion. Different folks different strokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 You all amaze me. The majority here have a snow fetish instead of a storm fetish. All upset and whining that the useful guidance brings you rain instead of snow. Shouldn't we all just be excited that the probability of a storm occurring sometime next Tuesday is high??? I mean a 988 low sitting over Boston Harbor with an 85 kt 850 jet moving through sounds pretty cool to me. A few mentioned 2/26/10....I would take that in a heartbeat. Sure it was dissappointing from a snow perspective. But it was fascinating from a meteorological perspective. Yes, this is true...you got your answer as to why nobody is really excited if this ends up as a strong rainstorm. I actually do think in some of those scenarios though, the snow would occur at the end. Many are skeptical of that but remember when we got backlash twice last year despite many saying "it never works out"? The common denominator in backlash or wrap around snows is having a potent 5H low just south of you or SE. Many of the deeper scenarios have that. I'm sure many would rather go wire to wire with heavy snow, but beggers can't be choosers in a crappy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You all amaze me. The majority here have a snow fetish instead of a storm fetish. All upset and whining that the useful guidance brings you rain instead of snow. Shouldn't we all just be excited that the probability of a storm occurring sometime next Tuesday is high??? I mean a 988 low sitting over Boston Harbor with an 85 kt 850 jet moving through sounds pretty cool to me. A few mentioned 2/26/10....I would take that in a heartbeat. Sure it was dissappointing from a snow perspective. But it was fascinating from a meteorological perspective. To be fair, I would not really label the GFS as very useful over the last several events an really don't think this is what we end up with either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 To be fair, I would not really label the GFS as very useful over the last several events an really don't think this is what we end up with either I have to agree with you whole heartedly on that. Oh and by the way....Northern Aroostook(Sinclair) was -13f this morning!! That place is another world!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 From looking at the crummy UKMET maps on the french site, it appears that it's delayed the event another 12 hours or so. I'll post Meteocentre when it's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I have to agree with you whole heartedly on that. Oh and by the way....Northern Aroostook(Sinclair) was -13f this morning!! That place is another world!!! Yup, Lol, So isn't estcourt station at -20°F and Big Black River -18°F, But it was 5.5°F here so not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 GGEM looks like a CT River Valley runner. It's colder on the front end though, so probably a decent thump for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Getting ugly so far with the 12Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Congrats Syracuse on the GGEM. Low gets going much further south than GFS and tracks over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A storm over Boston harbor is real uneventful anyways. 6hrs of precip and wind followed by meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Retreating highs suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Over/under on how long it takes Kevin to proclaim this a HV runner after seeing the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Over/under on how long it takes Kevin to proclaim this a HV runner after seeing the GGEM? Over/under on how fast it will be deleted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Retreating highs suck. Yup. Moving this back 24 hours killed it for a lot of folks really unless you're going to count on back end which while this is a good setup for it, it's usually tricky to rely on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Over/under on how fast it will be deleted? Hum, I'll go 90 seconds, you guys are on top of your game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Retreating highs suck. Yup. Synoptically - meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 GGEM looks like a CT River Valley runner. It's colder on the front end though, so probably a decent thump for CNE/NNE. It's also pretty weak...SLP is only 1004 or so mb over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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