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Dec 9-10 storm threat


ORH_wxman

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Could we have gotten this much precip on the CP in the form of snow? It would have been incredible. I know we've mentioned the high slipping away before the storm arrived, but would it have precipitated this much if it hadn't? This is crazy.

 No.

Would have been like an 1" of qpf probably.

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AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MAINE AND NRN NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 092149Z - 100315Z

SUMMARY...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN WRN
PORTIONS OF NRN MAINE AND NRN NH...SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MAINE
THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEEPENING OFF THE LONG ISLAND
COAST IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY
ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CT/RI THROUGH THE EVENING.
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS CNTRL NH
TO W-CNTRL MAINE...POSSIBLY RESULTING FROM ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A NARROW WEDGE OF SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SFC AIR THAT
IS HOLDING EAST OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
THIS BAND TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EXPAND TO THE NE ACROSS NRN MAINE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP
SATURATED...NEAR-FREEZING/ISOTHERMAL LAYER SUPPORTING EFFICIENT SNOW
AGGREGATION PROCESSES BENEATH A MODESTLY DEEP AND NEARLY SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AROUND THE 600-500-MB LAYER. THESE FACTORS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR...GREATEST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NRN MAINE.

SE PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
COULD EXPERIENCE A CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN BEFORE LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...AREAS GENERALLY N OF A LINE FROM LEW-AUG-WVL ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH 04Z. AN EXPANSIVE DRY
SLOT BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER NYC
AND LONG ISLAND PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD OVERTAKE THE AFFECTED
AREA AFTER 04Z FROM SW TO NE.

..COHEN/CONIGLIO.. 12/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   44886907 44237001 44037081 44297148 44867141 45257100
            46046978 46346891 46276845 45916794 45386804 44886907

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Not sure if this was mentioned yet, but 18Z RGEM increased snowfall quite a bit in E NY, VT, and W MA in places that got heavy sleet on the 12Z run and/or dryslotted further east.  Could be picking up better on recent trends wrt deformation band setting up over the Hudson Valley than some of the other short-term models. 

 

12Z:

post-378-0-73964700-1418164949_thumb.gif

 

18Z:

post-378-0-31284000-1418164954_thumb.gif

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Yeah at 32, heavy wet snow.  The heaviest band is right over this area

 

HRRR now seems to want to keep the deformation near here.

  

Ditto with 32 and heavy wet snow....incredible band moving through....some of the largest snowflakes I've ever seen up here too.

Congrats! You guys had a long wait today. lol

Hope you can get towards low end (or better) of your forecast by tomorrow.

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Raining again in ALB.  Waterlogged concrete coating quickly melting.  Sidewalk slush puddles and water pouring from melting trees.  Spoils the evening snow walk.  Up a few hundred feet probably has a solid covering.  The hills west of town must have gotten a good hit.  Might be a few spots that reach double digit snowfall.

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The soundings start to support snow over most of interior SNE by later this afternoon and especially evening...but I actually think the best shot at some accumulations is tomorrow. As we get some of that vort energy rotating around, the soundings become pretty nice looking...we even have a saturated isothermal layer from about 850mb to 700mb near -10C to -12C...that is going to produce really nice dendrites in any bursts of snow.

 

I don't think we'll see an organized precip shield...but scattered bursts and patches of SN- could produce some light accumulations. The wind direction calls for some enhancement on the west slopes of course.,,so that would be the best area to get anything over an inch or two...but the rest of the region can try their luck. The low level lapse rates become decently steep as well.

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The soundings start to support snow over most of interior SNE by later this afternoon and especially evening...but I actually think the best shot at some accumulations is tomorrow. As we get some of that vort energy rotating around, the soundings become pretty nice looking...we even have a saturated isothermal layer from about 850mb to 700mb near -10C to -12C...that is going to produce really nice dendrites in any bursts of snow.

 

I don't think we'll see an organized precip shield...but scattered bursts and patches of SN- could produce some light accumulations. The wind direction calls for some enhancement on the west slopes of course.,,so that would be the best area to get anything over an inch or two...but the rest of the region can try their luck. The low level lapse rates become decently steep as well.

 

Agree with this. A really nice look on the soundings. I could also see some "sound ehancement" or even "sound effect" snow with a SW flow in the boundary layer and a decent delta T from the inversion to the Sound temp. 

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