RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 where's my 5-inch front end thump???!!!!! DIT was right on this one, he called for rain all the way up to Montreal days ago and that appears quite likely to happen. Holiday Inn FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 That and how quickly the lower level cold gets taken over as well. Apparently the models nailed this one with warmth... Models severely under-estimated the low level cold for this event...which is often the case. The mid-level warmth can go both ways IMHO. Usually when it busts cold, there's big time omega and you typically want to see a little upstream ridging mini-block...this event didn't really have that. So while the low level cold was very impressive...the 850-900mb level didn't have enough resistance...despite some good low level damming. I had speculated yesterday that the warm layer being so low could be affected by the cold dome...but by about 03z-06z last night, it appeared that even better CAD than modeled still wasn't denying that 900mb layer...which has resulted in some of the most inverted soundings I've seen in quite some time. Uusually you will not see a sounding this inverted that low to the ground..its usually more up around 925-950mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You are right. A lot of unreadable posts. Gonna have to time some storms perfectly with the cold air. Like this one was 24 hours too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 where's my 5-inch front end thump???!!!!! DIT was right on this one, he called for rain all the way up to Montreal days ago and that appears quite likely to happen. Who told you that you were getting a 5 inch thump in Westminster? You must have not read much in here. It was possible it could bust positive that direction there, but that was definitely not the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You think that is inverted, look at GYX. I honestly didn't expect to see the 950 layer just succumb, but retreating highs FTL. As feared. Low level cold did hang tough. So you see how this complicated things. Retreating high makes you think CAD will weaken, but enough of an ageostrophic flow existed so that the lower 1500' was going to be colder than models had. Models were right to warm the 950-900 layer...but sometimes that isn't the case with such strong ageostrophic flow. In this case, the ageo flow was more pronounced in the lower levels...just not enough HP in a spot near Maine to keep the flow more E-NE at 950 and lock in colder air. However, it's cold enough at 850 to sustain snow. Go figure. What I could see happening from the Lakes Region to interior Maine is perhaps a flip to paste when the good lift finally gets here. It's a race to offset the warming, but the GYX sounding isn't a torch. It will warm, but this may be an interesting battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You guys are talking about differences of .5C to 1C. That is very difficult to decipher when models are everywhere. Yeah it's like 1C over like 6000ft of atmosphere. Could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 You think that is inverted, look at GYX. I honestly didn't expect to see the 950 layer just succumb, but retreating highs FTL. As feared. Low level cold did hang tough. So you see how this complicated things. Retreating high makes you think CAD will weaken, but enough of an ageostrophic flow existed so that the lower 1500' was going to be colder than models had. Models were right to warm the 950-900 layer...but sometimes that isn't the case with such strong ageostrophic flow. In this case, the ageo flow was more pronounced in the lower levels...just not enough HP in a spot near Maine to keep the flow more E-NE at 950 and lock in colder air. However, it's cold enough at 850 to sustain snow. Go figure. What I could see happening from the Lakes Region to interior Maine is perhaps a flip to paste when the good lift finally gets here. It's a race to offset the warming, but the GYX sounding isn't a torch. It will warm, but this ay be an interesting battle. Wow, yeah, thats even more ridiculous. If that high had held on maybe another 6-12 hours, then we would have seen the damming stronger through 950mb is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sucks to see ZR up to Killington. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sucks to see ZR up to Killington. Ugly. Might have to go as far north as Jay Peak.they should do well over the next 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You guys are talking about differences of .5C to 1C. That is very difficult to decipher when models are everywhere. Models overall were all over the board with this one, But the cold air at the surface remains up here closer to HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Might have to go as far north as Jay Peak.they should do well over the next 48hrs.Like Scott said, this is lower level junk with crappy nucleation. When the big mid level lift comes in NNE should flip to snow before the mid level 0C pushes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Like Scott said, this is lower level junk with crappy nucleation. When the big mid level lift comes in NNE should flip to snow before the mid level 0C pushes through. Good to see Plymouth snow. I hope that happens there. Banking on cloud physics and laws of thermodynamics to help me out..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The question here is, When that heavier burst gets here that working its way NW right now from the GOM, It looks to start as sleet/zr and see if it flips to snow which i think it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Like Scott said, this is lower level junk with crappy nucleation. When the big mid level lift comes in NNE should flip to snow before the mid level 0C pushes through.Snowing for you yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The question here is, When that heavier burst gets here that working its way NW right now from the GOM, It looks to start as sleet/zr and see if it flips to snow which i think it will fingers crossed. I'm not looking forward to the skating rink camp road/driveway tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 fingers crossed. I'm not looking forward to the skating rink camp road/driveway tonite. Well it just started here as zr, I just went outside and almost to a digger, That's all i would need with my back 23°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well it just started here as zr, I just went outside and almost to a digger, That's all i would need with my back 23°F Up to 25F with a 1.5F/Hr rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Snowing for you yet?no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 PWM (personal) obs: 8am 27° frizzle, 11am same. Cold air hanging tough at the surface. toller65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 In a sense I can see the frustration given ample cold and when a better pattern comes in we still need nao for the big storms. But even in nao patterns, cutters can happen. Snow is above normal to date for most of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sleet and 31 out here. I get flakes mixing when its heavier. Maybe we still have a shot to flip this to snow when the heavier stuff pivots up but looking increasingly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Who told you that you were getting a 5 inch thump in Westminster? You must have not read much in here. It was possible it could bust positive that direction there, but that was definitely not the most likely scenario. True True, I just feel the general consensus was that we'd at least get a net gain in snow on the season, when most of us in fact didn't even get a flake. Tough situation to forecast though when dealing the tenths of a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I did say I could see a scenario where the Rt 2 corridor could get a quick 2-4 hr pasting, but that certainly wasn't high confidence. It's not easy when the difference is less than 1C within a 200mb layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The latest HRRR think we flip this to snow, but I'm not counting on it. The model jumps around every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It's out here that the bust is really big if we don't get any snow. My forecast was 8-14 inches . LOL. But it was always gonna be the sharpest of gradients. True True, I just feel the general consensus was that we'd at least get a net gain in snow on the season, when most of us in fact didn't even get a flake. Tough situation to forecast though when dealing the tenths of a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 First call: 48 hours Monday 00Z through Wed 00Z BDL: 1 TOLLAND 1.5 CEF 2 BAF 2 ORH Airport 4.5 HUBBARDSTON 5.5 GREENFIELD'380' 6.5 SHELBURNE 9.5 PiTTSFIELD 9.5 SAVOY 14 I'm not familiar enough with eastern mass to make a call out there. Could be a thin glaze of glaze/ IP on top of the snow as well and I would probably bring down the high temperatures about 2-4 degrees on Tuesday from what Taunton is putting out but they are the experts. Tuesday morning commute impacts possibly NW of 84 and especially north of the Pike. Im going with a bit more of a thump than some of the modeling with the cold air in place at the onset. Bust potential with sightly warmer or colder profiles. have to take accountability here this was a horrible call. Thankfully I did not put anything else on Facebook or mention this to anyone else. I did mention the bust potential with slightly warmer or colder profiles but still an absolutely horrible job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 have to take accountability here this was a horrible call. Thankfully I did not put anything else on Facebook or mention this to anyone else. I did mention the bust potential with slightly warmer or colder profiles but still an absolutely horrible jobNobody had a good call, so don't sweat it. This storm has been impossible to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 OK we have all Snow now and 31. Hope it lasts for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Who told you that you were getting a 5 inch thump in Westminster? You must have not read much in here. It was possible it could bust positive that direction there, but that was definitely not the most likely scenario. I'll take this over Dec 1996 every time...though the weather here on the cp is frightful, at least the hill tops aren't anymore delightful....let it rain, let it rain, let it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 OK we have all Snow now and 31. Hope it lasts for awhile. Is it snowing in Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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