Cold Miser Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The weird thing about the NECN snow map is that during the forecast the simulated radar they use doesn't support snow amounts anywhere near that high. It looked like rain up through to Burlington, VT through the first half of the discussion. Then up comes the snow map with 6-12 inches for Montpellier to Burlington. Map is through PM Thurs., so maybe... But I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Much of that is based on the wrap around in NNE and the ULL snows for the rest of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 We need the ULL to tuck under CT/LI for a time in order to get a few inches. Otherwise it's just going to be scattered stuff and no real accumulation. Some guidance tries to do this before drifting it north but it's close. Some guidance doesn't get it far enough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think this one is heading for marginal event all the way up to PF. Oh it is...NAM is real warm for 12z straight to NNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Also Euro with the second low..keeps snow around even longer..You just get the sense there's going to be some pleasant surprises with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Also Euro with the second low..keeps snow around even longer..You just get the sense there's going to be some pleasant surprises with this. Don't get your hopes up with ULL snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Don't get your hopes up with ULL snows. I'm not locking anything in..i just have a gut feeling many places get some snow out of it. There's a lot of energy pivoting around and there's a few embedded sw/s that may help enhance things..We'll see how it all shakes out I will say I bet there's a zone or 2(who knows where in SNE) that sees 3-6 inches of "surprise" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It's funny reading Tolland getting more positive and PF 300 miles to his north getting more negative! This is a nowcasting event, there are going to be surprises, good and bad. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It's funny reading Tolland getting more positive and PF 300 miles to his north getting more negative! This is a nowcasting event, there are going to be surprises, good and bad. Book it. Well he's talking about today with the WAA snow. Everything with that has trended warmer..so he's correct. it started as zr just about everywhere. I'm referring to what happens later tomorrow evening into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Maybe this cold air hangs on longer than expected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well he's talking about today with the WAA snow. Everything with that has trended warmer..so he's correct. it started as zr just about everywhere. I'm referring to what happens later tomorrow evening into Friday Yeah its essentially 2 different events. I think the ULL will surprise someone, just you never know until its actually happening. Someone may pull a quick 3-6" out of that alone, most likely somewhere in upstate NY but I could see it wrapping into SNE/CNE. NNE will ironically be the last place to scour the warmth out once it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think the areas that were marginal are going to be cooked, The obs down where you guys are in SNE are not very ispiring even out towards the berks and that area had been modeled for the most part to have some decent snow, Its amazing how fast the mid levels are getting torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NAM has had some great run to run consistency, lol. Prior to 12z tomorrow the 6z run had around 0.7" of liquid equiv...now the 12z run has 2.2" prior to 12z tomorrow. So not only is this a struggle to forecast p-type, the impacts could be vastly different based on the quantity that falls. Even 0.5-0.7" LE of IP/ZR on the mountain would be much different than over 2" worth of it, haha. That NAM run is like a crippling ice storm for someone up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yeah its essentially 2 different events. I think the ULL will surprise someone, just you never know until its actually happening. Someone may pull a quick 3-6" out of that alone, most likely somewhere in upstate NY but I could see it wrapping into SNE/CNE. NNE will ironically be the last place to scour the warmth out once it gets there. It very well could be snowing in and around NYC while it's raining in parts of NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 okay let's get this first part over with down here and try to have some fun with ULL tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Maybe this cold air hangs on longer than expected....Enjoy the 34F +RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yikes...the new NAM has most areas rain except for like Sugarloaf and the MWN summit by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yikes...the new NAM has most areas rain except for like Sugarloaf and the MWN summit by 6pm. hires_ref_neng_12.png snow cancel. i guess i can go back to work now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 snow cancel. i guess i can go back to work now. I am starting to learn that It is best to always overestimate the mid level warm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I am starting to learn that It is best to always overestimate the mid level warm surge. That and how quickly the lower level cold gets taken over as well. Apparently the models nailed this one with warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That and how quickly the lower level cold gets taken over as well. Apparently the models nailed this one with warmth... Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You guys are talking about differences of .5C to 1C. That is very difficult to decipher when models are everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Huh? The cold hasn't held on as long as expected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The cold hasn't held on as long as expected here. The cold at the surface held longer than any model had. Where have you been the last two days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The cold at the surface held longer than any model had. Where have you been the last two days? I thought it was supposed to hold on until early afternoon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I thought it was supposed to hold on until early afternoon.... Where you are? MHT is still 31 with ZR. Looks right to me. All models yesterday were too warm, but they had the idea of warming things up after 10am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I has a feeling we will have alot of these this winter if we can't get blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 where's my 5-inch front end thump???!!!!! DIT was right on this one, he called for rain all the way up to Montreal days ago and that appears quite likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Where you are? MHT is still 31 with ZR. Looks right to me. All models yesterday were too warm, but they had the idea of warming things up after 10am or so. Amherst, near 101A and rt 122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I has a feeling we will have alot of these this winter if we can't get blocking. You are right. A lot of unreadable posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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