TalcottWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 15-21z tomorrow on the 0z RGEM has a nice enhancement signal from interior ne ma to south of portland maine as the warmth works up the coastline originating from sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 33* for 6 hours here, drizzle for last 3, nothing frozen. But, I hearing some reports and it seem that just 10/12 miles to north and west it is icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro looks just a tick colder than 12z at 850...but its really small difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro looks just a tick colder than 12z at 850...but its really small difference.5H underneath, wrap around stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 This mist I'm getting reminds me a little of the Feb 23-28, 2010 "events". On the mostly dry day between the two events, we were socked and foggy over the deep wet snow with mist much of the day and temps around 32-33. Much colder now at 22 of course. Then we quickly went to pounding wet snow once event 2 moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 EURO initial thumper the dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 0z Euro forms another low just east of LI at hour 48. This run has a lot of snow for the New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Lol Euro, somebody going to be surprised when they wake up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The Euro is nice, but the dream amounts of qpf around here came way down. Gone is my 1.7" from the front end...replaced by maybe .9". If that second area of moisture it wraps back is real, it would make up for a lot of it. But that could be gone on the next run. With part II it balloons to 1.8' total here.Somehow I think that's getting cut back a bit on subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 So the Euro puts out a good 10 inches plus of front end in a lot the Berkshires. Meanwhile a few hours ago ALY changed their snowfall map and dropped the central-northern Berkshires to 2-4 inches and the south county area to under 1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The Euro is nice, but the dream amounts of qpf around here came way down. Gone is my 1.7" from the front end...replaced by maybe .9". If that second area of moisture it wraps back is real, it would make up for a lot of it. But that could be gone on the next run. With part II it balloons to 1.8' total here.Somehow I think that's getting cut back a bit on subsequent runs. Yeah Euro really cut back on that initial band of Fronto forcing lifting northward, and shunted it ENE. Previous runs had us around 1.0" prior to 6z Wed, now it's around 0.5-0.6". As I've been saying that initial band is key as that's where the bulk of accums will happen. 6z GFS has really backed off with only 0.5" from Rangley, ME to Middlebury, VT prior to the mixing. That's essentially an advisory level event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 6z NAM came in much warmer than 0z...all rain here with torched low levels. I like the advisory for here. It looks like a sloppy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 ALY is hugging the warmer 6Z runs and dropped forecast to up to an inch. I have a 2 hour delay at my school....not sure what good that will do lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 6z NAM came in much warmer than 0z...all rain here with torched low levels. I like the advisory for here. It looks like a sloppy mess. This system may have a very narrow zone of real impactful snow, with more advisory level stuff on either side of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro really interesting from Wed nite into Fri nite..it develops that 2nd low..and depending on where you are and your BL has snow and /or rain for much of the time. It continues to show that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro snow map gives Me 12-18" and ALY NWS an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm surprised ALY didn't go Warning for SVT...there's some significant elevations there for inhabited elevations and main roads up over 2kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looks like the warmer solutions are going to win out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looks like the warmer solutions are going to win out Temps are already on the rise w/o any meaningful precip in here. We'll see how strong the mid-level warm push is but I'm not sure we see many spots in NNE break double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 870mb .6C layer is starting us with freezing rain and sleet. Roads are turning to an instant sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You sometimes see the extension of the Whites referred to as the Blue Mountains on some topo maps. It's not widely referenced though. More likely you'll see the Mahoosucs for near Sunday River and maybe the Bigelow Range for near Sugarloaf. Then farther north you have the Boundary Mountains along the international border. All generally part of the Longfellow Mountains. Confusing right? Then on to Katahdin, which stands nearly alone. Still upper teens here, though that's up from 10F at 9 PM last evening. I'm guessing at 6-8" of paste followed by sufficient rain-with-catspaws to reduce it to 4" slush. Still looks to be a net gain in snow depth, if not quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Until Omega moves in the marginal areas will be frzdz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Man the HRRR and RAP are incredibly marginal everywhere...though a line from like Sunday River to Sugarloaf and north look to have the highest chance of good snowfall prior to mixed. I'm far from sold here, especially in town. There's sneaky warmth at 950-875mb in a lot of spots that are forecast to get warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Doing some nowcasting I like the 6z GFS over the 6Z NAM wrt timing and look of the precip shield. However at least in NYC metro/NJ it appears to be underdoing the QPF. (Shows 0.30-0.35" between 12-15z when all three NYC ASOS has 0.22"+ last hour). Looks either overdone or the timing is off for S CT and RI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not bad at all. ULL snows are fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not bad at all. ULL snows are fun Good god...19" in Rutland and 15" in BTV? That map doesn't seem to get the east or northeast wind downslopes into those areas. There is absolutely zero chance of 19" at RUT and only 12" at Rangley. BTV threw their hands up and said we don't know this morning: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS AS OF 600 AM. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS THE SLV TODAY BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION. REST OF FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED AND WE`RE MOVING INTO A WAIT AND SEE MODE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. YOU CAN SLICE THE CAKE A HUNDRED DIFFERENT WAYS AND COME UP WITH A HUNDRED DIFFERENT ANSWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Good god...19" in Rutland and 15" in BTV? That map doesn't seem to get the east or northeast wind downslopes into those areas. There is absolutely zero chance of 19" at RUT and only 12" at Rangley. BTV threw their hands up and said we don't know this morning: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS AS OF 600 AM. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS THE SLV TODAY BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION. REST OF FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED AND WE`RE MOVING INTO A WAIT AND SEE MODE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. YOU CAN SLICE THE CAKE A HUNDRED DIFFERENT WAYS AND COME UP WITH A HUNDRED DIFFERENT ANSWERS. Punt formation on first down. Sometimes you have to play for field position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looking at the thickness profiles......can't help but notice how far north the 540 line goes out west. It's off the top of the maps! We are narrowly avoiding a mega-torch with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The weird thing about the NECN snow map is that during the forecast the simulated radar they use doesn't support snow amounts anywhere near that high. It looked like rain up through to Burlington, VT through the first half of the discussion. Then up comes the snow map with 6-12 inches for Montpellier to Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think this one is heading for marginal event all the way up to PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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