Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Ok that NAM run does produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 0z RGEM moved east from 12z and look colder 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You've got 12z there twice I believe. To put some numbers to what people are talking about on the NAM, it's got 1-3" for all of SNE on Thursday away from the immediate coastline(Like 2-3 miles away at most). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 No QPF posts from Queen PF on this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 0z RGEM moved east from 12z and look colder 12z 0z Colder rain for you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You've got 12z there twice I believe. To put some numbers to what people are talking about on the NAM, it's got 1-3" for all of SNE on Thursday away from the immediate coastline(Like 2-3 miles away at most). Nope 0z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Colder rain for you and me Pretty much after some snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 RGEM hits second wave hard too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 RGEM hits second wave hard too Would you be able to show it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nope 0z and 12z That's weird, it was showing up as 12z twice for me, fixed itself now though. Pretty sizable shift east considering the lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Man, tough forecast for ENY and WMA. The NAM dumps a ton of QPF, mostly frozen and then lingers the deform near ALB. The column looks really marginal with almost any ptype possible. The hills could get 20" if the NAM is right with valleys under the deform still capable of warning snows... possibly lingering right through Wed night or beyond. On the other hand, if other guidance (GFS, CMC) is right the deform could rotate west and valleys get downsloped with rain and then dryslot. Here in the deep valley in ALB I would not be shocked to get 10" of paste or a slushy half inch and then a diurnal dusting on Wed night. I don't think it will be clear what's going to happen until it's already happening. Drive up to Thatcher looks likely. I'm leaning towards a light mix changing to a brief, intense snow thump, changing to rain and then dryslot... with the deform rotating west into the W Catskills up through the S Dacks and into VT. I think the low will tuck in tight. Lingering wraparound looks suspect to me. Tell me about it, lol. I could see this going either way here, but the soundings are a tad warm for my liking. As a result, it could be a cold rain with mangled flakes as opposed to a blue snow bomb. Hopefully dynamics will win and overwhelm the low level warm layer during the heavier part of the front end dump. I'd feel better if I was up at 2K in the northern Berkshires or S VT, where they'll probably get 10-15". Maybe a bit more up by Woodford and Mt. Snow? I'm Calling for 2-3" of mixed frozen precip here Timing is an issue. I think up by Brian and Mark they should do ok. Albany should get a nice pasting out through MPM and Pete Mitch could grab 8-10" I'd be happy with that. Send it my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Would you be able to show it? Here's hour 48(which is as far as it goes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 No QPF posts from Queen PF on this NAM runWell that would certainly give my new snowblower a workout and probably crush my inflatable polar bear and reindeer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 RGEM brings the low south of Central/ Eastern Long Island where it cuts off rather than having it tuck in near Nyc. Could help some weenies living on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Here's hour 48(which is as far as it goes). Thank you Skisheep...its appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 RGEM actually looked a bit warmer for Berks to C NH...18z run gave more snow there. But this is on a razors edge anyway that I'm not sure these outputs matter that much. We're talking outcome shifts that are smaller than the margin of error for the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wonder what Dendrite thinks of the hi res nam, smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wow at the GGEM, quite a bit colder and east on the backend, gives western SNE a nice event from it. Will post maps when I have free ones out, looking at it on WxBell right now and can't post that. Pretty toasty on the front end though, no one south of the VT/NH border sees much of anything if you take it verbatim(Which I wouldn't at this lead time, it's terrible with profiles, almost always too warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wow at the GGEM, quite a bit colder and east on the backend, gives western SNE a nice event from it. Will post maps when I have free ones out, looking at it on WxBell right now and can't post that. Pretty toasty on the front end though, no one south of the VT/NH border sees much of anything if you take it verbatim(Which I wouldn't at this lead time, it's terrible with profiles, almost always too warm).only Wxbell Euro maps can't be dessiminated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 only Wxbell Euro maps can't be dessiminated I know, but I believe it's board policy to not post maps from a paid site, although I could be wrong (I've never gotten a straight answer one way or the other on this, so have hedged on the side of caution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 only Wxbell Euro maps can't be dessiminated What's your call for up here Ginxy? I'm sticking with 5-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Here's our final call for wintry precip in CT(This only includes tomorrow, backend will be dealt with in a separate map issued likely tomorrow night if needed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 What's your call for up here Ginxy? I'm sticking with 5-10".10-14 in Stowe 16-24 ski area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Let's see PF, NAM GFS EURO Ukmet HIRes NAM GGEM RGEM give you 16+ and you are 5-10, did you steal MPMs shawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 They need a name so we can just lump them together...you have the Dacks, Greens, Whites, and the western Maine mountains. They need like a 5-6 letter moniker haha, though SR/SL does work as well. You sometimes see the extension of the Whites referred to as the Blue Mountains on some topo maps. It's not widely referenced though. More likely you'll see the Mahoosucs for near Sunday River and maybe the Bigelow Range for near Sugarloaf. Then farther north you have the Boundary Mountains along the international border. All generally part of the Longfellow Mountains. Confusing right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I have like a mist here now and 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Let's see PF, NAM GFS EURO Ukmet HIRes NAM GGEM RGEM give you 16+ and you are 5-10, did you steal MPMs shawl He is freaked out about ever over- forecasting , so he always goes somewhat conservative , so he can be pleasantly surprised. If you add 20% to his forecasts he is most accurate for his area, because he knows it BEST , seems like a chuck Knoblauch like thing that won't change lol, you just gotta take his forecast and go with upper limit or add 20% to the median. He knows his stuff very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 He is freaked out about ever over- forecasting , so he always goes somewhat conservative , so he can be pleasantly surprised. If you add 20% to his forecasts he is most accurate for his area, because he knows it BEST , seems like a chuck Knoblauch like thing that won't change lol, you just gotta take his forecast and go with upper limit or add 20% to the median. He knows his stuff very well.60 foot seas hitting Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think they will have to split Merrimack County. This is a very different storm in the n and w part of the county vs. the se. I don't recall ever seeing the county split though, at least in the zones. Unfortunately Merrimack doesn't have a split at this time. Though considering Hillsborough does, it makes some sense to split Merrimack too for aesthetic purposes on the watch/warning/advisory map (aside from the fact that the terrain in the western part of the county is much different than the east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Between 11am-3pm, the 0z NAM flips LWM back and forth from -1 to 1c @ 850.. That's interesting, lol. Borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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