ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah those BL issues not gonna happen either with euro. Yep. You aren't eroding that CAD wedge over the interior on a track like that. If it retros up dendrites fanny, then sure. But staying offshore, it's not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Tomorrow is just a cold front with a wave on it. That isn't going to have any bearing on what happens next week You don't think that downstream it can have any effect on the position of the HP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You would have hated Feb 23-28, 1969. Ha, Not the one i was referring to, But lets play the 2010 one to as well, And i was around for 69 just in case you may have forgotten............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah those BL issues not gonna happen either with euro.Well I was just taking the run verbatim. Too much east flow can torch me though. This run won't verify so it's a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Since we can't post pay sites EC data, some free stuff for those without pay sites Euro Ens 850 mean congrats Pete MPM PF Dendrite Dryslut ( on this run) The ensembles are good, the only reason I'm hesitent to use them is that you know without a doubt before looking at them that the mean will be east of the OP. In 99% of coastal storms, the mean is east of the operational if the op is a bomb. You're always going to have members that don't phase or are even non-existent on the storm, skewing the mean eastward. We could have every ensemble member with a storm being exactly like the OP, but then a handful of them have no storm and the mean is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well I was just taking the run verbatim. Too much east flow can torch me though. This run won't verify so it's a moot point. As well here while the foothills and mtns are making snow angels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The retro scenario in this threat would probably be the best way for the coastal areas to pick up snow. Swing the system out east and then retro it back toward like PWM or something...because unless the high trends better, it's curtains with that easterly flow. On a retro scenario you have CCB snows on a NNW wind. But obviously you need the track to take a wide enough turn out to the east. Yeah if that got into Maine, it could wrap enough cold in to get snow on the SNE coastal plain. But of course that would come at the expense of someone, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yep. You aren't eroding that CAD wedge over the interior on a track like that. If it retros up dendrites fanny, then sure. But staying offshore, it's not gonna happen.The CAD is pretty lousy on this run. Obviously that could change, but I don't like that clipper staying so strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The CAD is pretty lousy on this run. Obviously that could change, but I don't like that clipper staying so strong. I agree, but I think you wouldn't really go above 32. Anyways like you said....it probably won't happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 He might remember that one. You would have hated Feb 23-28, 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 don't forget benchmark tracks bad for NNE. BM to Bay of Fundy or Yarmouth is an awesome track, BM to Halifax is a cirrus track with confluence over the top nudging the track ENE, Very dependent on where it tracks from the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 He might remember that one. No school for a week, Hard to forget Rick............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 BM to Bay of Fundy or Yarmouth is an awesome track, BM to Halifax is a cirrus track with confluence over the top nudging the track ENE, Very dependent on where it tracks from the BMWell it's also very crucial to mid levels too in regards to snow up that way. I've been dry slotted by BM tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You would have hated Feb 23-28, 1969. don't forget benchmark tracks bad for NNE. You guys absolutely love that stuff, lol. You have to know what he means though. There are certain things we regard as "better" for a given location, but not saying its absolute, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 The CAD is pretty lousy on this run. Obviously that could change, but I don't like that clipper staying so strong. I don't see how it would cause BL issues...esp where you are. I'm more concerned about the mid-level CAD than anything. These depictions of BL warmth flooding out the CAD wedge at the surface on an offshore track work out about as often as a severe wx outbreak in NE...it's hard to scour that out, even on a retreating high. If the low retros inland, then I could totally see it, but the ensemble mean track I would def not forecast big BL warmth. If the primary up in Canada gets too strong as well, then it could be an issue...but in that case, we're not even really looking at a coastal anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well it's also very crucial to mid levels too in regards to snow up that way. I've been dry slotted by BM tracks. Haha oh boy here we go. What we need to do is just run composites for great snowstorms for BTV/PWM/BOS/BDL and then we can just end the debate. I bet a composite for up here would be a closer to the coast track than the Benchmark But not saying it can't happen, just what a climo mean would be. Or better yet a composite of the H7 lows. I bet that would be over SNE for up here, regardless of where the SFC low is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 You guys absolutely love that stuff, lol. You have to know what he means though. There are certain things we regard as "better" for a given location, but not saying its absolute, haha. I don't think retro-storms are bad for NE...yeah, the 2010 one sucked, but we've had a lot of good ones. It's like any other type of storm, if it's a good track, then it works. Just because its a "retro storm" doesn't automatically make it crappy because we got hosed in 2010. I understand the benchmark thing...that's more teasing because you need to look at each individual case. But in the case of a captured retro-storm, I don't think there is something climatologically horrible about them. If you swing this out east of 70W and then retro it back toward Maine, that's going to be a good storm for a lot of people. Obviously you worry about it retro-ing too far west or inland...but that is also a worry on a more conventional track...we worry they might cut up the CT River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Funny you say that about the retro storms Will...I just realized that the largest BTV snowfall on record and I think PWM are both retro. The BTV one was that bizarre 2010 orographic blocking event where they got 36" and here in the mountains got like 10". But that was a retro storm backing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Early December 1981 retro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well it's also very crucial to mid levels too in regards to snow up that way. I've been dry slotted by BM tracks. Very true, It all about the mid low centers to where they track, But more often then not unless its a large circulation its less favorable especially if there is a sharp cutoff to the NW on precip if its taking more of an ENE track from the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Funny you say that about the retro storms Will...I just realized that the largest BTV snowfall on record and I think PWM are both retro. The BTV one was that bizarre 2010 orographic blocking event where they got 36" and here in the mountains got like 10". But that was a retro storm backing in. Yeah, the BTV storm was the Jan 1-3, 2010 retro storm. At any rate, I'm not saying I'm sitting here rooting for a retro storm...they can be fickle...I'm just saying they can produce some monster snows. I will agree with Brian that I'm worried about the northern stream up around James Bay...that is the most likely feature to screw us...if that shortwave is too dominant, we're going to end up too mild in the mid-levels...and perhaps even the surface too if the coastal is not dominating until late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Haha oh boy here we go. What we need to do is just run composites for great snowstorms for BTV/PWM/BOS/BDL and then we can just end the debate. I bet a composite for up here would be a closer to the coast track than the Benchmark But not saying it can't happen, just what a climo mean would be. Or better yet a composite of the H7 lows. I bet that would be over SNE for up here, regardless of where the SFC low is. It's more fun. I agree with your assessment, but mid level low tracks really separate the men from the boys in terms of big snows around here, more than storm tracks. We certainly have a climatologically favored track, but when I forecast, my concern is 850-500 positions, not necessarily storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yeah, the BTV storm was the Jan 1-3, 2010 retro storm. At any rate, I'm not saying I'm sitting here rooting for a retro storm...they can be fickle...I'm just saying they can produce some monster snows. I will agree with Brian that I'm worried about the northern stream up around James Bay...that is the most likely feature to screw us...if that shortwave is too dominant, we're going to end up too mild in the mid-levels...and perhaps even the surface too if the coastal is not dominating until late in the game. And i agree with that as well, We don't want it to become the dominant player then we are all cooked mainly, I would like to see the piece coming up from the south assert itself more here which would favor more of a wintery precip appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That retro storm in early January (probably '08 or '09..maybe '10) was pretty cool. It came in from way out in the Maritimes and backed southwest. Pushed good snow right back to me and turned a lot of Maine to rain (or dry slotted and >32) --from east to west. I don't think retro-storms are bad for NE...yeah, the 2010 one sucked, but we've had a lot of good ones. It's like any other type of storm, if it's a good track, then it works. Just because its a "retro storm" doesn't automatically make it crappy because we got hosed in 2010. I understand the benchmark thing...that's more teasing because you need to look at each individual case. But in the case of a captured retro-storm, I don't think there is something climatologically horrible about them. If you swing this out east of 70W and then retro it back toward Maine, that's going to be a good storm for a lot of people. Obviously you worry about it retro-ing too far west or inland...but that is also a worry on a more conventional track...we worry they might cut up the CT River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Maybe this is the one that I'm thinking of. Yeah, the BTV storm was the Jan 1-3, 2010 retro storm. At any rate, I'm not saying I'm sitting here rooting for a retro storm...they can be fickle...I'm just saying they can produce some monster snows. I will agree with Brian that I'm worried about the northern stream up around James Bay...that is the most likely feature to screw us...if that shortwave is too dominant, we're going to end up too mild in the mid-levels...and perhaps even the surface too if the coastal is not dominating until late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I hear people referencing last week as a case in which people jumped the gun and gave up too early, only to see a concession east.....but I think that is more applicable to n Worcester county and GC/C/NNE. Like i said earlier, they will probably get a decent event, but I think the cp is cooked. I'm sure the EURO will fall back a bit east, but the whole appeal of this deal changed when that high escaped east, and the EURO started bringing the low bodily into NE. Different beast than what we were seeing modeled on Wednesday. Coast is skunked. And if you end up relying on a retrograding, shredded, skunk of a ccb to get a good event, you may as well try to ferret out that elusive pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, while you're at it. Like scooter said, that is usually overdone. Ask Bruce Showegler (sp). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Gfs is trying. The little engine that could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z GFS going to be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z GFS going to be ugly Warm on the front side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 GFS is still terrible...redevelops the low overhead. Keeps that primary in Canada dominant until way too late. It did dig a lot more northern stream energy down into the system though...so if that thrend kept up, it might end up going toward the Euro eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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