phil882 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I wouldn't say gorgeously wintry. 900mb temps are challenging all day. Not that I don't have hope This is from 18Z NAM for 14Z Tue. It shows up throughout the day. Hopefully low level cold wins out. wow that's actually a much bigger warm nose than I thought it would show for Albany on the 18z NAM... really skeptical since the WAA isn't all that impressive and there will be an incredible amount of dynamical cooling with the precip its depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 wow that's actually a much bigger warm nose than I thought it would show for Albany on the 18z NAM... really skeptical since the WAA isn't all that impressive and there will be an incredible amount of dynamical cooling with the precip its depicting.It's off of SUNY Albany's website. Maybe it's not accurate? What's your thoughts for precip type in the valley tomorrow? Forecast variability is insane. I've seen 1-3" up to 12-18" lol. 900 mb warmth should be taken care of by dynamic cooling? Could downsloping be aiding the low level warmth? Tonight's model runs will be the most important of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Man, tough forecast for ENY and WMA. The NAM dumps a ton of QPF, mostly frozen and then lingers the deform near ALB. The column looks really marginal with almost any ptype possible. The hills could get 20" if the NAM is right with valleys under the deform still capable of warning snows... possibly lingering right through Wed night or beyond. On the other hand, if other guidance (GFS, CMC) is right the deform could rotate west and valleys get downsloped with rain and then dryslot. Here in the deep valley in ALB I would not be shocked to get 10" of paste or a slushy half inch and then a diurnal dusting on Wed night. I don't think it will be clear what's going to happen until it's already happening. Drive up to Thatcher looks likely. I'm leaning towards a light mix changing to a brief, intense snow thump, changing to rain and then dryslot... with the deform rotating west into the W Catskills up through the S Dacks and into VT. I think the low will tuck in tight. Lingering wraparound looks suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It's off of SUNY Albany's website. Maybe it's not accurate? What's your thoughts for precip type in the valley tomorrow? Forecast variability is insane. I've seen 1-3" up to 12-18" lol. 900 mb warmth should be taken care of by dynamic cooling? Could downsloping be aiding the low level warmth? Tonight's model runs will be the most important of our lives Oh its just the BUFR sounding (same used for BUFKIT) so I imagine its accurate. I am just a bit surprised it shows a 2-3C warm nose during the time of max precip with relatively weak WAA (20-30 knots) at 925-hPa. The NAM does have a warm bias from time to time in these situations so it could be exhibiting that here. Note how the GFS for this same time period has basically no warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 18z RGEM plastered the hills just W/SW of Albany with upwards of two feet of snow...Logan11's area. rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_17.png The RGEM goes from almost no snow 10 miles SE of ALB to more than 2 feet 10 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Man, tough forecast for ENY and WMA. The NAM dumps a ton of QPF, mostly frozen and then lingers the deform near ALB. The column looks really marginal with almost any ptype possible. The hills could get 20" if the NAM is right with valleys under the deform still capable of warning snows... possibly lingering right through Wed night or beyond. On the other hand, if other guidance (GFS, CMC) is right the deform could rotate west and valleys get downsloped with rain and then dryslot. Here in the deep valley in ALB I would not be shocked to get 10" of paste or a slushy half inch and then a diurnal dusting on Wed night. I don't think it will be clear what's going to happen until it's already happening. Drive up to Thatcher looks likely. I'm leaning towards a light mix changing to a brief, intense snow thump, changing to rain and then dryslot... with the deform rotating west into the W Catskills up through the S Dacks and into VT. I think the low will tuck in tight. Lingering wraparound looks suspect to me. That's pretty much what I'm thinking too, although I'm praying for a cold / east trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I wouldn't say gorgeously wintry. 900mb temps are challenging all day. Not that I don't have hope This is from 18Z NAM for 14Z Tue. It shows up throughout the day. Hopefully low level cold wins out. That model sounding looks like sleet, which I buy considering the in situ airmass. The twisterdata graphics look more smoothed, suggesting a marginal rain vs. snow scenario. Sounding just east of ALB look like rain. Really, really marginal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The RGEM goes from almost no snow 10 miles SE of ALB to more than 2 feet 10 miles west. Damn, my gf's cousin lives in Colonie, just west of Albany...we were out there in October. They look to be right in the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some of my zones are gonna be in the ol "damned if you do and damned if you don't" zone unfortunately. There will probably be a decent stripe of real estate in or near the watch area where a half degree to a degree somewhere in the column will mean the difference between 33 and rain and decent/significant ice and/or frozen. This event is starting to feel like 12/16/07 to me in SNE from a forecast toughness/bust potential standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Damn, my gf's cousin lives in Colonie, just west of Albany...we were out there in October. They look to be right in the transition zone. As Johnny Cash sang, "I walk the Line." Should be an interesting day tomorrow here in ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Funny how these storms take a personality of their own once the media is on it...this evening I've gotten multiple people calling or texting and asking if its true we are going to get up to 2 feet of snow. Then when I say 5-10" they sound really disappointed, lol. Tough forecast, but I can tell you that about a foot is the absolute ceiling in this area. Its a thump to dry slot...those can perform but they usually all fall in a similar range of like 4-5" up to 10-12". To get more than that, you need a steady supply of moisture and a CCB...real hard to top a foot on just a pure burst of WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some of my zones are gonna be in the ol "damned if you do and damned if you don't" zone unfortunately. There will probably be a decent stripe of real estate in or near the watch area where a half degree somewhere in the column will mean 33 and rain and decent/significant ice. This event is starting to feel like 12/16/07 to me in SNE from a forecast toughness/bust potential standpoint. I like big busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That's pretty much what I'm thinking too, although I'm praying for a cold / east trend tonight. Me too. But the 18z RGEM and NAM runs might be about as good as it gets in terms of slp and mid level tracks. We might just have to roll the dice and hope for the dynamical and evaporational processes to work their magic. I expect the temp to gradually rise all night but 1"+ per hour snows will accumulate at 33.5F. Just gotta hope the column can get close to isothermal and the surface low tucks near ELI instead of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some of my zones are gonna be in the ol "damned if you do and damned if you don't" zone unfortunately. There will probably be a decent stripe of real estate in or near the watch area where a half degree somewhere in the column will mean the difference between 33 and rain and decent/significant ice and/or frozen. This event is starting to feel like 12/16/07 to me in SNE from a forecast toughness/bust potential standpoint. I think I am in that trouble zone for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 As Johnny Cash sang, "I walk the Line." Should be an interesting day tomorrow here in ENY. I wish we were out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think I am in that trouble zone for you.indeed. We'll give it the ol college try later tonight though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 indeed. We'll give it the ol college try later tonight though! Mike, you think I could pull of an inch or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Me too. But the 18z RGEM and NAM runs might be about as good as it gets in terms of slp and mid level tracks. We might just have to roll the dice and hope for the dynamical and evaporational processes to work their magic. I expect the temp to gradually rise all night but 1"+ per hour snows will accumulate at 33.5F. Just gotta hope the column can get close to isothermal and the surface low tucks near ELI instead of NYC. Mangled flakes FTW! Looks like a narrow sweet spot where the best dynamics and decent temps overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Mike, you think I could pull of an inch or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Mangled flakes FTW! Looks like a narrow sweet spot where the best dynamics and decent temps overlap. Yeah the closer we get to this storm, the more narrow that sweet spot looks, haha. Someone is going to get crunked, just depends on how far north and west that strong band gets. Its a double edge sword...if the low ticks east, you may lose those strong precip rates as the best lift shifts east too, though maybe you remain a degree or two colder in the mid-levels? I'd rather take my chances with just getting under the heavy precip in this one and hoping dynamic cooling works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 indeed. We'll give it the ol college try later tonight though! the NAM soundings that Brian showed earlier were so fraught with potential. I am just a few miles wsw from him. It would seem with such a strong antecedant cold air mass that we could manage to be at least as cold as that sounding. But I'd like to see some real precip showing up on the radar. We could easily get 8 or 10 inches of paste here while Concord proper gets 3 or 4. Just looking for enough to keep the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I like big busts....and I cannot lie. You other brothers can't deny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 ...and I cannot lie. You other brothers can't deny.Wow.. You're human Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 00z check up. Just for schist and giggles. GYX. Observed 925mb sounding -7.5C. 18z NAM valid 00z is about -8.1C 18z GFS valid at 00z. -8.8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 00z check up. Just for schist and giggles. GYX. Observed 925mb sounding -7.5C. 18z NAM valid 00z is about -8.1C 18z GFS valid at 00z. -8.8C so reality is warmer than the models. that is so close to the coast tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 PF no Faith in the Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 so reality is warmer than the models. that is so close to the coast tho. Right. It's really too early to tell anyways, models more or less are usually too quick to move it out, not necessarily underplaying the cold. I just posted it because I remember a few talking about comparing RAOBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I can do the same thing for ALB Observed Sounding 00z 9 Dec 925-hPa: -7.1C Forecast Sounding NAM (regular resolution) 00z 9 Dec ~925-hPa: -6.2C Forecast Sounding NAM 4km resolution 00z 9 Dec ~925-hPa: -6.1C Forecast Sounding GFS (regular resolution) 00z 9 Dec ~925-hpa: -5.8C In Albany at least it seems like the sounding is colder that the model analysis at 925-hPa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Right. It's really too early to tell anyways, models more or less are usually too quick to move it out, not necessarily underplaying the cold. I just posted it because I remember a few talking about comparing RAOBS. I think it would be more interesting to compare an inland location like ORH or CON because the are not subject to the variations of being so close to the coastline. I have to drive to BOS tomorrow for a flight to JFK. Booked a train also because I expect many delays and cancellations tomorrow afternoon. I would like to leave home after a morning walking in heavy snow and then drive on a plowed salted 93 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 21 here now. It will be a very fascinating day tomorrow to see how this evolves. I had a business trip planned down to NYC , but decided I might not be able to get back up into the hills tomorrow evening, plus I hate missing snowstorms. I'd love to get the deformation also, but looks to me like the real show is that intense WAA that rotates up and through. The damage is done big time from that if it's snow. The deformation would be gravy. Maybe we dry slot and get some freezing drizzle then here. I guess the general feeling around here is that there won't be much sleet involved. That's pretty much what I'm thinking too, although I'm praying for a cold / east trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.