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Dec 9-10 storm threat

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted

GYX does not have a WWA for PWM, which surprises me given the potential for CAD to hang in there tomorrow....what say ye, OceanSt and Arnold?

toller65

OceanSt and Arnold will be working graveyard again tonight starting at 10 pm. Should be interesting.
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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Here's my NAM sounding text for 18z tomorrow and 00z Wed.

 

Date: 24 hour Eta valid 18Z TUE  9 DEC 14
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   174                                                                 
SFC  993   226   0.4  -0.4  94  0.8   0.0  37   9 274.0 274.6 273.5 284.1  3.73
  2  950   585   1.7   1.2  96  0.6   1.5  69  34 279.0 279.7 277.2 291.0  4.38
  3  900  1019  -0.0  -0.3  98  0.2  -0.2  90  32 281.5 282.2 278.2 293.1  4.16
  4  850  1476  -1.7  -2.1  97  0.4  -1.9  93  23 284.4 285.1 279.3 295.4  3.87
  5  800  1956  -4.7  -5.4  95  0.7  -5.0  95  19 286.1 286.7 279.2 295.3  3.19
  6  750  2463  -5.8  -6.5  95  0.7  -6.1 116  23 290.3 290.9 281.1 299.5  3.14
  7  700  3002  -8.4  -9.4  93  1.0  -8.7 128  35 293.2 293.7 281.8 301.2  2.68
  8  650  3574  -9.8 -10.8  92  1.1 -10.1 142  44 297.9 298.4 283.7 305.8  2.57
  9  600  4191 -11.0 -12.2  91  1.2 -11.4 171  31 303.4 303.9 285.8 311.2  2.50
 10  550  4857 -14.0 -15.3  90  1.3 -14.4 179  45 307.5 307.9 286.8 314.2  2.11
 11  500  5574 -18.4 -19.6  90  1.3 -18.7 180  59 310.7 311.0 287.4 316.0  1.61
Date: 30 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 10 DEC 14
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000    98                                                                 
SFC  984   226   1.2   0.4  94  0.8   0.8  17  15 275.6 276.3 274.8 286.5  3.99
  2  950   510  -0.4  -0.7  98  0.3  -0.5  25  32 276.8 277.4 275.3 287.3  3.83
  3  900   943   0.0  -0.1  99  0.2  -0.0  49  53 281.5 282.2 278.3 293.2  4.20
  4  850  1401  -0.2  -0.3  99  0.1  -0.2  74  57 286.0 286.7 280.7 298.5  4.40
  5  800  1886  -0.5  -0.6 100  0.0  -0.5  98  56 290.6 291.4 283.0 303.9  4.59
  6  750  2401  -1.6  -1.6 100  0.0  -1.6 122  59 294.9 295.7 284.7 308.2  4.54
  7  700  2951  -2.3  -2.3 100  0.0  -2.3 150  54 299.9 300.8 286.6 313.8  4.61
  8  650  3537  -5.6  -5.7  99  0.1  -5.7 175  46 302.6 303.3 286.9 314.4  3.84
  9  600  4159  -9.6 -12.2  81  2.6 -10.5 180  43 305.0 305.5 286.4 312.9  2.49
 10  550  4827 -13.9 -18.7  67  4.8 -15.2 174  41 307.6 307.9 286.3 312.8  1.59
 11  500  5541 -19.8 -27.4  51  7.6 -21.3 167  39 308.9 309.0 285.9 311.6  0.81
H95 is the only warm layer at 24hr (+1.7C) with an ENE wind. 6hrs later it is 0C at that layer with a NNE wind. In fact the wind backs to ENE all the way up to H85. I can't help but think the strong UVVs and underestimated CAD help this become an isothermal pasting.

 

you are generally conservative (read realistic). do you feel there is sufficient support from other models?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

18z GFS seemed to tick east a bit...really hammers S/C VT up through C.NH and into the Maine foothills and Longfella (or is that a male porn star?) Mountains. 

 

I usually think the wxbell snow maps are atrocious, but this one seems decent for what the 18z GFS is spitting out.  That WCB really maxes out in Central New England with regards to best lift in a marginally cold column.  It seems to weaken it prior to reaching the Canadian border from Jay Peak to Pittsburgh to Jackman.

 

Also, this may be a toaster bath for the met students at Lyndon State with deep layer easterly flow.  You get downslope drying and warming.  The soundings for 1V4 have a lot more pockets of above freezing temps in the 950-850mb level. 

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

18z GFS seemed to tick east a bit...really hammers S/C VT up through C.NH and into the Maine foothills and Longfella (or is that a male porn star?) Mountains. 

 

I usually think the wxbell snow maps are atrocious, but this one seems decent for what the 18z GFS is spitting out.  That WCB really maxes out in Central New England with regards to best lift in a marginally cold column.  It seems to weaken it prior to reaching the Canadian border from Jay Peak to Pittsburgh to Jackman.

 

Also, this may be a toaster bath for the met students at Lyndon State with deep layer easterly flow.  You get downslope drying and warming.  The soundings for 1V4 have a lot more pockets of above freezing temps in the 950-850mb level. 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_6hr_snow_acc_neng_15.png

Don't get me wrong, good storm, but how did we go from this 3 day, 3' bonanza, to a stripe of 6-12". :lol:

Maybe I missed something because I admittedly having been paying close attention since I'm not going to snow..

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Don't get me wrong, good storm, but how did we go from this 3 day, 3' bonanza, to a stripe of 6-12". :lol:

Maybe I missed something because I admittedly having been paying close attention since I'm not going to snow..

 

It depends on expectations haha, but I think those earlier massive runs were off the table a few days ago when this turned into essentially a SWFE (thump to mix/dryslot, not actual SW flow).  Those runs 48 hours ago were showing a much better moisture feed into New England that sustained itself.  For most, even the mountains of Maine, the bulk of this accumulation will happen in 6-12 hours.  It may be 2-3" per hour at Sugarloaf, but even there they'll flip over with H85 warm wrapping westward.  They'll still get 12-24" though, so its a big storm, but honestly doesn't seem like anything we haven't seen in December before in terms of snow totals or impacts.

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Arnold214

Arnold214

Posted
Posted

We'll all just enjoy our brown Christmas in SNE that you wished upon us. Maybe as a gift, you can get me a saddle for my camel when the children go for rises on it

my xmas may very well be brown too. Or two inches of ice covered crust. There's nothing better than a nice advisory snow event on xmas eve with little to no wind. I am hoping that all of us can cash in on that.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Obviously, in light of your democratic views, you attended an open admissions university, and not some elitist selective New England liberal arts college?

 

Haha you sure know how to interact with other humans.  That must be the difference between elitist selective schools and the rest of the population. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Seems like there's some decent agreement of a couple snow chances in the days leading up to Xmas

 

The 18z GFS was conjuring up ways to ruin Christmas with a stormy week in awful airmasses, lol.

 

Regardless, storminess continues, just pray we get some good air masses.  I could see a lot of folks losing it if we get a series of lows passing south of SNE causing rainers right up to the holidays.  The pattern is stormy though and active.  That's a starting point.

 

This on the 21st....

 

 

 

And then a Christmas Eve one.

 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

This is a setup where the interior stays like 33-35 or so all afternoon tomorriw. this is like the 3rd storm this fall where forecast highs have been in the 40's only to be taken down the night before

 

Awesome.  Colder rain.

 

Ran some skew-T's for my hood of the 18z NAM.  Looks like it gets 850 gets to 0 right at 15z and warms to about +3 or so before coming back down to freezing near ground level.  Maybe some zr from that? 

 

20.0/15

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Noticed on the NAM's FRH grid that the column's colder at PHL/LGA every run across the past three cycles.  PHL is damn close to an isothermic blue bomb and probably cat paws and shoots mix in at that.  LGA not far behind.

 

BOS cooled significantly on the 12z, but popped back a tad on this 18z run.  Could be one of those inverted latitude deals where it western NJ goes over to 33F parachute glops while it 47F drilling an E or ENE wind at BOS.  

 

Get a load of ALB's 18z numbers... Close to 2.00" liq equiv in gorgeously winter sounding.... 

 

With the high retreating like that... you can see the models just reasoning things out that there really isn't much WAA, because the cold air in place sort of picks up and leaves the party on it's own because the return flow around that high.  But, lower tropospheric headaches in dealing with this huge hygroscopic sink will be interesting, particularly if the GFS's 18z position is correct, which is adjust now SE of PVD for an extended period. 

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

Noticed on the NAM's FRH grid that the column's colder at PHL/LGA every run across the past three cycles. PHL is damn close to an isothermic blue bomb and probably cat paws and shoots mix in at that. LGA not far behind.

BOS cooled significantly on the 12z, but popped back a tad on this 18z run. Could be one of those inverted latitude deals where it western NJ goes over to 33F parachute glops while it 47F drilling an E or ENE wind at BOS.

Get a load of ALB's 18z numbers... Close to 2.00" liq equiv in gorgeously winter sounding....

With the high retreating like that... you can see the models just reasoning things out that there really isn't much WAA, because the cold air in place sort of picks up and leaves the party on it's own because the return flow around that high. But, lower tropospheric headaches in dealing with this huge hygroscopic sink will be interesting, particularly if the GFS's 18z position is correct, which is adjust now SE of PVD for an extended period.

I wouldn't say gorgeously wintry. 900mb temps are challenging all day. Not that I don't have hope :) This is from 18Z NAM for 14Z Tue. It shows up throughout the day. Hopefully low level cold wins out.

post-1592-0-40059200-1418083666_thumb.jp

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