SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 BTV WRF keeps Ray below freezing through late tomorrow morning. Is that an improvement of what it has shown previously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Is that an improvement of what it has shown previously? It's been pretty stubborn to show any warming prior to tomorrow morning. Warming of consequence anyways. Really all it means is the morning commute may be slippery N and W. So far, the warming is struggling just to get past my house and I live just SE of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's been pretty stubborn to show any warming prior to tomorrow morning. Warming of consequence anyways. Really all it means is the morning commute may be slippery N and W. So far, the warming is struggling just to get past my house and I live just SE of BOS. Was the GFS colder like the Euro and Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 These maps are small but still looks like its on a beam for eastern LI here and then retros back a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Was the GFS colder like the Euro and Nam? I didn't see a difference from 6z. If anything, it was a little bit slower, which would delay warming, which also delayed onset of precip by maybe an hour or so...but to me, no noticeable difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Near-term trends really lock in the cold NW of I-95. FWIW, HRRR has low to mid-20s at midnight from the ORH hills to the Litchfield hills. Even has PHL near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Rick full suite of UK with precip here Will be updated soon http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 No PF qpf posts after the GFS? That's not all snow either, haha. The amount that falls prior to mixing is much less. Storm total moisture isn't really a big deal, its what's white and not something else that is. That's what has the largest sensible impact. But again, it was just an observation on the 12z NAM, lol...that's all. You are reading too much into it. The GFS did back off on the moisture as well with that initial band, but the GGEM stayed robust. We'll see how much lift the EURO has in that initial WAA push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think we're coming to a pretty good consensus with an initial low track toward central or eastern L.I. I didn't see a difference from 6z. If anything, it was a little bit slower, which would delay warming, which also delayed onset of precip by maybe an hour or so...but to me, no noticeable difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 BTV WRF keeps Ray below freezing through late tomorrow morning. And if anything, these are just the situations that model should be used in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think we're coming to a pretty good consensus with an initial low track toward central or eastern L.I. I agree..and then maybe wobble to extreme se MA or the Cape. It looks like we get quite the soaking here assisted by some good low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 And if anything, these are just the situations that model should be used in. Yep, agree. I like that model for these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That's not all snow either, haha. The amount that falls prior to mixing is much less. Storm total moisture isn't really a big deal, its what's white and not something else that is. That's what has the largest sensible impact. But again, it was just an observation on the 12z NAM, lol...that's all. You are reading too much into it. The GFS did back off on the moisture as well with that initial band, but the GGEM stayed robust. We'll see how much lift the EURO has in that initial WAA push. yeah that 18-24 sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ALY updated map....this has been all over the place last two days, for obvious reasons. Also accumulations only through Wed 7AM...so now I sit good at 4-6, up the hill in Norfolk will probably be twice that Wow they've got a lot of 10-14" areas shaded there... its really going to have to rip for that widespread 10"+ type stuff, especially the southern Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 yeah that 18-24 sucks Huh? Was there a complaint? Its an observation on a deterministic model run. Its not good or bad. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Prob heading north to ski wed eve (thurs) . Whats a good spot w less icing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Prob heading ucheck the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Gusts to Hurricane Force on the Cape tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yea Eddie this is pretty sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 wrf btv is interesting. has almost like a low level enhancement over my head from portsmouth to interior ne ma and keeps me pretty cold... Might I actually see front end thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Judging by the banding sig I'd love to be in the Hunchie Dendrite Eek triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Judging by the banding sig I'd love to be in the Hunchie Dendrite Eek triangle Where is Eek at? How does that triangle lay out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 wrf btv is interesting. has almost like a low level enhancement over my head from portsmouth to interior ne ma and keeps me pretty cold... Might I actually see front end thump? if things break right I could see a couple inches up here before it changes to rain .. 12z euro shall be interesting, lets see if it can improve compared to the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If only we had blocking to keep this cold today locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow they've got a lot of 10-14" areas shaded there... its really going to have to rip for that widespread 10"+ type stuff, especially the southern Adirondacks. Yeah, a bit over done, like Ryan said for lower Berks and Litchfield, but this map looks to me like upslope/downslope accumulations. The dacks get smoked while HV gets wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 if things break right I could see a couple inches up here before it changes to rain .. 12z euro shall be interesting, lets see if it can improve compared to the 0z run Snow develops in the next few hours on the hires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Were daytime highs supposed to be in the teens today? Wow! It is cold outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'd put BOS on north on hellacious commute alert if these weenie bands get going over eastern mass in time for the evening commute. Doesn't look like much, but enough to slow things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Judging by the banding sig I'd love to be in the Hunchie Dendrite Eek triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro looks to be a little faster and warmer/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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