dryslot Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 congrats, some will win some will lose some are made to sing the blues lol, I'm on the chalk here on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Well when trying to figure out snow amounts there are two things that are important...precip (caused by lift) and temperatures. So it's important to figure out what falls and when to determine snow and mix/rain amounts. If the NAM shunts the better forcing eastward and occluded to cut off the inflow, then there's a difference between 4-6" of snow then sleet/rain, and 10-12" snow then sleet and rain. What am I missing? This isn't debbie or anything, it's merely an observation between two model runs that apparently annoys some haha. QPF is always underestimated on the nw periphery because it is dictated more by mid level proccesses....that is what you have missed, and continue to miss. After seeing that the storm is the only thing that you did not miss the day before tday, I would have thought that you would have learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Haha drinking early Ginxy? Verbatim that run was .4" as snow at MVL. Good net gain. apology accepted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm singing heavy heavy blues on that map... Singing a soulful song as I look fondly 7 miles to my northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 QPF is always underestimated on the nw periphery because it is dictated more by mid level proccesses....that is what you have missed, and continue to miss. After seeing that the storm is the only thing that you did not miss the day before tday, I would have thought that you would have learned. Haha you do realize the model QPF in that storm was correct right? We just got big ratios (0.5" QPF for 11"), which also happens on the NW side. Dendrite got 3 times the QPF we did which was what was progged. You are confusing QPF with snow amounts.Do you know for sure the lift and moisture is *always* under-estimated on the NW side? I think it's more that we often miss the snow growth potential in those scenarios, not the actual moisture that falls. Like that event back in January last year when Scooter got 18" of dandruff. That NW side wasn't necessarily under modeled QPF wise, it's just the big ratios help. I think this system is being under done in upstate NY, that's the real NW deform zone in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 congrats, some will win some will lose some are made to sing the blues Broken drive cable on the snowblower. Hope the jury-rig I'll make tomorrow morning works, otherwise it's a lot of snowscoop time with 10-15" paste, were that map to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 apology accepted Why would you use an 84 hour total? Snow doesn't fall in mid-levels above freezing. Sounding shows mix by 9z Wed. Get the 45 hour total and check back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Broken drive cable on the snowblower. Hope the jury-rig I'll make tomorrow morning works, otherwise it's a lot of snowscoop time with 10-15" paste, were that map to verify. You look to be in a good spot up your way, I hope for your sake it holds up...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I wonder where orientation of cf will be tonight. I.e how close light frozen gets to city/inside 128 Looks like it camps out inside 128 (in western burbs) then maybe thru burlington/n reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Haha you do realize the model QPF in that storm was correct right? We just got big ratios (0.5" QPF for 11"), which also happens on the NW side. Dendrite got 3 times the QPF we did which was what was progged. You are confusing QPF with snow amounts. Do you know for sure the lift and moisture is *always* under-estimated on the NW side? I think it's more that we often miss the snow growth potential in those scenarios, not the actual moisture that falls. Like that event back in January last year when Scooter got 18" of dandruff. That NW side wasn't necessarily under modeled QPF wise, it's just the big ratios help. I think this system is being under done in upstate NY, that's the real NW deform zone in this storm. Yes, true. I guess I just took a cursory glance while working and saw QPF quibbling from a snow recipient, while most of us see mainly rain. Guilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The new NAM is definitely a few ticks colder here. It never gets >0C 850 as far west as me now. congrats, some will win some will lose some are made to sing the blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yes, true. I guess I just ttok a cursory glance while working and saw QPF quibbling from a snow recipient, while most of us see mainly rain. Guilty. It is also the NAM....it was just an observation, didn't want to start anything. For me and a forecast stand point, what happens in those 6-9 hours prior to the change-over is critical in determining final snow amounts. Its going to snow, I think worst case scenario is 3-4" before sleet/zr...so I'm not down on this at all. It'll be a net gain. Its just impact-wise there's a big difference between 4" and 12", which will essentially all be determined by how hard it rips tomorrow evening. Unfortunately I'm usually in the spot that some in SNE are in during certain storms...crucial to how much moisture falls prior to changeover time (say 6z)...where as NNY and Watertown/ART is where I usually am when eastern SNE is mixing. They keep that deeper cold and should have much better ratios, I think snow amounts will be under-forecasted out that way. The NAM sort of cut off the moisture feed by the time that band lifted up this far north, which was a big change from earlier runs, that's all I was noting. Not just whining that it cut my QPF...though I see how it comes off that way. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It is also the NAM....it was just an observation, didn't want to start anything. For me and a forecast stand point, what happens in those 6-9 hours prior to the change-over is critical in determining final snow amounts. Its going to snow, I think worst case scenario is 3-4" before sleet/zr...so I'm not down on this at all. It'll be a net gain. Its just impact-wise there's a big difference between 4" and 12", which will essentially all be determined by how hard it rips tomorrow evening. The NAM sort of cut off the moisture feed by the time that band lifted up this far north, which was a big change from earlier runs, that's all I was noting. Not just whining that it cut my QPF...though I see how it comes off that way. My apologies. Nah, its good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Broken drive cable on the snowblower. Hope the jury-rig I'll make tomorrow morning works, otherwise it's a lot of snowscoop time with 10-15" paste, were that map to verify.ugh,watch your heart rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 51 hrs NAM.. Im at -2C 850 and Scott is at +2 or +3 up there in Stowe. You dont see that often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NAM definitely somewhat less juiced this run, but its the NAM ...and the next run could be wet as hell again. It is also the NAM....it was just an observation, didn't want to start anything. For me and a forecast stand point, what happens in those 6-9 hours prior to the change-over is critical in determining final snow amounts. Its going to snow, I think worst case scenario is 3-4" before sleet/zr...so I'm not down on this at all. It'll be a net gain. Its just impact-wise there's a big difference between 4" and 12", which will essentially all be determined by how hard it rips tomorrow evening. Unfortunately I'm usually in the spot that some in SNE are in during certain storms...crucial to how much moisture falls prior to changeover time (say 6z)...where as NNY and Watertown/ART is where I usually am when eastern SNE is mixing. They keep that deeper cold and should have much better ratios, I think snow amounts will be under-forecasted out that way. The NAM sort of cut off the moisture feed by the time that band lifted up this far north, which was a big change from earlier runs, that's all I was noting. Not just whining that it cut my QPF...though I see how it comes off that way. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 51 hrs NAM.. Im at -2C 850 and Scott is at +2 or +3 up there in Stowe. You dont see that often Haha yeah theNAM p-type maps have it snowing in CT while it's raining steadily all over NNE later on in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ugh,watch your heart rate Got that right! Scoop a little, rest a little. When we got the 24" dump atop 27" snowpack in Feb. 2009 (we were then without powered snow removal capacity), it took my son and I 6 hours to clear the driveway, and he's back in Japan so unlikely to be of assistance. (He also never caught on to the necessity, when using the scoop, of piling snow so as to leave room to put the next snowfall.) Haha yeah theNAM p-type maps have it snowing in CT while it's raining steadily all over NNE later on in the storm. Are they channeling the 2nd round of late Feb 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Playing a nice game with the CF right now. My temp is bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS sends an area of lift through western CT and into wrn MA later Wed. It's almost a little pocket of instability or conv along with a s/w moving through. That's probably the hope for anything, but looks like a high el thing as temps are very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Playing a nice game with the CF right now. My temp is bouncing around. It's too bad temperatures continue to warm through this evening and we get a cheap midnight high because the current chill is impressive. Only 21F here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ALY updated map....this has been all over the place last two days, for obvious reasons. Also accumulations only through Wed 7AM...so now I sit good at 4-6, up the hill in Norfolk will probably be twice that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Did anything have the accumulating snow on the Jersey shore that's occurring now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Someone feel free to start an obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Did anything have the accumulating snow on the Jersey shore that's occurring now? Man the national guard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Did the GFS support the colder trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ALY updated map....this has been all over the place last two days, for obvious reasons. Also accumulations only through Wed 7AM...so now I sit good at 4-6, up the hill in Norfolk will probably be twice that I think that is way overdone here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 No PF qpf posts after the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Someone feel free to start an obs thread. Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 BTV WRF keeps Ray below freezing through late tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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