Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I do the same Steve, I look at everything from overnight and the ensembles as well before making a comment based off of what some say on here, Reading this morning it sounded like it was going to rain all the way to logan11............lol Interior Maine wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Interior Maine wow The potential that exists for this to be an epic start of the season just amazes me, Some areas may end up with half there seasonal totals in early Dec, Ski areas are licking there chops for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Its frustrating reading here sometimes and its always always why I take the time each morning to look at everything before I even read here. even the Euro Op run crushes some people here who appear to be trembling with fear. Montreal rain? yea Ok To be honest there's only one here that mentioned rain to Montreal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 there is going to be, I think this hellacious CF bisecting NE somewhere, west of there is going to get pummeled and then heights will crash. Big potential for a stall it appears. Where it all sets up is the detail but with that 8H inflow tremendous lift and dynamical snows . another power stealing type snowstorm seems to be in the cards for the same areas that just got raked, maybe farther inland but this looks like a doozy. the 1992 type elevation parrallels are not too far of IMHO There is almost certainly going to be a CF...but it won't matter that much if the mid-levels don't stay cold enough. That's obviously where the details are going to matter. I don't think this is an icing setup anymore with the delayed timing...so it's either rain or snow...maybe a very thin transition zone. As long as you either keep the the southern stream seperate enough to allow for turning in the mid-levels more out of the east as the storm gains latitude....or have a full-on phase with the storm to our east (like yesterday's 12z Ukie), then we can have a snowier solution. What you don't want is the northern stream getting involved to the point of causing SE flow in the mid-levels to warm everyone up. We want it turned more easterly to feed in from the dry polar source region of the retreating high. These are details that cannot be predicted yet, so who knows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 To be honest there's only one here that mentioned rain to Montreal... LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The potential that exists for this to be an epic start of the season just amazes me, Some areas may end up with half there seasonal totals in early Dec, Ski areas are licking there chops for sure If I get 6" I'll have the same seasonal total I had last year on January 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Its frustrating reading here sometimes and its always always why I take the time each morning to look at everything before I even read here. even the Euro Op run crushes some people here who appear to be trembling with fear. Montreal rain? yea Ok If you are referring to me..Euro is almost all rain here..if you discount the backside foolishness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And then there is always the GFS, lol. Probably best to at least let the next system clear out before looking at fine details for the one after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If I get 6" I'll have the same seasonal total I had last year on January 20th. A full 5-6 weeks earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And then there is always the GFS, lol. Probably best to at least let the next system clear out before looking at fine details for the one after. This is the 9-10th thread so no need to talk tomorrows here, But i don't think there are any finer details being worked out only the possibilities that may exists and the type of scenarios needed to be more favorable for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 But but....BOX Says: THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND THEREFORE WILLLEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION...WHICH TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WINTERWEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If you are referring to me..Euro is almost all rain here..if you discount the backside foolishness Well you on the Montreal rain, others up in the elevated western areas too. i sometimes think i am looking at old runs after reading here and have to go back and relook, but this weekend we get a better idea anyways just using ENS until tomorrow night then delve into details . But what you call backside foolishness is the result of a stacked vertical stall and that is not uncommon in that type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 But but....BOX Says: THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION...WHICH TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. They didn't see the 00z mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 They didn't see the 00z mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Since we can't post pay sites EC data, some free stuff for those without pay sites Euro Ens 850 mean congrats Pete MPM PF Dendrite Dryslut ( on this run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Para was nothing special with the last coastal. It took a long time to catch on. This Euro run is just toastier across the board than 12z was. Normally a low tracking southeast of LI to Boston would have more of front end thump than indicated here. It waits so long now that the pre-existing airmass has become more stale.. I wonder what para would do? The old gfs is thankfully in its last days of operation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 They didn't see the 00z mean. Darn shame the high scoots east. It will certainly help ski areas get an awesome boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 the 00 z ensemble mean does look closer to Nantucket at first but then the spread is further west on the next frame as some of the members are picking up more of the retrograding look. regardless things will likely change as we get better sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is the 9-10th thread so no need to talk tomorrows here, But i don't think there are any finer details being worked out only the possibilities that may exists and the type of scenarios needed to be more favorable for manyI was just saying that there is a major system before this one. That makes changes to this one's prog more likely I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Tomorrow is just a cold front with a wave on it. That isn't going to have any bearing on what happens next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Para was nothing special with the last coastal. It took a long time to catch on. This Euro run is just toastier across the board than 12z was. Normally a low tracking southeast of LI to Boston would have more of front end thump than indicated here. It waits so long now that the pre-existing airmass has become more stale.. My recollection is it locked in within 3-4 days and made slow adjustments to the mean guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 To be honest there's only one here that mentioned rain to Montreal... Ya, and he said "It's a Lock." My goodness, it's 100 plus hours out...how could anything be a lock at this vantage point. That 0z run of the Euro looks to crazy in my opinion. But I suppose you also can't rule it out either. But that's just a crazy run period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 The retro scenario in this threat would probably be the best way for the coastal areas to pick up snow. Swing the system out east and then retro it back toward like PWM or something...because unless the high trends better, it's curtains with that easterly flow. On a retro scenario you have CCB snows on a NNW wind. But obviously you need the track to take a wide enough turn out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ya, and he said "It's a Lock." My goodness, it's 100 plus hours out...how could anything be a lock at this vantage point. That 0z run of the Euro looks to crazy in my opinion. But I suppose you also can't rule it out either. But that's just a crazy run period. As I think Ginxy said earlier, DIT only said that cause he may not get in on this one whereas areas to his north could get significant snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Would rather not have a retro type deal here, Some bad memories exist in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 To be honest there's only one here that mentioned rain to Montreal...lol seriously. I made a bit of a hit and run post, but I didn't mean to imply a cutting rainer here. I don't like the look of it for mostly snow imby on those euro runs, but I would expect some decent accums from that solution. The euro went from snowing in the teens here during the afternoon to BL issues 24+ hrs later. I'm not eeyoreing the system either...it's still d4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Would rather not have a retro type deal here, Some bad memories exist in that scenario You would have hated Feb 23-28, 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You would have hated Feb 23-28, 1969. don't forget benchmark tracks bad for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 lol seriously. I made a bit of a hit and run post, but I didn't mean to imply a cutting rainer here. I don't like the look of it for mostly snow imby on those euro runs, but I would expect some decent accums from that solution. The euro went from snowing in the teens here during the afternoon to BL issues 24+ hrs later. I'm not eeyoreing the system either...it's still d4. Yeah those BL issues not gonna happen either with euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You would have hated Feb 23-28, 1969.I know what he means though. More risk than reward it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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