CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I mean up here Steve. LI will be closer to the storm at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Mood flakes in the air here @ KBED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That run is like 10-12" of paste here. NAM just went from 1.25" QPF through 9z Wed on the 6z run to 0.5" on the 12z run here. 9z appears to be about as late as we can snow, so sensible impacts that's a big difference in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I would like to be in NW NJ Poconos for that NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Was that con or lci Brian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I feel like this is a storm where Dave and the rt 2 corridor sneak in a 4hr S+ event as the intense lift slows the warming aloft, only to finally succumb later on in the day. Has that look. Might even include Will's area? Of course 10 miles means everything, but someone could pull a sneaky warning event there near the NH border and higher el. Maybe even nrn Middlsex but perhaps a bit less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Seas are already overwashing down in the MA with a huge area of 20 ft seas in the Atlantic. Local waters are 10 ft. Might be an understated threat for our coastal peeps. If there is one thing you never want to underestimate it is a very long and persistent Fetch over open seas. Mature seas at 30 Knots over 1000 mile fetch over 36 plus hours is what for height? 20-25? Maybe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 And then of course there is north of the border. Trip to lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I would like to be in NW NJ Poconos for that NAM run The poster Dark Star in highland lakes I think is 1450' or so in NW corner of Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 And then of course there is north of the border. Trip to lake? I really want to, but would then wife has to deal with the little one by herself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NAM just went from 1.25" QPF through 9z Wed on the 6z run to 0.5" on the 12z run here. 9z appears to be about as late as we can snow, so sensible impacts that's a big difference in snowfall. Man, you never learn about hugging QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That run is like 10-12" of paste here. At least your weaker trees got thinned out last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You're the Maine version of MPM its starting to look like........lol, I think we will see several inches, 12z Nam looks to have ticked east some but its colder as well, Side note we had the coldest night here so far as we got down 3.0°F last night Lol. Reverse psychology. Prepare for the worst and be pleasantly surprised when it snows. Keep the east-ward movement and I won't need my meds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The poster Dark Star in highland lakes I think is 1450' or so in NW corner of Jerseytotal weenie spot for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Lol. Reverse psychology. Prepare for the worst and be pleasantly surprised when it snows. Keep the east-ward movement and I won't need my meds lol, We want to see the mid levels continue to cool and then we won't worry about not having enough snow, So far overnight and this am, It looks to be happening like had mentioned a day or two ago, The models struggle with realizing the colder air mass until we start to get in closer and we are seeing that happening now and hope it continues, Jackman is getting smoked, They will be grooming after the 15th that is almost a given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 lol, Jackman is getting smoked, They will be grooming after the 15th that is almost a given new sled supposed to be ready this wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Was that con or lci Brian?mby lat/long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Bring him and continue indoctrination. If we somehow get 2 12 inches by dec 10 that would be unreal l I really want to, but would then wife has to deal with the little one by herself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Would be just as good here I'd think [quote name="dendrite" post="3176667" timestamp="1418050318 mby lat/long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 new sled supposed to be ready this wknd. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Man, you never learn about hugging QPF.lol and it's actually .9 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Most important model runs of my life coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm game for another grid disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Man, you never learn about hugging QPF.Well when trying to figure out snow amounts there are two things that are important...precip (caused by lift) and temperatures. So it's important to figure out what falls and when to determine snow and mix/rain amounts. If the NAM shunts the better forcing eastward and occluded to cut off the inflow, then there's a difference between 4-6" of snow then sleet/rain, and 10-12" snow then sleet and rain.What am I missing? This isn't debbie or anything, it's merely an observation between two model runs that apparently annoys some haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm game for another grid disaster.congrats, some will win some will lose some are made to sing the blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 still 20 degrees here off of a low of 15. impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 congrats, some will win some will lose some are made to sing the blues I'm singing heavy heavy blues on that map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 All scientific and model guidance aside, my gut thinks this system is going to suprise a lot of folks. Everything I look at and all the met's analogy tells me not much is going to happen for SNE, but nothing wrong with hope. Besides, it's not even the middle of December yet, and it seems we've had something to track continuously for over a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 lol and it's actually .9 all snowHaha drinking early Ginxy?Verbatim that run was .4" as snow at MVL. Good net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 All scientific and model guidance aside, my gut thinks this system is going to suprise a lot of folks. Everything I look at and all the met's analogy tells me not much is going to happen for SNE, but nothing wrong with hope. Besides, it's not even the middle of December yet, and it seems we've had something to track continuously for over a month. Yes! Let us toss aside the science and go with wishes! Finally, change we can believe in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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