moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Prob because those maps aren't operational. Neither is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm going with 4" up here, perhaps 3" on the ground when all is said and done. REALLY bouncy. Flight attendance forced to sit--have to use the can, ftl. I'm going with 4" up here, perhaps 3" on the ground when all is said and done. REALLY bouncy. Flight attendance forced to sit--have to use the can, ftl. So bouncy you posted it twice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Probably a good thing MPM is away. Great event in his hood. Nice 60 knot gusts in LIS with 3 foot surge prediction. Good thing astro is not exceptional. Euro and Euro Ens certainly do show ULL snow,not backlash but certainly have snow around from Wed on in various intensity. If 5h deepens south of us and slings vorticity out to the east and then back W, we end up on the SW flank of a good trowal and it could be legit backlash. But if the trowal ends up too far west in upstate NY or something then it is more instability driven snows with some PVA assist and low level convergence. Something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The Euro really thumps N of the Pike, would not be surprised if that doesn't turn out isothermal snow bomb with 2-3 per rates for Hunchie for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The maps are identifie das experiemental. I don't think they mesh with their expectations. But, go low on this one. As least I'll get my qpf. I already put out a early call that was on the higher side, thinking that the CAD would be a little stronger and the heavier rates would slow down the mid-level warming for a bit but it may end up being that low level cold air holds longer and we have more of an icing situation for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I wonder how legit the solution is for next weekend. All the models sort of push the ULL SE and redevelop precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Through 27, the NAM looks slower/colder (I think). Battery running low, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12z NAM looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 12z NAM looks colder. Looks like a pasting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like a pasting there.Colder and faster. Let's get a couple more runs with that trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Nice to see the Euro tick colder but yeah pingers possible. A few inches of heavy, wet snow and pingers isn't a bad thing for base-building though. I'll take anything this early in the season! Sleet is actually a very fun surface to ski on...smooth like ball bearings. But it's a biatch to ski in without a face mask haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Seas are already overwashing down in the MA with a huge area of 20 ft seas in the Atlantic. Local waters are 10 ft. Might be an understated threat for our coastal peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Seas are already overwashing down in the MA with a huge area of 20 ft seas in the Atlantic. Local waters are 10 ft. Might be an understated threat for our coastal peeps. It looks like timing of strongest winds is a bit off tomorrow with high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If this continues to trend colder I will need to get a generator. It would be a complete paste job if it comes in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Colder and faster. Let's get a couple more runs with that trend today. I actually thought it was slower, but definitely colder. Still need some move movement , but it does give a little more love before the mid-levels warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 6+ holds the pack Colder and faster. Let's get a couple more runs with that trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Sleet is actually a very fun surface to ski on...smooth like ball bearings. But it's a biatch to ski in without a face mask haha. Like a bad case of pins and needles. I was pretty surprised to see the Watch hoisted down here in Eastern Hampshire County, but doubt a warning is issued. Probably a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If this continues to trend colder I will need to get a generator. It would be a complete paste job if it comes in colder. Thanksgiving revisited. At least we won't be needing to roast a turkey in this instance if it were to play out that way. 12.3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro last night name now Gfs cinch If this continues to trend colder I will need to get a generator. It would be a complete paste job if it comes in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Trending towards a more typical curve to the east rather than the straight line into WNE and maybe a stall off of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like a pasting there.Oh boy Date: 36 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 10 DEC 14 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 109 SFC 986 226 0.5 0.2 98 0.3 0.4 17 17 274.8 275.5 274.3 285.5 3.94 2 950 521 -0.3 -0.6 98 0.2 -0.4 27 38 276.8 277.5 275.3 287.4 3.85 3 900 954 -0.1 -0.3 99 0.2 -0.2 49 52 281.4 282.1 278.2 293.0 4.16 4 850 1412 -0.2 -0.4 98 0.2 -0.3 67 50 285.9 286.7 280.6 298.3 4.35 5 800 1896 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.5 87 55 289.6 290.3 282.1 301.9 4.28 6 750 2409 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.7 109 59 293.7 294.5 283.8 306.0 4.18 7 700 2955 -3.6 -3.7 100 0.1 -3.7 134 62 298.5 299.2 285.7 311.0 4.16 8 650 3540 -5.3 -5.3 100 0.0 -5.3 158 57 303.0 303.8 287.1 315.2 3.97 9 600 4164 -9.4 -9.6 99 0.1 -9.5 175 50 305.2 305.8 287.0 314.8 3.08 10 550 4832 -13.2 -15.9 80 2.7 -14.0 184 46 308.4 308.8 287.1 314.9 2.01 11 500 5551 -18.0 -19.7 86 1.7 -18.5 177 40 311.1 311.4 287.5 316.3 1.60 12 450 6331 -23.2 -26.8 72 3.6 -23.9 171 42 314.1 314.3 287.9 317.3 0.95 13 400 7181 -29.7 -37.8 45 8.1 -30.7 165 48 316.4 316.5 288.0 317.7 0.37 14 350 8118 -37.1 -52.2 19 15.0 -38.0 164 55 318.7 318.7 288.4 319.0 0.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That NAM run is a QPF toaster bath up here haha for the initial WAA band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Thanksgiving revisited. At least we won't be needing to roast a turkey in this instance if it were to play out that way. 12.3/1 Thankfully we were able to stay with family. This time around I would just go out and get a genny and stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 What's the forecast rainfall prediction for PWM/LEW area? Wondering if my 3" glaciated pack will hold on or are we going all brown. You're the Maine version of MPM its starting to look like........lol, I think we will see several inches, 12z Nam looks to have ticked east some but its colder as well, Side note we had the coldest night here so far as we got down 3.0°F last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It looks like timing of strongest winds is a bit off tomorrow with high tide.Depends on where you are LIS seems to take the brunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 If this continues to trend colder I will need to get a generator. It would be a complete paste job if it comes in colder. I hope not, I didn't enjoy Thanksgiving. I'm not convinced we see anything more than some mood snow that quickly turns to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That run is like 10-12" of paste here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Surface at 33 and higher level elsewhere all below freezing at7pm tomorrow? 10+ of paste? Oh boy Date: 36 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 10 DEC 14 Station: 43.43,-71.62 Latitude: 43.43 Longitude: -71.62 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 109 SFC 986 226 0.5 0.2 98 0.3 0.4 17 17 274.8 275.5 274.3 285.5 3.94 2 950 521 -0.3 -0.6 98 0.2 -0.4 27 38 276.8 277.5 275.3 287.4 3.85 3 900 954 -0.1 -0.3 99 0.2 -0.2 49 52 281.4 282.1 278.2 293.0 4.16 4 850 1412 -0.2 -0.4 98 0.2 -0.3 67 50 285.9 286.7 280.6 298.3 4.35 5 800 1896 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.5 87 55 289.6 290.3 282.1 301.9 4.28 6 750 2409 -2.6 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.7 109 59 293.7 294.5 283.8 306.0 4.18 7 700 2955 -3.6 -3.7 100 0.1 -3.7 134 62 298.5 299.2 285.7 311.0 4.16 8 650 3540 -5.3 -5.3 100 0.0 -5.3 158 57 303.0 303.8 287.1 315.2 3.97 9 600 4164 -9.4 -9.6 99 0.1 -9.5 175 50 305.2 305.8 287.0 314.8 3.08 10 550 4832 -13.2 -15.9 80 2.7 -14.0 184 46 308.4 308.8 287.1 314.9 2.01 11 500 5551 -18.0 -19.7 86 1.7 -18.5 177 40 311.1 311.4 287.5 316.3 1.60 12 450 6331 -23.2 -26.8 72 3.6 -23.9 171 42 314.1 314.3 287.9 317.3 0.95 13 400 7181 -29.7 -37.8 45 8.1 -30.7 165 48 316.4 316.5 288.0 317.7 0.37 14 350 8118 -37.1 -52.2 19 15.0 -38.0 164 55 318.7 318.7 288.4 319.0 0.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I hope not, I didn't enjoy Thanksgiving. I'm not convinced we see anything more than some mood snow that quickly turns to rain. We are close, but not quite there...need to see the other models continue showing a colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 .[wow I got that right...thats a miracle by itself, much less the column. quote name=dendrite" post="3176611" timestamp="1418048777]That run is like 10-12" of paste here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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