wxmanmitch Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Where can I pull the soundings for 42.8614° N, 71.6253° W? Is the site mitch used above a pay site? No, it's a free site. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Click on the desired model and parameter. To get a sounding, just click on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think those still default to the nearest grid point or reporting station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 No, it's a free site. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Click on the desired model and parameter. To get a sounding, just click on the map. Thanks...looking like a good soaking rain here unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think those still default to the nearest grid point or reporting station? I'm not sure if they do or not. I know Twisterdata does this, but Plymouth State vortex site uses a reverse Barnes analysis to determine the data for a particular location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm not sure if they do or not. I know Twisterdata does this, but Plymouth State vortex site uses a reverse Barnes analysis to determine the data for a particular location. Oh cool..didn't know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Going to be a tough week personally. Big-time OT. My dad passed early this morning. Age 91 would have turned 92 on the solstice, fitting it be Dec 7th. A WW2 vet. Still getting word out to the whole family. This is my first and only mention on social media. I consider many here my friend and in many ways extended family. Tears from heaven all week...fitting. So, so sorry to hear this. My Dad passed away last February and the Army members playing taps, folding the flag and giving it to my Mom was so powerful. Take the time to be kind to yourself. I know there were times when it would just hit me all over again. Share happy memories with your family during the holidays too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Low level jet reaches up to 60 knots on the GFS, while the NAM is up to 70 knots, NAM is three hours later than the GFS with peak winds around 21z on the 9th. Also it looks like a wintry storm system within the next 7-10 days with a cold front moving through followed by a southern stream shortwave trough, cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Agree on the comparison. I was down in the lower HV for the Feb 2010 storm. I was in Putnam County, which is just east of Orange County, where I believe a state of emergency was declared. That was the most fascinating winter storm I have ever experienced. Heavy snow made it all the way to the river level (just above sea level) where about 12 inches accumulated. There was about 18" at 400ft and over 30" above 1000ft. The snow was elevation dependent but much moreso longitudinally dependent. 15 miles east of where I was at 800' got very little snow. The rain/snow cutoff was basically in the middle of Putnam County, and it lingered there in a N-S orientation, which is a situation I have never seen in 30 years. Albany downslopes worse than the lower HV on a NE wind. But I also think it can snow right to the valley if the moisture firehoses into the region at the right angle and we are just far enough west. I want to be in the Helderbergs for this. Yea the downslope can be a killer for ALB if the low level synoptic cyclone ends up being pretty strong and too far to the west... and you can see this reflected in the forecast GFS sounding too for Albany. Pretty deep layer of 30-40 knot westerlies between 850-700 hPa which results in downsloping warming between 850-925-hPa on the sounding (note how the atms is unsaturated in this layer with warmer temperatures). Most people would write off this sounding as strong WAA thats causing the temperature rise in this layer, but the fact that the profile is only unsaturated in this layer suggests its adiabatic descent causing the temperature increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Three shortwaves in question with this storm system, first shortwave is seen on WV imagery around central Montana, followed by the main northern stream shortwave in Minnesota, and a third shortwave within the sub-tropical jet stream over Missouri. The interaction between the three seems to be modeled pretty well right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I actually think that is the warm tongue on that sounding. The mtns are probably lower than 850mb and if it were true downslope, it wouldn't stop at 925mb..it would go to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There probably is some downsloping regardless..but that looks like a combo of a couple of things. One likely being some downslope, but there is also a decent warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Thoughts on the secondary low pressure center on the 12z EURO and various HIRES models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Thoughts on the secondary low pressure center on the 12z EURO and various HIRES models?ukmet hits it hard but torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I actually think that is the warm tongue on that sounding. The mtns are probably lower than 850mb and if it were true downslope, it wouldn't stop at 925mb..it would go to the surface. Ahh I think you are right here... although the subsequent 6 hour period shows what you describe in the GFS sounding with drying down to the surface... point is we will probably need to overcome WAA + Downsloping to really have a shot at significant (warning criteria) snowfall here in Albany, something that might be rather difficult without some impressive precipitation rates. It would certainly help our chances if we can see a subtle eastward shift in the guidance over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ukmet hits it hard but torched Damn, that low level cold air gets scoured out and we are left with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow, Euro is a lot colder...CNE back in the big time thump...even N of the pike could see some decent snows front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ahh I think you are right here... although the subsequent 6 hour period shows what you describe in the GFS sounding with drying down to the surface... point is we will probably need to overcome WAA + Downsloping to really have a shot at significant (warning criteria) snowfall here in Albany, something that might be rather difficult without some impressive precipitation rates. It would certainly help our chances if we can see a subtle eastward shift in the guidance over the next 24 hours. Yeah definitely some downsloping a bit with strong erly flow. Meanwhile, euro smokes NW berks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow, Euro is a lot colder...CNE back in the big time thump...even N of the pike could see some decent snows front end?Berks getting crushed, lookout on that NJ backside too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro with the usual back to reality east tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wonder what kook of a solution the euro will have now with the second low way SE of the first one. Already showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow, Euro is a lot colder...CNE back in the big time thump...even N of the pike could see some decent snows front end? Hope the Ensembles concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro looks like a paint peeler for WIll and Kevin for a long time based in 925. Edit: wrong run, but still some sleet it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wonder what kook of a solution the euro will have now with the second low way SE of the first one. Already showing up. Yeah this could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Interested to see what the second low pressure will look like with the EURO being colder already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Man it slams that 85 knot inflow off of NE Mass into the Berks cold dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Will what do the winds look like from your perspective for Cape Cod, and Nantucket, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah definitely some downsloping a bit with strong erly flow. Meanwhile, euro smokes NW berks now. It does look like the berks still changeover before the heaviest of the precip from round 1 moves out... but agreed, definitely colder due to a further east surface cyclone track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 EC is going for round two on wed again too. Time to go with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It does look like the berks still changeover before the heaviest of the precip from round 1 moves out... but agreed, definitely colder due to a further east surface cyclone track. The NW part could get a real good front ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 We'll have to see if the mid-levels try and cool one more tick...but as it is, that was a big scalp denter for Berks up to Monads and N ORH county for a decent while. But mid-levels are really close...esp Berks, but still elevated warm layer sneaking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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