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Dec 9-10 storm threat


ORH_wxman

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Going to be a tough week personally.

Big-time OT.

My dad passed early this morning. Age 91 would have turned 92 on the solstice, fitting it be Dec 7th. A WW2 vet. Still getting word out to the whole family. This is my first and only mention on social media. I consider many here my friend and in many ways extended family.  Tears from heaven all week...fitting.

So, so sorry to hear this. My Dad passed away last February and the Army members playing taps, folding the flag and giving it to my Mom was so powerful.  

 

Take the time to be kind to yourself. I know there were times when it would just hit me all over again. Share happy memories with your family during the holidays too.

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Low level jet reaches up to 60 knots on the GFS, while the NAM is up to 70 knots, NAM is three hours later than the GFS with peak winds around 21z on the 9th.  Also it looks like a wintry storm system within the next 7-10 days with a cold front moving through followed by a southern stream shortwave trough, cutoff low.

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Agree on the comparison.  I was down in the lower HV for the Feb 2010 storm.  I was in Putnam County, which is just east of Orange County, where I believe a state of emergency was declared.  That was the most fascinating winter storm I have ever experienced.  Heavy snow made it all the way to the river level (just above sea level) where about 12 inches accumulated.  There was about 18" at 400ft and over 30" above 1000ft.  The snow was elevation dependent but much moreso longitudinally dependent.  15 miles east of where I was at 800' got very little snow.  The rain/snow cutoff was basically in the middle of Putnam County, and it lingered there in a N-S orientation, which is a situation I have never seen in 30 years.

 

Albany downslopes worse than the lower HV on a NE wind.  But I also think it can snow right to the valley if the moisture firehoses into the region at the right angle and we are just far enough west.  I want to be in the Helderbergs for this.

 

Yea the downslope can be a killer for ALB if the low level synoptic cyclone ends up being pretty strong and too far to the west... and you can see this reflected in the forecast GFS sounding too for Albany. Pretty deep layer of 30-40 knot westerlies between 850-700 hPa which results in downsloping warming between 850-925-hPa on the sounding (note how the atms is unsaturated in this layer with warmer temperatures). Most people would write off this sounding as strong WAA thats causing the temperature rise in this layer, but the fact that the profile is only unsaturated in this layer suggests its adiabatic descent causing the temperature increase. 

 

7x6xDE7.gif

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Three shortwaves in question with this storm system, first shortwave is seen on WV imagery around central Montana, followed by the main northern stream shortwave in Minnesota, and a third shortwave within the sub-tropical jet stream over Missouri.  The interaction between the three seems to be modeled pretty well right now.

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I actually think that is the warm tongue on that sounding. The mtns are probably lower than 850mb and if it were true downslope, it wouldn't stop at 925mb..it would go to the surface.

 

Ahh I think you are right here... although the subsequent 6 hour period shows what you describe in the GFS sounding with drying down to the surface... point is we will probably need to overcome WAA + Downsloping to really have a shot at significant (warning criteria) snowfall here in Albany, something that might be rather difficult without some impressive precipitation rates. It would certainly help our chances if we can see a subtle eastward shift in the guidance over the next 24 hours. 

 

5fqppTa.gif

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Ahh I think you are right here... although the subsequent 6 hour period shows what you describe in the GFS sounding with drying down to the surface... point is we will probably need to overcome WAA + Downsloping to really have a shot at significant (warning criteria) snowfall here in Albany, something that might be rather difficult without some impressive precipitation rates. It would certainly help our chances if we can see a subtle eastward shift in the guidance over the next 24 hours. 

 

5fqppTa.gif

 

Yeah definitely some downsloping a bit with strong erly flow.

 

Meanwhile, euro smokes NW berks now.

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Yeah definitely some downsloping a bit with strong erly flow.

 

Meanwhile, euro smokes NW berks now.

 

It does look like the berks still changeover before the heaviest of the precip from round 1 moves out... but agreed, definitely colder due to a further east surface cyclone track. 

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We'll have to see if the mid-levels try and cool one more tick...but as it is, that was a big scalp denter for Berks up to Monads and N ORH county for a decent while. But mid-levels are really close...esp Berks, but still elevated warm layer sneaking in.

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