Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 People are so crabby about this event Love the grandstanding and posturing too. Lol I am liking the meterology for sure. Pretty cool evolution,would love to see that second low on the Euro pan out. Not for nothing but in ten days or so we could repeat the setup. Juicy Lucy, perfect base building for our hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The location/track of the low and stall results in a pretty meh impact for SNE outside of the Berks. Even the wind and coastal flood thread isn't anything special.Exactly....the track and length of stall is unique. Big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hello all ; I just posted in the Philly thread but worth repeating here..from a weather stand point fascinating storm to watch evolve .I know .I know for many including me a rain event but heck this Is the hobby we have chosen for good times and not so fun times ..look on the bright side most people agree by end of month pattern becomes more favorable so delayed not denied our snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 My p/c has 3-5" for Tuesday. Here's the ZFP. I'll wind up with a little slush when all is said and one. 20.1/11 Just a little tick E and I can see a solution where you get 3-6" (or more) front end with your elevation and I get 2-4" and if that happens I guarantee that enough will come down that the rain won't wash it away enough that the driveways will have to be cleared of slush or risk a frozen, bumpy skating rink. Just how it goes. Had a friend in town this weekend from Concord NH and as we shoveled the slush off my driveway he was saying how he loathes these snow/sleet to rain/drizzle events and I told him how I've really grown to appreciate them from a weather lovers standpoint. I can still see the two low evolution, as modeled can also end up being disappointing for some as far as expected overall storm potency. I'm with Ray as far as this ending up not being anything that spectacular. Just a big coastal storm that gets wet for many in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I am liking the meterology for sure. Pretty cool evolution,would love to see that second low on the Euro pan out. Not for nothing but in ten days or so we could repeat the setup. Juicy Lucy, perfect base building for our hobbyI agree here. I love what what the early season tendencies portend for the reminder of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Albany tosses a couple to it's western zones, gives a moldy bun to everyone else. 18.2/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I agree here. I love what what the early season tendencies portend for the reminder of the season. Yeah these have been (and are being forecast to be) sizable and juicy events. Some parts of SNE/CNE just missed out on significant ice yesterday with 1-1.5" of QPF in an over-running event. In another month that could be a sizable snowstorm. Same with the coastals lately, one of these hits with the right airmass and it's a major event. This is an interesting storm but not something historic... It's almost like a SWFE where you get 6-12" of briefly heavy at times snow, then like 1-2 days of drizzle/-ZR/-IP. Gotta get over 2 feet in early-mid December in NNE to get historic or really anomalous snowstorm. I could see it becoming noteworthy if we get a widespread area of power outages...it would suck but at the same time raise the impact level with 4-12" of heavy wet paste followed by rain or mix, adding weight to snow laden branches. I don't think anyone wants to lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Then there's a Euro Ens look Isn't that the entire 360 hour run though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Isn't that the entire 360 hour run though? Not you can see its 120 hours worth (Dec 7 to Dec 12) A lot of it is the backlash which is decent on the Euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Isn't that the entire 360 hour run though?Ends on Dec 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ends on Dec 12 Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Impressive!yes hope that's a good compromise. Not seeing the Dacks bullseye without qpf, seems more like a Catskills, Berks Greens, Whites,Mahoosics deal to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not you can see its 120 hours worth (Dec 7 to Dec 12) A lot of it is the backlash which is decent on the Euro ens. Because we can always count on backlash delivering. lol. Does the evolution as currently modeled lend itself to a more favorable backlash set up than we usually see portrayed? I assume the secondary low has a lot to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Because we can always count on backlash delivering. lol. Does the evolution as currently modeled lend itself to a more favorable backlash set up than we usually see portrayed? I assume the secondary low has a lot to do with it. Cold tonight...coldest of the young season so far I think when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Cold tonight...coldest of the young season so far I think when all is said and done. I'm already down to 20/8. Off to the races to see if I can go lower than MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Because we can always count on backlash delivering. lol. Does the evolution as currently modeled lend itself to a more favorable backlash set up than we usually see portrayed? I assume the secondary low has a lot to do with it. Yeah the chances of a backlash development of snow is higher in this setup because the ULL travels underneath us. We still need a couple of other variables to go well such as a solid redevelopment of a TROWAL due to vorticity rotating around, but the first important ingredient is there with the ULL going south of us (assuming it does...if it doesn't, then chances become very low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah these have been (and are being forecast to be) sizable and juicy events. Some parts of SNE/CNE just missed out on significant ice yesterday with 1-1.5" of QPF in an over-running event. In another month that could be a sizable snowstorm. Same with the coastals lately, one of these hits with the right airmass and it's a major event. This is an interesting storm but not something historic... It's almost like a SWFE where you get 6-12" of briefly heavy at times snow, then like 1-2 days of drizzle/-ZR/-IP. Gotta get over 2 feet in early-mid December in NNE to get historic or really anomalous snowstorm. I could see it becoming noteworthy if we get a widespread area of power outages...it would suck but at the same time raise the impact level with 4-12" of heavy wet paste followed by rain or mix, adding weight to snow laden branches. I don't think anyone wants to lose power. get onehttp://www.amazon.com/dp/B00AA6CS86?tag=tsa030-20&ascsubtag=ptw-OTH-1-5-1417483052373qY&ref_=ptw_OTH_1_5_1417483052373qY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 How much an effect does undermodeled cold have on model output once correct data is reingested, check it out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 How much an effect does undermodeled cold have on model output once correct data is reingested, check it out tomorrow. Well we all said models will underestimate it, but in the end..it won't matter much for snow. It might prolong any IP or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Albany tosses a couple to it's western zones, gives a moldy bun to everyone else. 18.2/7[/quot Huge difference from this mornings graphics, text discussion still has uncertainty also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Seas are already 27 ft off the MA, just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Well we all said models will underestimate it, but in the end..it won't matter much for snow. It might prolong any IP or ZR.I mean 850-700 and not the CP, Dendrite west and North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 15.7F here attm Bootleg cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I mean 850-700 and not the CP, Dendrite west and North Well that is what I mean. It's going to torch aloft relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 20 and dropping like a lead ballon here. Is this airmass going to rot going into the event, because this is the coldest antecedent airmass in front of a storm we've had so far, I can't see it going away quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 20 and dropping like a lead ballon here. Is this airmass going to rot going into the event, because this is the coldest antecedent airmass in front of a storm we've had so far, I can't see it going away quickly Won't take much with an hp sliding to our east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Would be nice to get snow showers with occassionally squalls on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Holy tropical storm NAM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The NAM was briefly wet, but TS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Just one of the whacky solutions that we will see tonight Holy tropical storm NAM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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