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Dec 9-10 storm threat


ORH_wxman

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I don't see anything spectacular either.

 

 

Yeah, its definitely an impressive cutoff, but this doesn't really strike me as a once in several decade type impact storm.

 

 

It's a fairly strong coastal that may have an unusual track/stall. The impacts will probably be less than several storms over the past decade.

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Yeah, its definitely an impressive cutoff, but this doesn't really strike me as a once in several decade type impact storm.

It's a fairly strong coastal that may have an unusual track/stall. The impacts will probably be less than several storms over the past decade.

Right. idiosyncrasies....exact track/evolution are unique, though not extraordinary...
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Jerry, Kev....enlighten me. What am I missing? A windy rainstorm is about it as to the sensible appeal. Jerry, you have witnessed Feb 2013, Sandy, October 2011....how is this more anomalous??

There's the 2 storm idea..there's the real chance of backlash accumulating snows to the south coast.. there's high wind aspect, coastal flooding..is it 1938 esque stuff? not at all..but this is not our normal , typical winter Nor' easter .Does it suck we're pissing most of December away ..yes it does...but this is certainly something out of the ordinary IMO

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There's the 2 storm idea..there's the real chance of backlash accumulating snows to the south coast.. there's high wind aspect, coastal flooding..is it 1938 esque stuff? not at all..but this is not our normal , typical winter Nor' easter .Does it suck we're pissing most of December away ..yes it does...but this is certainly something out of the ordinary IMO

Out of the ordinary, yes....I said anomalous. A tropical storm backing in on the cape is aomalous, too, though nothing extraordinary from a sensible weather appeal.
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There's the 2 storm idea..there's the real chance of backlash accumulating snows to the south coast.. there's high wind aspect, coastal flooding..is it 1938 esque stuff? not at all..but this is not our normal , typical winter Nor' easter .Does it suck we're pissing most of December away ..yes it does...but this is certainly something out of the ordinary IMO

We'll have a million nor'easters impact us more than this will. Nobody will remember a low that delivers days of clouds after a couple of days of rain.

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crushed Mitch12_GFS_054_42.52-73.06_skewt_ML.gif

 

The GFS is keeping the low a tad further east and not hugging it along the NJ coast, which keeps things a little colder here, allowing for the front end dump. Even the Euro would imply a front end dump as well. As others have said, sometimes the models underestimate the cold around here, even with retreating highs. That 1 or 2° will make a difference. That said, I think the CMC and the NAM may be a little too warm.

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Jerry, Kev....enlighten me. What am I missing? A windy rainstorm is about it as to the sensible appeal. Jerry, you have witnessed Feb 2013, Sandy, October 2011....how is this more anomalous??

Days and days of spinning vortex throwing moisture at us. Plenty of wind with the pressure gradient. October 2011 was anomalous entirely due to snow. 2013 was right up there but it did not stall. That is a rare bird.

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I was n't under the impression the event was over-sold anyway.  

 

I think maybe 7 days ago all indications was a milder than normal, benign ..."boring" for lack of better word,  future that had an indefinite lease at that.  Then, this thing came into the picture, and the pendulum may have swung a bit over compensated back into talking about it.  

 

I know Jerry just mentioned "..In his 68 years.."  okay.  But the first half of this thread was about snow chances... anyway.  The title of this thread should have been changed to, 

Dec 9-10 no snowstorm, haha, all rain threat but thanks for wasting your time and love

 

haha, J/K

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It'll go down as a top 15-20 storm when it's all said and done from the Apps to NY state to New England when all aspects are taken into consideration. Not meh

Should be a njce storm for the elevated interior... Dacks/NNE. Not sure there's going to be much of interest down here besides something that's cool to watch on the water vapor loop.

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My p/c has 3-5" for Tuesday.  Here's the ZFP.  I'll wind up with a little slush when all is said and one.

 

Tonight: Mostly clear. Colder with lows around 11. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph this evening.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and freezing drizzle. Not as cool. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Tuesday: Rain and snow. Moderate snow accumulation. Not as cool with highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Tuesday Night: Rain with freezing rain likely. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Wednesday And Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s

 

 

20.1/11

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Powder',  ... my issue is with tainting/spinning truth of a depiction relative to one's desires, up or down... It's the "act" of doing, not the up or the down.  And, motives being transparent despite the posters attempt to keep their bias concealed... that is ad nauseam. And, I argue that it is detectable -- even in the lesser communicative anonymity of the internet, you can see by word choice and "cadence" (if you will..) 

as much as you may wahnt this to be strictly a scientific forum, it is not, nor will it be. it is a public forum with 90% non-science/meteorologists and 10% meteorologists. unfortunately for you, we are all allowed to post here and talk about the weather, about our opinions and what we "want" to see. 100% of us have our biases, that is not arguable. 

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