CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 its not a horrible run. ITs still close to a big hit in my opinion . it looks like when it gets captured up near Portsmouth, 850's on the back side are crashing below zero and when it occludes and becomes vertically stacked the cold air wraps right into the center as it it retrogrades westward. obviously with the track right over us we have to worry about dry air entrainmentand the best for forcing and dynamics get pushed off to our north and westbut it doesn't look horrible in my opinion. It's bad for you. 850s furnace for you. Congrats on flurries on the backside. It's actually interesting for HubbDave because dynamics sort of help keep him a pasty snow for awhile. A euro ensemble solution is better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The writing was on the wall yesterday for anyone south of the NH border and east of the River.. The scary part is there's still room for it to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 850 looks like it goes up to about 1. 3 or so in my area with the surge of warm air aloft but then crashes down to - 2 with precipitation ongoing.obviously everything shuts off as the low center goes directly overhead but it still looks like the text output is giving Bradley over .5 of precipitation with the 850 's dropping below zero but the surface temps look warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Just look at who was on the desk.. It's going over E Mass..That's almost a lock nowI don't think its anywhere near a lock. I think we ultimately see a blended track as we did with the last storm. This will likely go east of Ack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 850 looks like it goes up to about 1. 3 or so in my area with the surge of warm air aloft but then crashes down to - 2 with precipitation ongoing.obviously everything shuts off as the low center goes directly overhead but it still looks like the text output is giving Bradley over .5 of precipitation with the 850 's dropping below zero but the surface temps look warm All that precip seems like stuff on the backside that likely would not occur as robust as modeled. Either way, the op run may be a little too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 All that precip seems like stuff on the backside that likely would not occur as robust as modeled. Either way, the op run may be a little too excited. Where exactly did the ENS take it? Brian had said ugly ENS and op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The writing was on the wall yesterday for anyone south of the NH border and east of the River.. The scary part is there's still room for it to come west. Could also go east? Maybe the EURO is doing what it did last storm and amped way up at Day 3-5 only to shift a bit east in the end. I'm just shocked you are calling for a further west and not east solution. We'll remember this, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Where exactly did the ENS take it? Brian had said ugly ENS and op I mentioned earlier right near or just east of the elbow of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 obviously the trends look somewhat discouraging, especially for the coast but there still is time. it still looks to me based on the current European fact that there is a gray area in northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts where slight changes in the track and intensity of the storm and the thermal profiles can make a huge difference. let's hope this baby doesn't shift any further west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Similar evolution on the models to the last event? Gfs way late to the game but euro ultimately was to far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Our biggest problem seems to me at least to be the movement of the system back in time by 36-48 hours from it's initial prog. When we had it modeled on Sunday night-Monday, the Canadian high was in a perfect position to work with the storm to lock in cold air, and as a result, more of us saw a snow event. Now that we're pushed back quite a bit(0z EURO doesn't bring the storm to our latitude until hour 120), the favorable high we had is retreating if not gone entirely from the picture, and as a result, we're forced to rely on dynamics/a stale air mass and there's nothing to stop us from warming. Best thing we can do to save this event for the CP IMO is to trend it faster by quite a bit, but considering once systems start getting pushed back it's rare to see them jump forward again, I don't know how likely that is... There's certainly other ways to get some(Not all snow, that's not going to happen) snow on the CP, but if you want an all snow solution, that's what we'd have to do I think. Just shows how timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I wonder what para would do? The old gfs is thankfully in its last days of operation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 I thought the ensembles looked pretty good for most of the interior...but obviously they aren't a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ensemble would be a lot better for the interior. It also makes more sense as a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well that was an ugly op/ens run. I wish we were still seeing that strong CAD signal. It's interesting that the euro got a lot stronger with that nrn stream system like the GFS has been doing. Huh the ens look fantastic for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Kind of scratched my head as the ensembles did look better on the Euro and the GFS then some portrayed here but long ways to go for this one and nothing is locked down other then it looks like we have a storm to track, And it may not resolve itself for another day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 wow on the interior folks, I don't get their angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The ensembles did get mild at 850, but if that track were to happen...I don't think it would get as mild aloft where Brian is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 I will say that I am not a fan fo the stronger northern stream look...however, if we are stuck with it getting involved...we'll want full-on phase and pinwheel back W and WSW with the low...just have it happen to our east and not over our heads and we'd get in on the goods. If we keep only partial N stream involvement, then we'll want it as weak as possible to hold the high in as long as possible. There's still a long ways to go with this, so I'd be very careful about jumping on one suite and calling them "trends"....people made that mistake on the previous 00z suite when it looked more out to sea, only to have the 12z suite come back...this isn't going to be a smooth model ride with the way this develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Kind of scratched my head as the ensembles did look better on the Euro and the GFS then some portrayed here but long ways to go for this one and nothing is locked down other then it looks like we have a storm to track, And it may not resolve itself for another day or two Its frustrating reading here sometimes and its always always why I take the time each morning to look at everything before I even read here. even the Euro Op run crushes some people here who appear to be trembling with fear. Montreal rain? yea Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I wonder what para would do? The old gfs is thankfully in its last days of operation. Which wound up verifying better (well...less worse?) with the Nov 26 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Still a ways away... that high really wants to tease up...but can it please us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Which wound up verifying better (well...less worse?) with the Nov 26 event? its just as much a disaster at 13Km as its Dad. Higher resolution junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Its frustrating reading here sometimes and its always always why I take the time each morning to look at everything before I even read here. even the Euro Op run crushes some people here who appear to be trembling with fear. Montreal rain? yea Ok I do the same Steve, I look at everything from overnight and the ensembles as well before making a comment based off of what some say on here, Reading this morning it sounded like it was going to rain all the way to logan11............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 wow on the interior folks, I don't get their angst.24 hour panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Its frustrating reading here sometimes and its always always why I take the time each morning to look at everything before I even read here. even the Euro Op run crushes some people here who appear to be trembling with fear. Montreal rain? yea Ok At the time range of still 100+ hours and a complex evolution, I try and not get into "it looks like sh** here, and great here" dialogue too deeply since that's a specific detail that cannot be forecasted...the synoptic setup can be said to favor the interior as a whole just very generally...but that is pretty much going to be the case in a non-perfect setup everytime, especially in December. It's basically innate to any storm storm without a good high over Ontario or Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Nrn stream seems to screw the area somewhat no matter what. You have the piece ahead of it in the TN valley that ignites cyclogenesis. Maybe it tracks closer to the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 As complex as this one is, The model swings can be quite substantial even this far or close in however you want to look at it so i think we will not see this resolved for at least another day or so or longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That's one hell of a wound up system on the foreign guidance, regardless of precip. Quirky setup too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 At the time range of still 100+ hours and a complex evolution, I try and not get into "it looks like sh** here, and great here" dialogue too deeply since that's a specific detail that cannot be forecasted...the synoptic setup can be said to favor the interior as a whole just very generally...but that is pretty much going to be the case in a non-perfect setup everytime, especially in December. It's basically innate to any storm storm without a good high over Ontario or Quebec. there is going to be, I think, this hellacious CF bisecting NE somewhere, west of there is going to get pummeled and then heights will crash. Big potential for a stall it appears. Where it all sets up is the detail but with that 8H inflow tremendous lift and dynamical snows . another power stealing type snowstorm seems to be in the cards for the same areas that just got raked, maybe farther inland but this looks like a doozy. the 1992 type elevation parrallels are not too far off IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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