Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 To exemplify Will's statement, one which I highly endorse .... you can see here that a cut-off event is really preventing us from having one helluva warm December first half... Kind of ironic as we ponder whether this thing might deliver some wintry aspects. Indeed, it's an impressive event either way and inspires. The spring tide looks tame though, because as Steve mentioned earlier, that is a long time to sustain a onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 These cut offs are more prominent on the bookends of the season because the wave lengths are shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 You know...upon seeing that latter NAM new low hook-and-latter deal... It makes me wonder; what if the first wave has been over developed all along, and will we see that 2nd one become more dominant in future runs. Hmmm. Since I was pondering the same thing as I drove to Home Depot, I have to conclude that your wrong. It would be pretty funny though if it played out that way. Who knows, maybe I'll return from my trip in snow. 23.3/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Since I was pondering the same thing as I drove to Home Depot, I have to conclude that your wrong. It would be pretty funny though if it played out that way. Who knows, maybe I'll return from my trip in snow. 23.3/11 lol. right - Not sure if this has been mentioned .. but it is nice to see NWS is on to this. We are establishing an ENE flow in fresh "snowable" critical thicknesses from off ocean tomorrow, so it could be rather wintry appealed and not really related to the mid week storm. ON MONDAY...THERE IS THE RISK THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Box really meh's everything down to a run of the mill. Really kind of a lackluster effort of an AFD facing something so large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Box really meh's everything down to a run of the mill. Really kind of a lackluster effort of an AFD facing something so large Yeah ... there's no fun in just telling the straight objective truth without lying about impact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Box really meh's everything down to a run of the mill. Really kind of a lackluster effort of an AFD facing something so large What I have come to find, and just like in any Profession, you have enthusiastic people that really put their all/emotion into things. And then you have others that are not turned on by/enthused with much of anything in their respective fields. Meteorology is no different. We have great METS in here, that get excited about what they see....and it's really nice to see. And then there are those that just go throught the motions. Not saying that was the case above...although it could be?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah ... there's no fun in just telling the straight objective truth without lying about impact...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well, for most in the BOX coverage area it will be a big pool of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 These cut offs are more prominent on the bookends of the season because the wave lengths are shorter. It's a good point, Ray... I'd also add that we just came through a kind of micro-winter relative to climo, with that super typhoon that recurved and fused into the NP SPV ... snapping a long wave configuration down stream that drilled in spectacular continental cold anomalies/LE event... That whole polar jet construct is relaxed(ing) away, and it's like it's led into this cut-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm licking my chops, as in I rarely have seen something as modeled over my 68 years on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm licking my chops, as in I rarely have seen something as modeled over my 68 years on earth.That was my point about Box. They have it as a generic breezy rainstorm. Maybe that's all it ends up being, but somehow that seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 What I have come to find, and just like in any Profession, you have enthusiastic people that really put their all/emotion into things. And then you have others that are not turned on by/enthused with much of anything in their respective fields. Meteorology is no different. We have great METS in here, that get excited about what they see....and it's really nice to see. And then there are those that just go throught the motions. Not saying that was the case above...although it could be??I know some will jump down my throat, but what is so awe inspiring about a December cut off that brings heavy snow to the mountains and rain and wind to the coastal plane? Anomalous, sure......but nothing that hasn't been experienced quite a bit in the past. I mean, if this were October or May, but....its not just me being parochial, either. The LES was absolutely extraordinary, but nothing about this is....tides, nothing. Anomalous, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That was my point about Box. They have it as a generic breezy rainstorm. Maybe that's all it ends up being, but somehow that seems unlikely Maybe for us in Interior CT that's all we will get out of this is breezy rain. Joe Deleo also agrees with Weatherfella that what is being modeled currently is Spectacular. Maybe the end result won't be anything spectacular outside of the MNTS and say the immediate coast...but who knows??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Strictly depicted .. the 2nd low pulling NW is still rain in the heaviest QPF region... The highly inverted nature/core wrapping of the warm over top out there in time is classic for mid level centers that lack better low lvl baroclinicity. Yeah the problem with that second low, even if it explodes a bit, the first one has already wrapped mid-level warmth all through CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I know some will jump down my throat, but what is so awe inspiring about a December cut off that brings heavy snow to the mountains and rain and wind to the coastal plane? Anomalous, sure......but nothing that hasn't been experienced quite a bit in the past. I mean, if this were October or May, but....its not just me being parochial, either. The LES was absolutely extraordinary, but nothing about this is....tides, nothing. Anomalous, yes. Very good point...and I can certainly see your ideas there. Another thing with Meteorology(again just like any profession) is that it is highly Subjective regarding how each MET actually views certain set ups, and certain atmospheric Phenomenon. To each their own I suppose. I suppose if I was a MET/lived in the Pocono's or the Adirondacks, or the Maine/New Hampshire/Green Mountains we might be a little more pumped so to speak/impressed with what might happen? Again, Atmospherically speaking this is a different critter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Jerry, Kev....enlighten me. What am I missing? A windy rainstorm is about it as to the sensible appeal. Jerry, you have witnessed Feb 2013, Sandy, October 2011....how is this more anomalous?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah the problem with that second low, even if it explodes a bit, the first one has already wrapped mid-level warmth all through CNE/NNE.Yeah. Instead of 2-3 feet maybe your area will only get 1-2 feet instead. I'm cooked here aside from an ocean effect flurry tomorrow but it will be fun to watch this unfold from a purely meteorological point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 It's fine to be interested in the meteorology behind an interesting cut off, but I don't see it as anything we havent seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Maybe the idiosyncrasies regarding track and evolution, but other than that, I don't see how this is unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Dec 1992 far exceeded this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Congrats Berks Greens Maniacs on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm licking my chops, as in I rarely have seen something as modeled over my 68 years on earth. Which is a possible red flag that we still could still see some dramatic model changes take place pertaining to the final evolution. I just got a chance to look at Euro and it sure looks like that 2nd low may not be done blossoming but much better eyes than mine have already commented on that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Maybe the idiosyncrasies regarding track and evolution, but other than that, I don't see how this is unprecedented.The track is what interests me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm licking my chops, as in I rarely have seen something as modeled over my 68 years on earth.I tried to analog such a long drawn out blocked cutoff and pretty much came up empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Congrats Berks Greens Maniacs on the GFS Mere miles separating winners from losers there. I could drive 20 minutes through water logged slush to a raging white out if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah. Instead of 2-3 feet maybe your area will only get 1-2 feet instead. lol it wasn't a complaint by any means...more of an observation that seems to be warranted. To me, this is all about that front end thump, and I think CNE/NNE sees a fairly widespread 6-12" of mashed potatoes with that before the dry slot. I think its too hard to even speculate about any further accumulations later in the storm as it does warm up at H85 and takes a while to cool that down. I could see it even snowing well south of here like in SNE or SVT/SNH while the NNE mtns are still dealing with that warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Congrats Berks Greens Maniacs on the GFS Yeah that run really smoked the southern Greens. There's a lot of inhabited high elevation spots there too in SVT...like a decent amount of people live above 1,500ft or at least have second homes there. Same with the Catskills...lots of towns in the 1,500ft-2,400ft elevation range. They're going to get crushed as well. They do real good with east flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah that run really smoked the southern Greens. There's a lot of inhabited high elevation spots there too in SVT...like a decent amount of people live above 1,500ft or at least have second homes there.total paste job depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I don't see anything spectacular either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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