weathafella Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well nstar had a planned outage from 1am which ended up lasting 12 hours. Nice to have the house warm back up. Crazy folks who want unplanned power losses...... Im with ginxy. This is a fascinatingly crazy evolution and that alone is worth tracking despite no real expectation of much aside from rain and wind and maybe some oes tomorrow and minimal front end frozen overnight towards Tuesday. These evolutions become possible in sh'tty patterns when you get such a strong cold island north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Schwibs issued a Winter Storm Watch for GYX's NW zones in the mountains for 10-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Schwibs issued a Winter Storm Watch for GYX's NW zones in the mountains for 10-14". Prelimnary map to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Fascinating storm coming. Don't care if I don't get any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Fascinating storm coming. Don't care if I don't get any snow.Exactly,would be nice but eventually it will snow a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The W. Maine ski season will be off to good start. Wish I could get to SL this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Exactly,would be nice but eventually it will snow a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 BTV going snowy for the Greens....color me skeptical of no mixing in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 BTV issues a Watch... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK EXCEPT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY ALSO BE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE IN EASTERN VERMONT.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Exactly,would be nice but eventually it will snow a lot Ginxy, Joe DeLeo is in your corner as well with the blocking idea...says the storm is cut-off(obviously), but also blocked by Southern Canadian High Pressure. Says it is going to be a Major Storm...(JB says the real deal)..with High wind driven rain and Monstrous snows. A very long evolution/duration storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well they do real well on a NE wind at H85...real well. That to them is like a SE flow to Sunday River. That's why Whiteface got 3 feet on Memorial Day a couple years ago...prolonged NE flow. It's not even SLK as much but those eastern high peaks would get absolutely slaughtered in that ECMWF solution. Yeah there's basically no NW upslope flow on the Euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah there's basically no NW upslope flow on the Euro lol. Yeah doesn't get far enough north...we need to get that low north of our latitude to have any shot at that on the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Ginxy, Joe DeLeo is in your corner as well with the blocking idea...says the storm is cut-off(obviously), but also blocked by Southern Canadian High Pressure. Says it is going to be a Major Storm...(JB says the real deal)..with High wind driven rain and Monstrous snows. A very long evolution/duration storm. There's no true upper air block though like you often see in other monster storms...this is mostly due to just cutting off from the polar jet. The April 1997 storm did this...no real blocking for that storm either. This storm has reminded some of us of a spring cutoff setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 NAM now showing second storm ala Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Semantically a blocked cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yes Will. This is more cutoff bootleg ridging to the north, but not a block. Those pretty reds indicate higher than normal heights, but it's not a block. Sometimes those higher heights above a cutoff low can help with keeping the cutoff in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Powder', ... my issue is with tainting/spinning truth of a depiction relative to one's desires, up or down... It's the "act" of doing, not the up or the down. And, motives being transparent despite the posters attempt to keep their bias concealed... that is ad nauseam. And, I argue that it is detectable -- even in the lesser communicative anonymity of the internet, you can see by word choice and "cadence" (if you will..) Will, Exactly! I was thinking the same thing, that as we wring hands trying to eek a snow event out of a chicken schit, if it wasn't for this cut-off event we'd be talking one helluva extended, balmy Indian Summer. This also hearkens back to my idea from yesterday, that this thing is acting very much like a cut-off spring April type west Atlantic gyre. At lot of spring heat wave cancels have taken place in the past over tuck-in cut-offs that rattle around inside a much large scaled ridge tendency. It's not an exact analog, of course.. it just sort of smacks as that. Heck, 168 hours out and the oper. Euro still has this thing whirling around E of the MA, though in a weakened ineffectual form. Did you guys see the 18z NAM? It actually wraps a new low back NW over the top of the closed low, and punches a new QPF max through southern NH/VT. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I bet Ekster is going to hate the fact that the storm will fall in my time period and not his tonight. Or we just go straight GFS and call it a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 NAM now showing second storm ala Eurono Tip we didn't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 You know...upon seeing that latter NAM new low hook-and-latter deal... It makes me wonder; what if the first wave has been over developed all along, and will we see that 2nd one become more dominant in future runs. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yes Will. This is more cutoff bootleg ridging to the north, but not a block. Those pretty reds indicate higher than normal heights, but it's not a block. Sometimes those higher heights above a cutoff low can help with keeping the cutoff in place. Yeah, really what the height anomalies indicate is that the polar jet has retreated much further north than normal which leaves the cutoff behind and nothing to really kick it out...it's not blocked in the sense that a Feb 78 was blocked or a Feb '69 was blocked...it is simply cutoff and left behind by a retreating poleward PJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 You know...upon seeing that latter NAM new low hook-and-latter deal... It makes me wonder; what if the first wave has been over developed all along, and will we see that 2nd one become more dominant in future runs. Hmmm.I think the Euro was hinting at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 My internet psycho analysis thread is open. Meanwhile we can discuss model output and possible outcomes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 no Tip we didn't see it What ? whatever that means ... Anyway these better resolved model types (smaller mesh) might be able to cut through clatter, and it is entirely possible that these might first detect (save for the "Can'tnadian") just such a scenario where a first low was over-cooked all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I think the Euro was hinting at that Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Will be fun to watch from down here, going to be an interesting few days there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Rain or snow, this should be a helluva storm to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Strictly depicted .. the 2nd low pulling NW is still rain in the heaviest QPF region... The highly inverted nature/core wrapping of the warm over top out there in time is classic for mid level centers that lack better low lvl baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yes Will. This is more cutoff bootleg ridging to the north, but not a block. Those pretty reds indicate higher than normal heights, but it's not a block. Sometimes those higher heights above a cutoff low can help with keeping the cutoff in place. [/quote Joe Deleo calls it Blocking High pressure....his words not mine. You call it Bootleg Ridging. Something is in this things way in addition to it being cut off...hence it's being blocked from moving NNE and away from the area. Whatever words or phrase we choose to use to put a name on it probably doesn't matter. What matters is it's not able to move on a traditional path...hence it's Blocked. Yes it's not a traditional -NAO like we like to see, but it's a Banana High, blocking the system from moving away. And isn't Blocking nothing more than HP/higher than normal heights in the artctic regions...aka Greenland, Northern Alaska, North Pole.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I know its in its bad range but the RGEM has to be too mild...no way SYR or BGM will struggle to be all snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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