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Dec 9-10 storm threat


ORH_wxman

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Man, that's ugly.  Get out the forks.

 

 

LOL.  The UK has landfall between Old Saybrook and New London

I wouldn't suggest championing the notion of withdrawing emotional investment in a system that has long since been rendered tenuous at best, and has been edging westward in guidance.....the optimism gods will trounce you.

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I've been thinking it's a foregone conclusion that everyone, even the summits, go over to rain or drizzle is a better word...before going back to snow again. It's going to warm up in that dry slot once losing the strong lift and dynamic cooling elements. The key will be how much snow can be laid down first, and what type of backside or upslope snow can take place. But lay down 6-12" of slop before drizzle and then a few more on the back end, still a good event.

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I've been thinking it's a foregone conclusion that everyone, even the summits, go over to rain or drizzle is a better word...before going back to snow again. It's going to warm up in that dry slot once losing the strong lift and dynamic cooling elements. The key will be how much snow can be laid down first, and what type of backside or upslope snow can take place. But lay down 6-12" of slop before drizzle and then a few more on the back end, still a good event.

 

The damage will have already been done by the time it flips for those areas so the rain/drizzle not going to matter much

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I suggest abandoning the investment ship as it relates to this week's system....as far as I'm concerned, let's replenish the mall parking lot bankings in the south towns of Buffalo.

 

Steve, I'm not sure what was unwise about that advice. That was the initial post that you responded to. 

Do I think the Dack very well may end up jackpotting?

Yes, absolutely.

NNE may get a front ender, but the vast majority of the posters here are going to see very little snow, and saying that idea is relegated to the cp is absolutely silly because it isn't.

there's more to this forum than East Massachusetts and SNH but it's your call ADks and TUG hill.good luck

 

 

I've been thinking it's a foregone conclusion that everyone, even the summits, go over to rain or drizzle is a better word...before going back to snow again. It's going to warm up in that dry slot once losing the strong lift and dynamic cooling elements. The key will be how much snow can be laid down first, and what type of backside or upslope snow can take place.

Exactly.

The answer for a lot of folks, probably not you but certainly well beyond the cp, will not be much.

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I've been thinking it's a foregone conclusion that everyone, even the summits, go over to rain or drizzle is a better word...before going back to snow again. It's going to warm up in that dry slot once losing the strong lift and dynamic cooling elements. The key will be how much snow can be laid down first, and what type of backside or upslope snow can take place. But lay down 6-12" of slop before drizzle and then a few more on the back end, still a good event.

This is where I stand. I'm hoping the CAD is being underestimated a bit and that I can hold onto the BL cold enough before the H85 0C rockets to my NW. Most models drop about 0.50" QPF here with a deep low-level layer of 0 to +1C.

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This is where I stand. I'm hoping the CAD is being underestimated a bit and that I can hold onto the BL cold enough before the H85 0C rockets to my NW. Most models drop about 0.50" QPF here with a deep low-level layer of 0 to +1C.

 

And typically, It ends up being underestimated by the models that we have seen time and time again

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Okay ... I just bothered to read the last several pages;  very palpable impression of jumping on the most anti-snow/winter appeal as more plausible for verification. 

 

I wonder why that is?   I think perhaps it may be a defense mechanism.  I realize that this is really more an emotional/personal investment for the majority (whether that is "in lieu" of the objective analytic skill or not), and that requires  ... "interesting recourse" for lack of better words.  But guys -- the most skilled model out there is colder and snowier at least into the els.  Perhaps the 12z will come in different - okay - but until that takes place, it's really almost amusing that a negative appeal on this thing seems to have already verified.  Ha!  wow.  

 

Also, re the GGEM .. it's own ensemble mean is virtually right on top of the 00z oper. Euro's surface depiction for 84-96 hours. That's a pretty strong indication that the oper. warm appeal is fubar...

 

 

2014120700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMB

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I never called you a Debbie...I just said that you aren't as concerned with letting people down as you used to be.

Ironically, we know who did utilize the Debbie moniker....

Lol it was more in reference to your approach of the situation vs Steve's approach. Wasn't being sarcastic or anything.

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Dude you are sooooo a Debbie.

He's injecting a dose of reality into the situation. With 3 mostly rain systems within a 2 week period for many folks here I would say many of us having a Debbie Does Downer artitude is par for the course right about now.

Some may be good with the rain - winter crops...no red flag warnings... makes for good 4 wheeling...whatever you enjoy about endless december rain. Embrace it and rain on!

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He's injecting a dose of reality into the situation. With 3 mostly rain systems within a 2 week period for many folks here I would say many of us having a Debbie Does Downer artitude is par for the course right about now.

Some may be good with the rain - winter crops...no red flag warnings... makes for good 4 wheeling...whatever you enjoy about endless december rain. Embrace it and rain on!

Some will win

Some will lose

Some were born to sing the blues

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Okay ... I just bothered to read the last several pages; very palpable impression of jumping on the most anti-snow/winter appeal as more plausible for verification.

I wonder why that is? I think perhaps it may be a defense mechanism. I realize that this is really more an emotional/personal investment for the majority (whether that is "in lieu" of the objective analytic skill or not), and that requires ... "interesting recourse" for lack of better words. But guys -- the most skilled model out there is colder and snowier at least into the els. Perhaps the 12z will come in different - okay - but until that takes place, it's really almost amusing that a negative appeal on this thing seems to have already verified. Ha! wow.

You have become quite the psychologist lately on here.

And didn't you just yesterday slam those that were looking for a way to salvage this storm or find a colder scenario? Now when they don't or seem less enthused you are telling everyone that a snowier appeal may take place?

I'm so confused.

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He's injecting a dose of reality into the situation. With 3 mostly rain systems within a 2 week period for many folks here I would say many of us having a Debbie Does Downer artitude is par for the course right about now.

Some may be good with the rain - winter crops...no red flag warnings... makes for good 4 wheeling...whatever you enjoy about endless december rain. Embrace it and rain on!

so if it doesn't snow iyby nobody else gets smoked in our forum, got it. Don't think a single poster on the CP expects anything. What dose of reality is that again.
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He's injecting a dose of reality into the situation. With 3 mostly rain systems within a 2 week period for many folks here I would say many of us having a Debbie Does Downer artitude is par for the course right about now.

Some may be good with the rain - winter crops...no red flag warnings... makes for good 4 wheeling...whatever you enjoy about endless december rain. Embrace it and rain on!

It sucks, but its really early. The pattern looks like it may be improving towards the end of the month.

Most folks, especially on the coastal plain dont have huge snows in the first week of December. I'm happy we have events, eventually they will be snow.

Lot still needs to go right to get snow in SNE in the first few weeks of December

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