moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 BOX's AFD is a downer for snow. Their forecast for GC looks like it's pretty wet at this point, but it does talk about some accumulation. Not as good as last night's which had no reference to rain. What's the take on the EC ensembles? Monday Night: Snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Not as cool with lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.Tuesday: Snow and rain. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Not as cool with highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.Tuesday Night: Snow and rain. Brisk and not as cool. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.Wednesday: Rain and snow showers likely. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s.Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s.Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro keeps the low around thru next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 MPM that forecast looks fairly good with light snow followed by moderate snow accums and several periods after that of snow or rain. That's what the zones look like up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 GGEM was a hellacious front end thump before going to rain to Montreal...then back to snow for New England at the end. Upstate NY gets into that favorable location of the mid-level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 MPM that forecast looks fairly good with light snow followed by moderate snow accums and several periods after that of snow or rain. That's what the zones look like up here too. I'd rather be in your shoes The CMC blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Sad to see posts about a cut off looping around the BM, yet no chance of any snow anywhere close to any area of consequence in sne. Sucks so much. The euro isn't going to happen anyways, but again.....crap pattern, crap solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The euro isn't going to happen anyways, but again.....crap pattern, crap solutions. Don't bring me down. My hopes hang on the EC. 26.7/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Don't bring me down. My hopes hang on the EC. 26.7/19 I mean verbatim. It may stall and then move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I Thought overall the EPS Ensemble members looked SLIGHTLY better for marginal areas, especially at 850 but surface temps still suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I Thought overall the EPS Ensemble members looked SLIGHTLY better for marginal areas, especially at 850 but surface temps still suck. That was my take, but all I can see are the 24-hour intervals. That requires a lot of (probably wrong) assumptions by me. 26.4/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That was my take, but all I can see are the 24-hour intervals. That requires a lot of (probably wrong) assumptions by me. 26.4/19 Yes a few more favorable tracks and snow map algorithm hits in marginal areas, I cant see specific temp profiles for each model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The euro isn't going to happen anyways, but again.....crap pattern, crap solutions. There have been a plethora of large QPF events this fall and early winter, one of these is bound to hit with a comfortably cold column and then it's go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That no one from SNE is posting speaks volumes as to the excitement felt from the 00z models. 25.9/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I would like to see a stronger central pressure down in the 980's like a few members have as well Might help cool off the column for some more marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I would like to see a stronger central pressure down in the 980's like a few members have as well Might help cool off the column for some more marginal situations. I imagine a smidge further east would have the safe effect. I suspect that the Oneonta area will be the big winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'd be much more comfortable if I were up another 1000 ft in elevation... the evolution here is very reminiscent of the February 2010 cyclones that occluded and dumped an incredible amount of elevation snowfall in the Catskills and Adirondacks, but very little in the valley. Don't think sleet or freezing rain will be a significant concern with this event since the surface low will be vertically stacked, meaning little chance of a substantial cold layer to allow substantial sleet accumulation. Probably elevation dependent rain or snow and not much other frozen precip. Looks more like that as we get closer, oceans of qpf with near isothermal temps zero to 1C up thru h7. Slushy mashed potatoes, here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Looks more like that as we get closer, oceans of qpf with near isothermal temps zero to 1C up thru h7. Slushy mashed potatoes, here we come. Some of those hilltops away from the Sandy River could do OK. My uncle lives on the hill on 41 in Vienna and says he often does better than Farmington Falls in marginal set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I think Blizz has rubbed off on these 2 @SurfSkiWxMan: Fcst Rn, got Sn BOS MT @BigJoeBastardi Storm in a way reminds me of Dec 1992, dont think this will be as bad. Huge high to north was big key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 2/25/10 was ok here. 10" then rain I would prefer 2/27/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Surprised you got 10. Most places only had a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well hopefully a little snow here tomorrow from ocean effect stuff. It's good to get another coastal storm despite whatever temps do. Hopefully the trend is our friend as we head deeper into the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 NWS Albany seems to think you might get quite a bit of snow because their Zones immediately bordering you over the VT line and to your west are in the 10-14" and 14-18" categories. They depict less immediately along the CT valley in VT. That was my take, but all I can see are the 24-hour intervals. That requires a lot of (probably wrong) assumptions by me. 26.4/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 NWS Albany seems to think you might get quite a bit of snow because their Zones immediately bordering you over the VT line and to your west are in the 10-14" and 14-18" categories. They depict less immediately along the CT valley in VT. He's going to do well. Same old story with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well when I mentioned 1992 I was talking about how the low was closed off south of NE and the surface low doing the loop de loop and having the second redevelopment. I wasn't implying that it's origins were similar, obviously a very different pattern led to that. I think Blizz has rubbed off on these 2@SurfSkiWxMan: Fcst Rn, got Sn BOS MT @BigJoeBastardi Storm in a way reminds me of Dec 1992, dont think this will be as bad. Huge high to north was big key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Northern Berkshires Definetely in play here. NW CT has some decent potential on some modeling as well. Ct river valley and south of the pike need a lot of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Ha, euro implies a big SOS signal here. Not sure about that behavior on the second low though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 He's going to do well. Same old story with him. Yeah, Mike won't have qpf worries as there is plenty available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That Euro run is tough to take seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Surprised you got 10. Most places only had a few inchesI looked it up. I got 12.0" and Ashburnham and Gardner got 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well when I mentioned 1992 I was talking about how the low was closed off south of NE and the surface low doing the loop de loop and having the second redevelopment. I wasn't implying that it's origins were similar, obviously a very different pattern led to that. I can't recall your post. But for a big met and a big regional met to mention that in media... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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