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Dec 9-10 storm threat


ORH_wxman

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I can't see anything between H85 and 2m, but I was thinking isothermal paste job on the front end.

Yeah...was just looking at wxbell (it wasnt out when you first posted). One good thing looks like the timing is overnight Tuesday...not high impact for either commute...but yeah, that's a lot of precip under a marginal snow profile. But definitely snow for you and I.

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we might not hear from you until spring. Stock up and buy a wireless phone charger, take lots of non blurry pics, TIA

We already have a good 8-10" pack...some left from thanksgiving storm, then a few inches twice this week with zr/sleet in the pack from both storms. If this played out...man we would have one hell of a deep resilient snow pack.

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That loop de loop towards the BM is interesting

Indeed it redevolps over the BM and retrogrades back into NJ, at least that's how it appears on 24hr maps.

 

Edit: H5 loop is even more amazing between 72 and 168.   H5 center goes from VA to NJ then back to VA.

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This could be pretty big out here 25 miles west of ALB, but obviously a close brush. Probably ping for awhile in any event, but doesn't mean a lot of snow wont fall.

Yea this is increasingly looking like an elevation dependent event... even folks here in Albany will likely changeover or mix at some point given the very marginal 850-hPa temps. 

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This could be pretty big out here 25 miles west of ALB, but obviously a close brush. Probably ping for awhile in any event, but doesn't mean a lot of snow wont fall.

 

I'd be much more comfortable if I were up another 1000 ft in elevation... the evolution here is very reminiscent of the February 2010 cyclones that occluded and dumped an incredible amount of elevation snowfall in the Catskills and Adirondacks, but very little in the valley. Don't think sleet or freezing rain will be a significant concern with this event since the surface low will be vertically stacked, meaning little chance of a substantial cold layer to allow substantial sleet accumulation. Probably elevation dependent rain or snow and not much other frozen precip. 

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Yeah  46 inches here that time....  60" in Berne.

 

As per the Eurp, as that precip comes north on Tuesday it seems to dynamically cool the column and the intensity alone should help the valley get heavy snow. By then you might have good front end dump in any event.

 

It should be an interesting few days!

 

 

I'd be much more comfortable if I were up another 1000 ft in elevation... the evolution here is very reminiscent of the February 2010 cyclones that occluded and dumped an incredible amount of elevation snowfall in the Catskills and Adirondacks, but very little in the valley. Don't think sleet or freezing rain will be a significant concern with this event since the surface low will be vertically stacked, meaning little chance of a substantial cold layer to allow substantial sleet accumulation. Probably elevation dependent rain or snow and not much other frozen precip. 

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Well, the 00z models didn't boost my confidence for any area other than Rick's. 

 

Regardless of the outcome,, this would have been such a fun one to be part of--especially since the reason I'm not is a semi-annual company sales meeting.  With the EC  run, I wonder if I would ever make it home (slated to land in BDL at 1:00p.m. on Thursday afternoon).

 

27.8/21

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