ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS warm thermal bias is the boundary layer...not mid-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 North Conway and Bartlett look like a fantastic spot for this. Maybe I can get a room at attitash Gonna wait until tomorrow afternoon before booking my Cantori. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Considering gfs thermal profiles are usually warm, this is a weenie solution ain't it? It's an impressive solution, but it is not a "bomb" -- if by that we mean 'bombogenesis'. Someone said bomb a few ago... bombogen requires a deeper pressure change /24 hrs... This, as I described a while ago, is a midland surface response to an impressive elevated mechanical forcing. If there were better thermal gradients and steeper frontal slopes in the lower troposphere, then we'd have probably be seeing a bomb modeled. It doesn't necessarily matter to sensible weather.. .If the column ends up cold enough, there's going to be a ginormous pwat transport off the Atlantic and that person under said column could end up with a lot of snow. Or not... it should be a lot of water, whether in liq or frozone form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yea, I shouldn't use bomb. It's not a deepening cyclone. But this just sits and spins, I don't know what to call it. It's beautiful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS warm thermal bias is the boundary layer...not mid-level temps. The CCB portion in W CT and SE NY looks to be snow to me, IMO. Classic positioning of the closed H5 low. Too bad the GFS is probably correcting towards other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Its still a deepening cyclone, just not a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yes please. That's a good snowstorm for western New England, NNE, eastern NY. As an aside, those snow maps usually look a lot more like what you would guess than the weatherbell ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yea, I shouldn't use bomb. It's not a deepening cyclone. But this just sits and spins, I don't know what to call it. It's beautiful though. It's a washing machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Any chance at accumulating snows for Plymouth and Barnstable counties on Sunday night into Monday night timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 The CCB portion in W CT and SE NY looks to be snow to me, IMO. Classic positioning of the closed H5 low. Too bad the GFS is probably correcting towards other guidance. Yeah, it flips to a period of heavy snow there after rain as the ULL really deepens. Other guidance (even the Euro) hasn't exactly been steadfast...a lot of solutions are rain for SNE, but for some adjacent areas to the north and west they have been trendng colder. It's not an easy setup for guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Including a delicious Freudian slip (or was it intentional?) by typing "deviantly" rather than the more logical "defiantly". Seriously, when the board catches the spoor of elephants, they pay attention. Maybe the animals run away, maybe they charge, but at least it's interesting times. I hope you have a camera for that 3 foot pack on December 11th. Awesome post by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, it flips to a period of heavy snow there after rain as the ULL really deepens. Other guidance (even the Euro) hasn't exactly been steadfast...a lot of solutions are rain for SNE, but for some adjacent areas to the north and west they have been trendng colder. It's not an easy setup for guidance. That is true. It's quite convoluted. But most guidance "hooks" the surface low at a further south latitude, tainting the mid-levels much more significantly. The GFS has a wider hook which prevents WAA from overwhelming during the warm stages, and allows the low to occlude near Cape Cod instead of near Long Island like most guidance. I still feel like overall, the GFS is trending towards the foreign guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Here is a weenie panel during the backlash from the 18z GFS CAN BUFKIT profile. It has a total of 2.89" LE from the storm, almost all of which falls as snow. I really wish this run would verify but I remember the GFS overdoing the CCB in a storm last year. And of course, it is probably going to trend westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, it flips to a period of heavy snow there after rain as the ULL really deepens. Other guidance (even the Euro) hasn't exactly been steadfast...a lot of solutions are rain for SNE, but for some adjacent areas to the north and west they have been trendng colder. It's not an easy setup for guidance. What did the ECMWF ensembles look like? Or are they useless at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Definately not useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Almost a mini Fujiwara on GFS Pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 For this storm can we pls define CNE? Is it Brian's area or Worcester north? Would like to understand what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Definately not useless. I mean I figured we aren't close enough to the event to not use'em but I know there was a lot of talk yesterday about how the members with no storm were skewing the mean. Do you have any idea what they looked like today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 For this storm can we pls define CNE? Is it Brian's area or Worcester north? Would like to understand what to expect.I don't think Brian's area is ever defined as CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 For this storm can we pls define CNE? Is it Brian's area or Worcester north? Would like to understand what to expect. Could probably be described as both...maybe RT 2 north is CNE? But either way, you appear to be in NH. Even though I don't know exactly where Amherst is, given that you live in NH you fit in CNE. Or NNE if you just are talking states (ie ME, NH, VT as NNE; CT, RI, MA as SNE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I mean I figured we aren't close enough to the event to not use'em but I know there was a lot of talk yesterday about how the members with no storm were skewing the mean. Do you have any idea what they looked like today? I just know we are still 3 days out....then tack on another 3 days as it rotates. I think that's ens range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Could probably be described as both...maybe RT 2 north is CNE? But either way, you appear to be in NH. Even though I don't know exactly where Amherst is, given that you live in NH you fit in CNE. Or NNE if you just are talking states (ie ME, NH, VT as NNE; CT, RI, MA as SNE).Thanks. Amherst is in southern NH WNW of nashua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 BOX seems way early to sound so confident and to be drawing rain/snow lines etc on social media. Couple slight shifts on models as we get closer makes large differences.. From heavy rain to snow to potential ice problems. Maybe by Monday morning you can get confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 BOX seems way early to sound so confident and to be drawing rain/snow lines etc on social media. Couple slight shifts on models as we get closer makes large differences.. From heavy rain to snow to potential ice problems. Maybe by Monday morning you can get confident Yea. A wobble here or there makes a big difference, especially for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Wierd that, earlier today, Upton went with a euro/84hr nam blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Would be nice if we could trust the GFS. It would but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 BOX seems way early to sound so confident and to be drawing rain/snow lines etc on social media. Couple slight shifts on models as we get closer makes large differences.. From heavy rain to snow to potential ice problems. Maybe by Monday morning you can get confident I dont think ice is going to be a big deal anywhere...maybe for a relatively short time on the front end...but this will mostly be just rain vs snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah its white or wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I dont think ice is going to be a big deal anywhere...maybe for a relatively short time on the front end...but this will mostly be just rain vs snowLow level cold won't go anywhere fast. It's not like everyone is going to soar up into the 40's. Can see a lot of 32-34 readings just inland.. And if flow ends up a bit more NNE than ENE ,, we'll be able to funnel in some of that drier air . Just something to monitor for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Low level cold won't go anywhere fast. It's not like everyone is going to soar up into the 40's. Can see a lot of 32-34 readings just inland.. And if flow ends up a bit more NNE than ENE ,, we'll be able to funnel in some of that drier air . Just something to monitor for now How are you getting NNE with a low below the New York bight and a high sliding east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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