Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Tip following his usual track.. When all hope is lost and its meh , he posts things look great and how it's gonna bang. When things look highly anomolous and record breaking he downplays to meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Speaking of salvaging something... the good ol' 15z NMM would be interesting for SNE Almost 1" of QPF in 3-hours at ORH in a snow column, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 You do realize everyone has been talking about CNE and NNE for wintery precip for like the past two days right? I don't think anyone is trying to salvage anything...all the posts seem fairly reasonable for the areas that have been highlighted for greatest chance of wintery impact. I'm not naming any names... 'sides, I said I was pokin' the hornet's nest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah Tip....there is still a slight chance that much of interior SNE could do very well...if you want more dreaming eye candy in central MA...check this one out: Obviously these types of solutions are on the edge of the envelope...NNE/CNE elevated afreas are in the much more favorable spot. SNE's best shot at accumulating snow appears to be the backlsh thta occurs from the H5 low deepening SE of SNE after the storm occludes. But I still wouldn't rule out some front end fun for the interior spots of SNE that goes on a bit longer than currently progged....those Quebec highs (even retreating) can sometimes be a bit under modeled. The trend has also been subtle in delaying the retreat a bit...holding firm just a shade longer. The spread in model solutions is still high so the forecast confidence in this time frame is below average...high confidence of a storm...low confidence of any details pertaining to sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Tip following his usual track.. When all hope is lost and its meh , he posts things look great and how it's gonna bang. When things look highly anomolous and record breaking he downplays to meh Kevin is following his usual track of demonstrating 3rd grade reading comprehension skills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah Tip....there is still a slight chance that much of interior SNE could do very well...if you want more dreaming eye candy in central MA...check this one out: Obviously these types of solutions are on the edge of the envelope...NNE/CNE elevated afreas are in the much more favorable spot. SNE's best shot at accumulating snow appears to be the backlsh thta occurs from the H5 low deepening SE of SNE after the storm occludes. But I still wouldn't rule out some front end fun for the interior spots of SNE that goes on a bit longer than currently progged....those Quebec highs (even retreating) can sometimes be a bit under modeled. The trend has also but subtle in delaying the retreat a bit...holding firm just a shade longer. The spread in model solutions is still high so the forecast confidence in this time frame is below average...high confidence of a storm...low confidence of any details pertaining to sensible wx. Course, we still have the unfortunate issue of this being D4/5 ... Not you per se, but folks may be vesting too deeply into this thing as a right off ... or on... I mean, I'm just teasing a little, and that should be obvious (Steve! WTF are you talking to? come on man, lighten up). Anyway, obviously there are those that are guilty but back to the what matters. I think there is plenty of time for this to evolve into a something different. Or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Just spent awhile catching up and reading... Sounds like a classic interior elevation storm and right into the lower elevations of those far nw enough. Of course we could see a bump south and east with the low, but the scorch aloft really makes me really negative for sne outside of the berks. I need to find an excuse to go to VT lol. We probably end up with a front end thump in the end in the very least. I might end up taking a road trip. A slow moving fronto dumpage with a stacked low = tasty and worth traveling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Wow. Great posts folks. Been away lately...... and I get back to porn for some peeps in NE. This is going to be a fun one to track. Heck, it already is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think Tip was kidding in his first paragaph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Holy sh it the Berks get crushed on the NAM, 2.5 all snow 4 plus rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z GFS is intriguing...pretty close in parts of SNE to being a monster...good for CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Who cares about exact details, gfs is a bomb. I love lots of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z GFS is intriguing...pretty close in parts of SNE to being a monster...good for CNE/NNE I actually think that depiction verbatim gives me a few inches on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Forecast highs in the mid 40's on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What I meant was, what can go wrong here to prevent a monster solution on future runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z GFS really clobbers VT the Dacks and the Berks. 36 hr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Would be nice if we could trust the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Would be nice if we could trust the GFS. How come it doesn't move, do we have blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 How come it doesn't move, do we have blocking? It's just cutoff from the jet with a bootleg area of higher heights above the cutoff. That causes it to spin in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Would be nice if we could trust the GFS.We would kill for that solution.. But it's still correcting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think Tip was kidding in his first paragaph. Including a delicious Freudian slip (or was it intentional?) by typing "deviantly" rather than the more logical "defiantly". Seriously, when the board catches the spoor of elephants, they pay attention. Maybe the animals run away, maybe they charge, but at least it's interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Including a delicious Freudian slip (or was it intentional?) by typing "deviantly" rather than the more logical "defiantly". Seriously, when the board catches the spoor of elephants, they pay attention. Maybe the animals run away, maybe they charge, but at least it's interesting times. This is sig worthy....good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Including a delicious Freudian slip (or was it intentional?) by typing "deviantly" rather than the more logical "defiantly". Seriously, when the board catches the spoor of elephants, they pay attention. Maybe the animals run away, maybe they charge, but at least it's interesting times. I think I just got smarter. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Interesting changes on this 18z GFS run... Less emphasis on the lead short wave in the trough, and more on the N stream diving in, means closure happens further S-E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 We would kill for that solution.. But it's still correcting west You wouldn;t kill for that...that would give you a lot of rain while not far NW gets plastured...we really want that thing about 1-2C colder. It could correct colder if it kept that track...but we really need to be working with a better airmass...such as 24-36 hours fresher than it is...like some of the original depictions. That said, can't rule out some accumulating backside snows if that strong ULL passes underneath us and just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 You wouldn;t kill for that...that would give you a lot of rain while not far NW gets plastured...we really want that thing about 1-2C colder. It could correct colder if it kept that track...but we really need to be working with a better airmass...such as 24-36 hours fresher than it is...like some of the original depictions. That said, can't rule out some accumulating backside snows if that strong ULL passes underneath us and just to the east. Considering gfs thermal profiles are usually warm, this is a weenie solution ain't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 You wouldn;t kill for that...that would give you a lot of rain while not far NW gets plastured...we really want that thing about 1-2C colder. It could correct colder if it kept that track...but we really need to be working with a better airmass...such as 24-36 hours fresher than it is...like some of the original depictions. That said, can't rule out some accumulating backside snows if that strong ULL passes underneath us and just to the east. Well I was assuming the Gfs was in its usual la la land of warm thermal profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 You wouldn;t kill for that...that would give you a lot of rain while not far NW gets plastured...we really want that thing about 1-2C colder. It could correct colder if it kept that track...but we really need to be working with a better airmass...such as 24-36 hours fresher than it is...like some of the original depictions. That said, can't rule out some accumulating backside snows if that strong ULL passes underneath us and just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 North Conway and Bartlett look like a fantastic spot for this. Maybe I can get a room at attitash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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