Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Still gotta be wary of an icing zone somewhere in Sne or CNE..Esp with any ticks east. Mid and upper levels may go mild ,but that low level cold is gonna be tough..Just gonna have to see where that zone sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Still gotta be wary of an icing zone somewhere in Sne or CNE..Esp with any ticks east. Mid and upper levels may go mild ,but that low level cold is gonna be tough..Just gonna have to see where that zone sets up I'd be more wary of a rain situation in SNE at this point in time. 32.3/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Still gotta be wary of an icing zone somewhere in Sne or CNE..Esp with any ticks east. Mid and upper levels may go mild ,but that low level cold is gonna be tough..Just gonna have to see where that zone sets upI could see that with this solutionIn 12 hours another wacky possibility might show This is fun to watch. I would love to watch a loop like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I could see that with this solution In 12 hours another wacky possibility might show This is fun to watch. I would love to watch a loop like that The chances don't seem good that it moves over NYC and sits for 12 hours. Maybe like the Eastern tip of Li or something seems more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 PF Scott how did Stowe do 12-30.31 2000, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I would take the EPS mean as verification. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Pretty much a Rainer for this area. Congrats up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The more I look at this thing the more it almost resembles one of those cut-offs you get in west Atlantic/EC in early April, that look pretty awesome aloft but has a relatively weak surface appeal. It cuts and spins and the surface pressure pattern opens up, even as the 500mb surface drops to 534dm in the mean. Usually the surface reflection deepens along with the mid level height falls (lowering pressure..).. But here, after the initial development it just sort of goes blahhh There something missing here that's ...for lack of better word, disconnecting the mid level mechanics from the lower troposphere, and the more I look at it, I believe the attenuating horizontal thickness gradient is the problem; much like what takes place in spring. Deep aloft, but without stronger frontal slopes for focusing lift of restoring jets and all that jazz ... the attending cyclone is midland at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 PF Scott how did Stowe do 12-30.31 2000, I'll have to look back at some of the ski archives but I think I remember reading about a foot in that one? I'll get back to ya though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 1004 seems to be the lowest. Long duration of some form of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Eps is how you get backlash on the coast, man what a crush job for the usual suspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 EPS also doesn't look too loopy More jiggly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 1004 seems to be the lowest. Long duration of some form of precip3-4 inches worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Still a few decent members thrown in there for northern ct and eastern and central interior mass on the EPS stamps but definitely few and far between. Definitely more spread on the Berkshires. Interior NE PA, Eastern and Central NY and most of interior CNE and NNE look pretty good although Southeastern areas are definitely living on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 3-4 inches worthYeah. Copious precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It is Dec 2000-like only with warmer temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I would take the EPS mean as verification. Thanks. I think I could live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 BTV's long term AFD looks reasonable...can't get into details at this point. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 329 PM EST SATURDAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDSTO THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONPOISED TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXTWEEK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH BOTH THETRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND EXACTLY WHERE THE 500/700MBCIRCULATIONS CLOSE OFF ALL PLAYING A LARGE ROLE INTO THE AMOUNTAND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE`LL SEE. THE GFS REMAINS THE COLDER OFBOTH SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN GEM WHICHWOULD OFFER A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS LATETUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A WARMNOSE AT 850MB DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIP MORELIKELY. TO BE HONEST...NOT GOING TO RELY ON EITHER SOLUTION ATTHIS POINT AND TAKE A GENERAL BLEND. HOPEFULLY WE CAN IRON OUT THEDETAILS WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TOMORROW.BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BOTH SOLUTIONS OFFER SNOW AS THE PREDOMINATEPRECIP TYPE WHICH LINGERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A STRONG BLOCK HIGHUPSTREAM...BUT AGAIN DIFFERENCE THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPERLEVEL FEATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH.BOTTOM LINE...THERE WILL BE A STORM. WHERE...WHEN...WHAT FALLS FROMTHE SKY? STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Bigger question is what's the pressure differential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What was that storm like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It is Dec 2000-like only with warmer temps aloft.yea that's what sucks for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm gonna go ahead a deviantly poke the hornets nest by asking why you guys probing with obsessive compulsion to find any possible reason to salvage a scenario you can't accept is a down-the-drainer ah hem .. ..have you not dug up the JMA!? AAHAHHA. j/k... seriously the recent model run of that thing is dream. It's got like 20-30" of snow implied from NW CT to SE NH. It starts out at 72 hours with the 0C line at 850 S of LI. At 96 hours, that isotherm has moved NW to about HFD to BOS... at 120 hours, it's collapse all the way down to the CC Canal. While all that is happening, the 500, 700, and 850 mb centers all deepen and move nearly collocated along a path from near the Del Marva to just SE of the Cape! Utterly ... perfect. No other words for that solution. Total QPF looks like ..I dunno. 2.5" of liq equiv or more, across the pan of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What was that storm like?we had like 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Tip wtf are you talking to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm gonna go ahead a deviantly poke the hornets nest by asking why you guys probing with obsessive compulsion to find any possible reason to salvage a scenario you can't accept is a down-the-drainer ah hem .. ..have you not dug up the JMA!? AAHAHHA. j/k... seriously the model run of that thing is dream. It's got like 20-30" of snow implied from NW CT to SE NH. It starts out at 72 hours with the 0C line at 850 S of LI. At 96 hours, that isotherm has moved NW to about HFD to BOS... at 120 hours, it's collapse all the way down to the CC Canal. While all that is happening, the 500, 700, and 850 mb centers all deepen and move nearly collocated along a path from near the Del Marva to just SE of the Cape! Utterly ... perfect. No other words for that solution. Total QPF looks like ..I dunno. 2.5" of liq equiv or more, across the pan of SNE. JMA sniffed the storm itself out pretty early. Sounds like a pipe dream now but salivating while reading that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Bigger question is what's the pressure differentialDecent winds at Phil's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm gonna go ahead a deviantly poke the hornets nest by asking why you guys probing with obsessive compulsion to find any possible reason to salvage a scenario you can't accept is a down-the-drainer You do realize everyone has been talking about CNE and NNE for wintery precip for like the past two days right? I don't think anyone is trying to salvage anything...all the posts seem fairly reasonable for the areas that have been highlighted for greatest chance of wintery impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 we had like 8-10So if it's a warmer version at mid levels, but low levels are locked cold.... Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 1004 seems to be the lowest. Long duration of some form of precip Tell me about it. What a kick in the nuts would it be if not only do I miss the storm but have my 1:00p.m. flight into BDL get canceled on Thursday. 32.0/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Whatever happened to BIrving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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