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Dec 9-10 storm threat


ORH_wxman

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Some early spiking of the football in here today.

Nothing is spiked.

I have 9" of snow thus far through December 6th, and have managed around normal temp departures and a bit of snow during a period that was perceived as unfavorable, while long range models turn more favorable, as expected.

That is pretty much all you can ask for thus far...short of a guarantee that the favorable regime will produce?

When do you ever have that...

There is plenty of reason for optimism; fact, not opinion.

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Well that is a whacked out Euro run with the refiring of the conveyor and almost a whole new storm developing on the east side of the ULL...you can get some crazy things happeneing when you deepen a closed 5H low that far south.

 

We will definitely have to watch this...if we trends this a tick colder...it could be a pretty potent front ender too..perhaps down to N ORH county, and CNE for sure.

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Remember the old runs from several days ago that has the second low rounding the trough and affecting further east. Sort of a rebirth of that idea in a way.

Well that is a whacked out Euro run with the refiring of the conveyor and almost a whole new storm developing on the east side of the ULL...you can get some crazy things happeneing when you deepen a closed 5H low that far south.

 

We will definitely have to watch this...if we trends this a tick colder...it could be a pretty potent front ender too..perhaps down to N ORH county, and CNE for sure.

 

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Just think of that evolution with a more easterly track like the GFS/GGEM...would open this up to a lot more folks in CNE and even western SNE.

 

It certainly would. I still think models are underestimating the cold air from 850 on down, especially in NNE where those temps get banked against the terrain.

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Just think of that evolution with a more easterly track like the GFS/GGEM...would open this up to a lot more folks in CNE and even western SNE.

 

Yeah it would...but there's no obvious reason it will go east. It's probably coin flipping at least the angle I'm looking at it. Hopefully it ends up colder/east.

 

The CAD on this run was better on the front side, the high held on a bit longer. So if that is a trend than can keep up and the upper levels give us just a little bit of cooperation, then there could be a lot more snow further south.

 

But even as it is on the Euro, there's probaly a few inches on the backlash right down into SNE.

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