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Dec 9-10 storm threat

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Not sure whether to believe it yet. The other models have been awfully consistent with the coast hugging track.  A GFS and Euro compromise would make me very happy.

 

Yeah model solution vs outcome at this stage is yet to be seen. Just stating what it shows. Frankly, the GFS track makes sense to me, at least I don't see any glaring issues.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I was confused by this at first. 12/10/1997 was actually my biggest snowfall that winter. I think I remember now that Eastern Mass may have missed out on that one.

 

 

We had zero snow in ORH from that...it was a fluke storm south of us.

 

 

Our first big snow outside of November was 12/23/97

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

We had zero snow in ORH from that...it was a fluke storm south of us.

 

 

Our first big snow outside of November was 12/23/97

One of the all time greats in some ways. Nowcast. Boston flipped to snow in the morning and ripped all day. One local tv met came on and said won't amount to anything. I think I got 8-9 inches.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

The weatherbell maps adhere to a strict 10-1 ratio so you aren't getting inflated #'s because of ratios. In the max snow areas where p type issues are not a factor they shouldn't be inflated. But they over state snow vs other forms of frozen and freezing precip in marginal areas.

 

I have been noticing lately that when the low level temps are mild they do a reasonable job showing where the valleys will see less snowfall. But when some temps are above 0C at say the 700-850 level, they seem to assume its all snow anyway.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Those that allow outcomes in weather to ruin their day need to emotionally prepare themselves for a cold rain/coastal; it's not a certainly, it's a possibility that warrants as much coverage but has not been getting much. Every run I have seen since 00z, of any run, drives a sauna at 850 clear to the Berkshires.  Analyzing much snow in SNE right now ...seems like a filtered perspective.  May start out as snow, and it certainly would well NW.  But I can't sign off on much beyond an initial tease.  At least for now.. 

 

The GFS run (this 12z) is really, really ugly for "phasing".  It's got ...I think I saw four distinct jet maxes vying for proxy in the quasi-closing low, not to mention ... a closing structure that is climatologically much too far N for typical fan fair around here.  Combining all that with the fact that lead thermodynamic gradients are actually weakening, not steepening, prior to the trough and cylogenesis mechanics arriving to the 80W, ...it's amazing the GFS develops a SFC low as much as it does.

 

Having said all that, I'm just trying to completely sans any subjective analysis here, so don't flame me :)  On a more positive note (to be fair) dynamics could also become more impressive if the GFS - or any other run that shares in it's dischord aloft - is/are wrong about the sync.  One thing I am noticing that is interesting about these recent GFS runs that have inched toward a more Euro position and so forth ... is that as the GFS has been inching, it has also been attenuating the amount of N-stream subsuming (5 dollar word for less N-stream diving into the backside to take control).  In a storm system that lacks and or features less winter favorite moderation of lead-side thickness', that sting jet is important, because it usually inserts cold thickness plume and then any in situ mechanics get that dynamical perk -- things start flipping into a blue bomb. There is "some" of that hinted, more or less depending on model of choice, but the point being ... it's is a little less clear just how much N-stream is going to dive out of the central Canadian region, thru the Lake to get involved...  For those who are vested in interesting Meteorology, its a very interesting storm one way or the other... For those who care less when it doesn't snow?  Heh, your event has a lot of work to do..

 

One thing from a field interest point of view. This is an Archembault event.  I mentioned this last week. There has been a highly coherent signal at CDC and CPC from the GEFs, every member clustered on a total rise in the PNA exceeding 2.5 SD. It is no shock that nearing the apex of that rise, we have an eastern event tracking.  

 

Beyond this, it's really early  ... The tele's have been sort of N/S for that past week wrt to the deeper extended range, but there is now a subtle suggestion (again, it's early...give it time) for a relaxing positive NAO, and the EPO positive has also been muted by a little. The AO mean is falling below 0 SD, but there is a lot of spread.  Meanwhile, the PNA falls off the extreme positive but stays above 0, and the MJO is schedule, albeit weakening into the 6-1 side of the party.  Should these signals brighten, ideas on a warm December become less confident.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

good upslope might be your biggest normally understated post ever

 

lol yeah I'm looking at it more in depth and that would be absolutely obscene.

 

Huge upslope signal with NW winds and lots of cyclonic moisture.  These are 24 hour totals, so just add them up.  Literally 3 days of snowfall on that OP run. 

 

12z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday

 

 

12z Wednesday through 12z Thursday

 

 

12z Thursday through 12z Friday

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Those that allow outcomes in weather to ruin their day need to emotionally prepare themselves for a cold rain/coastal; it's not a certainly, it's a possibility that warrants as much coverage but has not been getting much. Every run I have seen since 00z, of any run, drives a sauna at 850 clear to the Berkshires.  Analyzing much snow in SNE right now ...seems like a filtered perspective.  May start out as snow, and it certainly would well NW.  But I can't sign off on much beyond an initial tease.  At least for now.. 

 

The GFS run (this 12z) is really, really ugly for "phasing".  It's got ...I think I saw four distinct jet maxes vying for proxy in the quasi-closing low, not to mention ... a closing structure that is climatologically much too far N for typical fan fair around here.  Combining all that with the fact that lead thermodynamic gradients are actually weakening, not steepening, prior to the trough and cylogenesis mechanics arriving to the 80W, ...it's amazing the GFS develops a SFC low as much as it does.

 

Having said all that, I'm just trying to completely sans any subjective analysis here, so don't flame me :)  On a more positive note (to be fair) dynamics could also become more impressive if the GFS - or any other run that shares in it's dischord aloft - is/are wrong about the sync.  One thing I am noticing that is interesting about these recent GFS runs that have inched toward a more Euro position and so forth ... is that as the GFS has been inching, it has also been attenuating the amount of N-stream subsuming (5 dollar word for less N-stream diving into the backside to take control).  In a storm system that lacks and or features less winter favorite moderation of lead-side thickness', that sting jet is important, because it usually inserts cold thickness plume and then any in situ mechanics get that dynamical perk -- things start flipping into a blue bomb. There is "some" of that hinted, more or less depending on model of choice, but the point being ... it's is a little less clear just how much N-stream is going to dive out of the central Canadian region, thru the Lake to get involved...  For those who are vested in interesting Meteorology, its a very interesting storm one way or the other... For those who care less when it doesn't snow?  Heh, your event has a lot of work to do..

 

One thing from a field interest point of view. This is an Archembault event.  I mentioned this last week. There has been a highly coherent signal at CDC and CPC from the GEFs, every member clustered on a total rise in the PNA exceeding 2.5 SD. It is no shock that nearing the apex of that rise, we have an eastern event tracking.  

 

Beyond this, it's really early  ... The tele's have been sort of N/S for that past week wrt to the deeper extended range, but there is now a subtle suggestion (again, it's early...give it time) for a relaxing positive NAO, and the EPO positive has also been muted by a little. The AO mean is falling below 0 SD, but there is a lot of spread.  Meanwhile, the PNA falls off the extreme positive but stays above 0, and the MJO is schedule, albeit weakening into the 6-1 side of the party.  Should these signals brighten, ideas on a warm December become less confident.

All we have said since about Thursday is that the cp of sne has zero chance.

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