Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 NAM looks like a nasty commute Tues morning near and NW of BOS. What about everyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What about everyone else? Perhaps you too. It's sort of weenie overrunning of shallow arctic air as winds aloft turn ESE. After perhaps a little snow, it turns into a snizzle/FZDZ deal it seems. Makes sense to this guy. That airmass is no bullsh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm also on terminals which is why I'm posting a lot here..lol. Just looking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 NAM looks like a nasty commute Tues morning near and NW of BOS. Yeah...I could see BOS mostly wet, but as you move north - a town like Andover, for example - could have an inch or two before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 I just can't find any ounce of me that can find any truth to that. All those snowstorms and cold outbreaks of past Dec weren't supposed to happen because of climo? Nah How many Decembers had good snow through 12/15...lets go through the list for ORH which if anything, is slightly snowier than you: 2013: good snow 2012: Nadda 2011: torch/nadda 2010: Nadda 2009: Good snow 2008: Nadda (12/19 was the first good snow) 2007: Good snow 2006: torch nada 2005: Great snow 2004: Nadda 2003: great snow 2002: great snow 2001: One moderate event but a torch 2000: Nadda 1999: Torch/Nadda 1998: Torch/Nadda 1997: Nadda 1996: Great snow 1995: Great snow 1994: Torch/nadda 1993: torch/nadda 8 out of 21 early Decembers at 1,000 foot ORH to your north had good snowy early Decembers. Keep going back further and the same pattern exists. Case closed...let the jury deliberate. Climo can be a b**ch sometimes. Now back on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah I was reading the BTV discussion and lots of mention of a turn to rain, etc. Personally I don't see it, though models try to warm like the 925 level and below for awhile. Looking at past analogs I think you'd be hard pressed to find many lows like this on Dec. 10th with a track from like western LI to (ultimately) Maine Coast that rained there. crushed according to the Euro, I mean crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah...I could see BOS mostly wet, but as you move north - a town like Andover, for example - could have an inch or two before the changeover. Yeah as far as maybe some slick spots and a little snow, Monday late day and evening could do that. Not that I let the NAM sway me, but the setup does support it. Despite this being shallow, there is support for some precip..albeit light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Perhaps you too. It's sort of weenie overrunning of shallow arctic air as winds aloft turn ESE. After perhaps a little snow, it turns into a snizzle/FZDZ deal it seems. Makes sense to this guy. That airmass is no bullsh*t.figure on a overrunning snow until the east flow at all levels cranks up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 figure on a overrunning snow until the east flow at all levels cranks up? Well here is why it probably would only be light. Wicked dry column above 950. However with temps so cold, crappy flakes can come about from that..also sea salt boosting temps for snow flake production. A little boost from the CF too. Usually these setups are not much QPF producers, but can make for some slippery times when it becomes FZDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I just can't find any ounce of me that can find any truth to that. All those snowstorms and cold outbreaks of past Dec weren't supposed to happen because of climo? Nah For once, I'M going to be the voice of Non-Snow reason. Kevin - Good snow doesn't Happen until AFTER Christmas most of the time. INCLUDING 2002-2003 And 2004-2005. So Calm Down. Callllm Down. Go re-read Rays Winter Outlook. I'm going to tag Kevin with the new weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 What about everyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well maybe I'm on my own in those beliefs..but I'll certainly go to the grave with them..It's always been my thought that people associate cold and snow with DJF..and that's usually the best 3 month period of winter..Some years you get wintry Novembers and occasionally a March A lot farther north so maybe not relevant, but for Dec. 1-14 my avg daily snowfall is 0.47" (6.52" total) while for 15-31 it's 0.78" (13.21" total), almost 70% higher. 12/15 is the only day here when I've recorded 2 separate 10"+ events, thus the cherrypick. However, the early period also includes the 24" from 12/6-7/2003. Bottom line: Big snowfall can come any time in Dec, but historically it's considerably more likely 15th and beyond. Latest GFS for next week reminds me of what it looked like on about 2/22/2010 (for my area only), and that mighty mess gave us mashed potato glops alternating with catspaw-loaded 34F rain, leaving a 7-8" layer of almost immovable whitish "mud". No thanks. (Though I haven't a choice, of course.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z GFS looks like its going to be colder and low off the coast slightly east of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Bringing up some serious juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This is going to be a good run,1000mb over ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Man even HubbDave would get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 SR destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Foothills and mountains destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Stalls further north in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Steve has the greatest inventory of wx bookmarks of anyone I know. Much cooler today than forecasted with temps still drifting down. I enjoy a cold rain in early December but 2 weeks from now I'd be annoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS is happier but these run to run movements are ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Maine gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Steve has the greatest inventory of wx bookmarks of anyone I know. Much cooler today than forecasted with temps still drifting down. I enjoy a cold rain in early December but 2 weeks from now I'd be annoyed. Warm front fail. A few weeks from now, and it would be a sneaky icy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Foothills and mountains destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS is close to a paste bomb for ORH. Real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS is close to a paste bomb for ORH. Real close. I'd rather the EURO verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'd rather the EURO verify. Well typically that works wrt to gfs vs euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'd rather the EURO verify. In fact, take into account it's silly warm bias below 850 and it probably is. Close to Kevin, too. Of course, just stating the output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Well, in 6 hours it will do something equally as silly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS would be a huge thump on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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