Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Is this similar to Feb 1983? I remember a huge high over Ontario and Quebec. The big warm-up started the next morning. In SWCT the storm started in the evening...that day was in the teens with a strong NE wind. Of course the syncopy between the storm and the high was better in 83, I think it was an Archambault with a decaying -nao. That was a Miller A which crushed the entire East coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Actually this area had an inch or less. LOL But I got 11" where I lived in in the mid HV. That was a Miller A which crushed the entire East coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 i hope you are jokingOf course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 That was a Miller A which crushed the entire East coast Except NNE. Same for 12/92, lots of wind, little/no snow, while 125 miles SW folks were buried. Not Buffalo-LES sharp cutoff, but still pretty abrupt. But neither 83 nor 92 had been forecast to impact NNE, and so far this one is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Verifications scores are one thing but when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis, I know what model to rely more on. And it begins with E not G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Last winter the Euro was not stellar Its like a good hitter in BB going thru a slump, But when he comes out of it, Its the same good hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 1983 1"or less in ALB, 6" 25 miles south, 12" 45 miles south, 20" 90 miles south.. ... That kind of cutoff. Aligned WSW to ENE. Except NNE. Same for 12/92, lots of wind, little/no snow, while 125 miles SW folks were buried. Not Buffalo-LES sharp cutoff, but still pretty abrupt. But neither 83 nor 92 had been forecast to impact NNE, and so far this one is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think questions still remain with the overall involvement of the arctic jet stream, which remains bottled up over Canada. The GFS and most models still want to phase the northern stream energy with the arctic jet energy that dives out of central Canada within the domain of the Polar Vortex, not associated with the Polar Vortex. As well all know there is energy that rides around the various jet streams within the overall North American flow. One is the Sub-tropical jet which infuses the moisture and energy from the Gulf of Mexico and Southwestern Atlantic Ocean into the overall system. Second we have the northern stream which carries with it the overall polar/pacific energy which is the overall trough that ends up in the end driving through the system while the arctic jet energy that gets involved dives into the trough with the very cold air in the mid levels turning the initial rain event into a backside snow event which could pile up if given the right setup ie: the February 8/9th 2013 blizzard where Cape Cod got roughly 6-12" of snow after the initial changeover to rain in the middle of the storm. I'm not saying this will be anywhere close to the magnitude of that blizzard, but the backside snows could be similar in nature. Therefore we need to see the polar and arctic jet energies phase further southwest over the OH Valley, rather than over LK Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think questions still remain with the overall involvement of the arctic jet stream, which remains bottled up over Canada. The GFS and most models still want to phase the northern stream energy with the arctic jet energy that dives out of central Canada within the domain of the Polar Vortex, not associated with the Polar Vortex. As well all know there is energy that rides around the various jet streams within the overall North American flow. One is the Sub-tropical jet which infuses the moisture and energy from the Gulf of Mexico and Southwestern Atlantic Ocean into the overall system. Second we have the northern stream which carries with it the overall polar/pacific energy which is the overall trough that ends up in the end driving through the system while the arctic jet energy that gets involved dives into the trough with the very cold air in the mid levels turning the initial rain event into a backside snow event which could pile up if given the right setup ie: the February 8/9th 2013 blizzard where Cape Cod got roughly 6-12" of snow after the initial changeover to rain in the middle of the storm. I'm not saying this will be anywhere close to the magnitude of that blizzard, but the backside snows could be similar in nature. Therefore we need to see the polar and arctic jet energies phase further southwest over the OH Valley, rather than over LK Ontario. Not at all. There was far more moisture on the backside of the blizzard which doesn't make these comparable. The vorticity was far more impressive as well during the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Brett loves bananas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Not at all. The blizzard and this aren't even comparable. I'm not predicting 6-12" for the area, I'm just saying that is what the models are potentially showing especially if they are too far west with the surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 0z GFS looks like its going to dig the the northern stream s/w further south then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Northern stream shortwave is rotating west of WA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 0z GFS looks like its going to dig the the northern stream s/w further south then 18z I would seem to agree with you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I'm not predicting 6-12" for the area, I'm just saying that is what the models are potentially showing especially if they are too far west with the surface low track. I didn't say you were calling 6-12 b/c we both know that won't happen but it's still apples to oranges imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I didn't say you were calling 6-12 b/c we both know that won't happen but it's still apples to oranges imo. Not if the models were further east with the track of the surface low, it would be a colder solution, I don't think the coastal plain will escape without some rainfall, but maybe it could be a lot less than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Not if the models were further east with the track of the surface low, it would be a colder solution, I don't think the coastal plain will escape without some rainfall, but maybe it could be a lot less than currently modeled. Yeah...maybe you'll dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z GFS will have the northern stream shortwave sampled enough to know its strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah...maybe you'll dryslot. Yeah maybe that's a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah...maybe you'll dryslot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Congrats PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z GFS digs the shortwave even further south than the 18z GFS over OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 PF will be doing keg stands at the picnic table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 0z GFS at 90h looks like it is at the Benchmark or just inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 00z GFS digs the shortwave even further south than the 18z GFS over OH Valley. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 GFS is a bomb, not sure about winds at 925 or 850mb, but it seems like a warm track still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 So we get a BM to GOM run on the GFS and it's primarily rain from Dendrite SSE, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Canadian lost the SNE front end idea from 12z, still much quicker though with light precip up to CNH at hour 78. Looks like it'll be another warm hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Th GFS is likely still trending toward the better models ....so probably not much point in analyzing the minutia of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Congrats Whiteface on the GGEM with 2', rest of NNE does well as well. Will post maps when ones I can post are out if I'm still up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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