Dec 9-10 storm threat

[dryslot]

These Op runs and Ensembles to some degree have really been muting the warmth over the last couple days in the long term

[powderfreak]

I'm forced to wonder ... would these "GFS finally gets a clue..." posts ever have been written "Euro finally gets a clue" if the Euro caved toward the GFS?

 

Yes.  You know we are a very opinionated bunch.  If the Euro was sucking hard lately, and had usually gotten its arse handed to it over the last X number of years, we would of course post "the Euro finally gets a clue".  The problem is the roles are reversed. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yes.  You know we are a very opinionated bunch.  If the Euro was sucking hard lately, and had usually gotten its arse handed to it over the last X number of years, we would of course post "the Euro finally gets a clue".  The problem is the roles are reversed. 

 

Maybe ... no there's clearly a tendency to say it toward the model with the most snow.  Sorry, it comes across that way...

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yes. You know we are a very opinionated bunch. If the Euro was sucking hard lately, and had usually gotten its arse handed to it over the last X number of years, we would of course post "the Euro finally gets a clue". The problem is the roles are reversed.

Last winter the Euro was not stellar

[Typhoon Tip]

Well after going over the mass fields leading to 1992 and then comparing to what's modeled now I can comfortably say there is less than 50% analog.  

 

Wondering where that was drubbed up from.  1992 was an intermediate stream S/W that cut off over the Va Capes, arriving there aloft from due west. Meanwhile, as Will mentioned ... lead buckling/confluence over the Maritimes cause blocking high surface and aloft N of Maine. This supplied (eventually, a cold source, but also allowed the time the dynamics needed to cool the column down.  

 

Well prior to that though, in this case the S/W is actually a polar/arctic one that comes careening down to subsume a Pac S/W ... Believe it or not, that type of evolution is actually more akin to Feb 1978; though there are large variances in details.  That particular act of N stream taking over and fusing into a south moving interloper wave is what took place in 1978.

[Blizz]

Maybe ... no there's clearly a tendency to say it toward the model with the most snow.  Sorry, it comes across that way...

 

The Euro has schooled the GFS for all significant events in the east so far this season. November 1st - Now.

[JC-CT]

I'm forced to wonder ... would these "GFS finally gets a clue..." posts ever have been written "Euro finally gets a clue" if the Euro caved toward the GFS?

Maybe ... no there's clearly a tendency to say it toward the model with the most snow. Sorry, it comes across that way...

See my last post in the banter thread for your answer.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Well after going over the mass fields leading to 1992 and then comparing to what's modeled now I can comfortably say there is less than 50% analog.

Wondering where that was drubbed up from. 1992 was an intermediate stream S/W that cut off over the Va Capes, arriving there aloft from due west. Meanwhile, as Will mentioned ... lead buckling/confluence over the Maritimes cause blocking high surface and aloft N of Maine. This supplied (eventually, a cold source, but also allowed the time the dynamics needed to cool the column down.

Well prior to that though, in this case the S/W is actually a polar/arctic one that comes careening down to subsume a Pac S/W ... Believe it or not, that type of evolution is actually more akin to Feb 1978; though there are large variances in details. That particular act of N stream taking over and fusing into a south moving interloper wave is what took place in 1978.[/quote

Good info. A triple phase and loop about 200 miles further east than the Euro would be beautiful. Even after Nemo and all the other Superstorms we have seen in the last 2 decades, my Dad who lived in Central Mass at the timealways goes back to 78. I wish I could remember it I was still in my mothers womb at the time about a 1 month old fetus at the time.

[Whineminster]

That's pretty much what happened in 92. I still remember roaring winds in Vernon and when it would be heavy it would snow..and when it lightened up it went to rain or a mix. That was the storm where i told myself I would live in the "hills" when life allowed

Ha - that's funny, that's one of the reason I ended up in the hills---I was tired of always seeing on the news "north Worcester hills getting slammed"....."eastern MA...depressing rain"....

[Typhoon Tip]

Well after going over the mass fields leading to 1992 and then comparing to what's modeled now I can comfortably say there is less than 50% analog.

Wondering where that was drubbed up from. 1992 was an intermediate stream S/W that cut off over the Va Capes, arriving there aloft from due west. Meanwhile, as Will mentioned ... lead buckling/confluence over the Maritimes cause blocking high surface and aloft N of Maine. This supplied (eventually, a cold source, but also allowed the time the dynamics needed to cool the column down.

Well prior to that though, in this case the S/W is actually a polar/arctic one that comes careening down to subsume a Pac S/W ... Believe it or not, that type of evolution is actually more akin to Feb 1978; though there are large variances in details. That particular act of N stream taking over and fusing into a south moving interloper wave is what took place in 1978.[/quote

Good info. A triple phase and loop about 200 miles further east than the Euro would be beautiful. Even after Nemo and all the other Superstorms we have seen in the last 2 decades, my Dad who lived in Central Mass at the timealways goes back to 78. I wish I could remember it I was still in my mothers womb at the time about a 1 month old fetus at the time.

 

 

Well ... that was not intended to say this thing as modeled now is a triple phase... It's currently a two stream phase

[powderfreak]

Maybe ... no there's clearly a tendency to say it toward the model with the most snow.  Sorry, it comes across that way...

 

I think most on this forum have followed the EURO more often than the GFS, not because its always the more snowy model, but because its been superior, especially in the mid-range. 

[CoastalWx]

So the GFS is pretty much on its own with no real cyclogenesis off the East Coast. WTF.

Tippy, this is what we are talking about regarding euro vs GFS. GFS completely **** on itself with cyclogenesis it seems. Again.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think most on this forum have followed the EURO more often than the GFS, not because its always the more snowy model, but because its been superior, especially in the mid-range. 

 

It depends though... Beyond D4.5 the Euro is not that much better than the GFS ... .well, actually ha!  I am not so sure since the last beta version was rolled into production, which took place recently... But this time last year the Euro and GFS were virtually the same pieces of schit in the D5-7 range -- I know, because I kept track. That may not have been the case all over the world, but certainly over eastern was N/A/

[Damage In Tolland]

It depends though... Beyond D4.5 the Euro is not that much better than the GFS ... .well, actually ha! I am not so sure since the last beta version was rolled into production, which took place recently... But this time last year the Euro and GFS were virtually the same pieces of schit in the D5-7 range -- I know, because I kept track. That may not have been the case all over the world, but certainly over eastern was N/A/

Link?or pic of tracking data

[powderfreak]

It depends though... Beyond D4.5 the Euro is not that much better than the GFS ... .well, actually ha!  I am not so sure since the last beta version was rolled into production, which took place recently... But this time last year the Euro and GFS were virtually the same pieces of schit in the D5-7 range -- I know, because I kept track. That may not have been the case all over the world, but certainly over eastern was N/A/

 

The Euro definitely had a tougher time last winter at times, I remember that.  In the long run though, and certainly this season so far, I'd lean towards the Euro.  Maybe its not right, but the GFS took a big step in that direction at 18z. 

[CoastalWx]

Well even the GEFS look more like the euro, compared to the op. So, the op was in la-la land. It would be a huge model fail of every guidance including its own ensembles, if the op up until 18z was correct.

[REDMK6GLI]

It depends though... Beyond D4.5 the Euro is not that much better than the GFS ... .well, actually ha!  I am not so sure since the last beta version was rolled into production, which took place recently... But this time last year the Euro and GFS were virtually the same pieces of schit in the D5-7 range -- I know, because I kept track. That may not have been the case all over the world, but certainly over eastern was N/A/

IIRC the GFS actually performed better with the predominant -EPO pattern last winter. HOWEVER, now that we are in the el nino winter the EURO should once again take the crown as number one. since they're will be many more southern stream derived events as compared to last year.

[Ginx snewx]

The Euro definitely had a tougher time last winter at times, I remember that. In the long run though, and certainly this season so far, I'd lean towards the Euro. Maybe its not right, but the GFS took a big step in that direction at 18z.

every Met in every field has expressed their frustration with the GFS, year after year, from surface temps to qpf fields to 5h depiction. From NWS forecasters to high priced energy Mets. Data and real tracking methods have shown the issues. Its not an individual localized region specific issue either. Its global, don't know if you followed the Philippine Typhoons but,backtrack 2 days and look at GFS GEFS forecasts,brutal. Sure it is very useful at times but according to everything I read from people whose job it is to interpret its not reliable

[Baroclinic Zone]

Verifications scores are one thing but when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis, I know what model to rely more on.

[Damage In Tolland]

it's why every met that knows anything tosses most GFS runs until about 24-36 hours out

[Nittany88]

18z GFS is just about perfect for the Greens. A stall in the Gulf of Maine with NW flow pounding the spine.

[Ginx snewx]

18z GFS is just about perfect for the Greens. A stall in the Gulf of Maine with NW flow pounding the spine.

feet and feet

[powderfreak]

18z GFS is just about perfect for the Greens. A stall in the Gulf of Maine with NW flow pounding the spine.

 

I wasn't going to say it, but yeah, that would work.

 

Definitely some orographics at play in that solution.  It would be a good wind flow for BTV proper on the backside too when it goes from NE to NNW.  Its closer to the ECMWF, but I lean for a stronger low further south than the GFS has.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I think tonight's run is when the GFS goes bonkers

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

At the very least, everyone is still in the game for snow one way or another. Lots of rain followed by snow?

[Ginx snewx]

Pf I see the 92 shadow on that graphic

[weathafella]

Tip, tell your '92 story about the wall of snow moving across campus...Tyia.

[SnowMan]

Verifications scores are one thing but when it comes to east coast cyclogenesis, I know what model to rely more on.

JMA?

[Baroclinic Zone]

JMA?

i hope you are joking

[Go Kart Mozart]

Is this similar to Feb 1983?  I remember a huge high over Ontario and Quebec.  The big warm-up started the next morning.  In SWCT the storm started in the evening...that day was in the teens with a strong NE wind.  Of course the syncopy between the storm and the high was better in 83, I think it was an Archambault with a decaying -nao.