CT Rain Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Was this in the beginning? You could see a NW look on the mean as it was evolving. I can't see members though. It's hard to tell. At 00z Wednesday the best clustering is definitely LI/CT but by 12z-18z Wednesday the spread is massive - no real clustering of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 actually that low position looks like your favorite boxing day shredded flakes storm where you and Shabbots were in epic meltdowns. What a hideous storm that was. But even Boxing Day wasn't over Islip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well that pretty much settles it. it's a wire to wire rainer for anyone south of southern NH yea if it can"t snow at your house it cant snow anywhere south of NH especially in elevations in NORH county, the Berks..And its settled based on a 4 day prog, should we bump your theme song, their coming to take me away aha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 What a hideous storm that was. But even Boxing Day wasn't over Islip. Not Ens, Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 yea if it can"t snow at your house it cant snow anywhere south of NH especially in elevations in NORH county, the Berks..And its settled based on a 4 day prog, should we bump your theme song, their coming to take me away aha Isn't his rule that they always come east under 48hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Jeffaffa I certainly am extremely envious of your position on this Euro depiction. Hopefully it stalls in just the right position for you to relive your avatar. A nice 43" snowfall, sedately spread over about 75 hours (Farmington in 1969) - who could say no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 yea if it can"t snow at your house it cant snow anywhere south of NH especially in elevations in NORH county, the Berks..And its settled based on a 4 day prog, should we bump your theme song, their coming to take me away aha He is trying to get his reverse psychology juju going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 yea if it can"t snow at your house it cant snow anywhere south of NH especially in elevations in NORH county, the Berks..And its settled based on a 4 day prog, should we bump your theme song, their coming to take me away ahaIf it stalls on LI no one south of there sees snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Isn't his rule that they always come east under 48hrs? The odd thing is its a strong front end dump to slot to snow for him on most of the Ens as it stalls and crawls towards Boston Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If it stalls on LI no one south of there sees snow You understand the whole occlusion process, crashing heights thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Like Ryan alluded to earlier, I see a few members well East, a few members in a great spot ,and a clustering of members further west near Long Island and Connecticut and with the Euro operational and control versions as well as the UKmet and Canadian further west I would be inclined to go with those solutions based on the available data and hope for a shift on some of the operational models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 If you recall in the last storm, there was a big clustering near the NJ coast/NYC and just S of LI at this time range...and the storm ended up tracking over the benchmark. Clustering can be useful to see how the ensembles are treating the evolution in a phasing sense...but trusting that the actual location of that evolution is going to be accurate is iffy at this time range. This is why the ensemble mean scores the highest several days out. I'd be more into the clustering idea once we are inside of 4 days when the skill of spatial distrubtion of each shortwave is much improved. But the big phasing idea is definitely on the table...we've seen multiple models do it now. Where the exact phasing happens is obviously going to be a big impact on the sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm inclined to wait 4 days and then make a call. We are 100+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I do like the fact that it dug a little deeper when looking at H5 differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 lol I didn't realize what an emotional impact 92 had peeps not in the snow, to me on the coast it was one of the most memorable storms of my life meteorological wise. for sure there would be some epic meltdowns with that kind of downslope valley shutout and coastal rains but weather wise that was pretty rare. Believe me I am not comparing the sensible weather to that only how the atmosphere sets up on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 lol I didn't realize what an emotional impact 92 had peeps not in the snow, to me on the coast it was one of the most memorable storms of my life meteorological wise. for sure there would be some epic meltdowns with that kind of downslope valley shutout and coastal rains but weather wise that was pretty rare. Believe me I am not comparing the sensible weather to that only how the atmosphere sets up on the Euro. Will, Ray, and Kevin to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A good stall and regrograde... blocking is king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I remember the day before that 1992 event, I was sitting in some American Lit course up and UML, and some gal, a Met student (this was prior to my transferring to the department) was sitting next to me. I knew she was in the program up there, so I asked her about the big storm coming ... mentioning the cold rain. She said they didn't think it was going to be all rain. Heh, guess they were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Here's the thing on the Euro Ensembles... the biggest "clustering" of lows I see is over Long Island and Connecticut. Most members west of the mean with a handful waaaaaaay east. While the "mean" looks nice most of the members aren't even close to it. Exactly what I was saying earlier with the problems with ensembles in these amped up storms...there's always a few that show either no storm or are so weak to the east that it skews the mean east when the main cluster could be similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 92 is still my top 2 or 3 fave. Driving up to wife's parents house at 880 in Tolland from Vernon. What a difference. 6-7 inches to 16-18 there with tree carnage and power out for 5 days. Praying we get something similar soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 You understand the whole occlusion process, crashing heights thingy I give you props Ginxy...you are fully into this all the while knowing your area may not stand a good chance at significant snow. You can tell you are amped even for the chance of VT/NH/ME to get snow, and keeping your eye out for an improvement at home. An equal opportunity weenie. Definitely the least IMBY one of us on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I hated the storm of 92. I sat in the common room at the dorm watching CNN to get radar updates which would show my area in Central VT smoking virga while the actual snow stopped miles short of me. This went on and on and on and on and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I could see this turning into quite the elevation dependent snowstorm. It just has that marginal low level feel and isothermal column thing going for it...like its ripping heavy snow in the heavy precip, and then light rain in the lighter times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Even Mitch boards the 92 train @BerkshireWx: While not identical, this storm as currently modeled reminds me of the Dec. 1992 nor'easter, which dumped upwards of 50" in some towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 92 is still my top 2 or 3 fave. Driving up to wife's parents house at 880 in Tolland from Vernon. What a difference. 6-7 inches to 16-18 there with tree carnage and power out for 5 days. Praying we get something similar soon Khali Maa....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 I could see this turning into quite the elevation dependent snowstorm. It just has that marginal low level feel and isothermal column thing going for it...like its ripping heavy snow in the heavy precip, and then light rain in the lighter times. Could be E slope delight if we end up with that deep layer easterly flow. Where 800 feet elevation on easterly facing slopes are plastured and 800 feet on westerly facing slopes are struggling...it can be pretty notable when you have the deep layer east flow in marginal setups. But that type of detail is going to be for something inside of 3 days once we get a better handle on the evolution...I'm still not convinced that the BL wedge over the interior is going to give out as easy as models want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 18z GFS digging the northern stream s/w further south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm inclined to wait 4 days and then make a call. We are 100+ hours out. No one is making a call. what I was saying is I am inclined to go with the further west solution as the most likely scenario based on today's data only.everyone was getting wrapped up in how favorable the ensemble mean was lookingbut I was arguing that the majority of today's data still looked further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I hated the storm of 92. I sat in the common room at the dorm watching CNN to get radar updates which would show my area in Central VT smoking virga while the actual snow stopped miles short of me. This went on and on and on and on and on. Haha, Vermonters seem to have different opinions on a lot of storms than the rest of New England. Whether we loved a storm and everyone else hated it, or everyone else loved it and we hated it. Even the more populated areas of Maine and NH often get in on more of the big SNE storms...but VT's largest population areas are further north (like Montpelier and Burlington) where as the other NNE states have their populations more in the southern parts of the states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 18z GFS digging the northern stream s/w further south this run Finally getting a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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