Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 So the GFS is pretty much on its own with no real cyclogenesis off the East Coast. WTF. Lol. Part of me wants to see the GFS win... I realize it's still 108 hours out... it's a nice little model war already though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 So the GFS is pretty much on its own with no real cyclogenesis off the East Coast. WTF. Steaming pile of goat turds that model has been in the D4-6 range thus far...I'll apologize if it ends up scoring a coup, but I don't think I'm holding my breath for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Just read about Dec 1992...yeah I'd take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Lol. Part of me wants to see the GFS win... I realize it's still 108 hours out... it's a nice little model war already though... Steaming pile of goat turds that model has been in the D4-6 range thus far...I'll apologize if it ends up scoring a coup, but I don't think I'm holding my breath for that. I'm giving it a day before tearing it a new one...but I already have a good feeling on whether it is right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 What an active fall it's been with several coastal storms since October. El Niño doing it's work and now the long range is looking more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Have not been able to look at the Pacific, but is there any help that we can get out there with that huge ULL? Anyway that retrogrades or breaks down on the Eastern edge to allow this Northern streamer to dig for oil earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 What an active fall it's been with several coastal storms since October. El Niño doing it's work and now the long range is looking more promising. Heh, ..not so sure that connection can be made without a lot of qualitative analysis/re-analysis once the season is passe. There are a lot of autumns that features an uptick in event frequency when there was a fledgling cool ENSO in the Pac, just as well... I'd like to see a solid pattern that's well correlated with the PNA-warm-ENSO archetype. It's really been storming different ways, where it almost seems the coastal are formed of different means. We had a cool wind-swept Nor'easter with thunder and flooding rains back in October, and that was entirely a cut-off. Then we had snow threat for the SE coast from something more like a PNA trough amplitude. Then we had the T-D storm ... I guess that was similar, but now this is different again. We're looking at a disconnected arctic jet up there, and below it there is a very weak STJ ... Warm ENSO events usually bring a stronger STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm giving it a day before tearing it a new one...but I already have a good feeling on whether it is right or wrong. Would it have anything to do with the Euro/Ukie/GGEM/NAM (even though its out in la la land) show similar scenarios then the GFS................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Would it have anything to do with the Euro/Ukie/GGEM/NAM (even though its out in la la land) show similar scenarios then the GFS................. Getting warmer! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Getting warmer! LOL. Yeah, Real warm........ , It really has been awful, Probably the reason the Para GFS got pushed back, They have some major issues with the way they are handling the data and running some comparisons with the two they changes were not glaring but looked like some of the same issues with these coastal systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hmm. Looks like ensembles dig the trough a little deeper. The mean has the low closer to the BM, but a wider isobar contour means spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Almost a stall ESE of Chatham. Would turn the coast back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hmm. Looks like ensembles dig the trough a little deeper. The mean has the low closer to the BM, but a wider isobar contour means spread. Probably a while before we resolve this one. I wouldn't mind being up at Sunday River though for this one...stalled out down near BM/E of CC with easterly flow up there? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Probably a while before we resolve this one. I wouldn't mind being up at Sunday River though for this one...stalled out down near BM/E of CC with easterly flow up there? Nice. Slam that flow against the terrain. They'll get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Almost a stall ESE of Chatham. Would turn the coast back to snow. That would be more the type we would want to see, That would be a snow bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hmm. Looks like ensembles dig the trough a little deeper. The mean has the low closer to the BM, but a wider isobar contour means spread. Almost a stall ESE of Chatham. Would turn the coast back to snow. I like it, I like it a lot. Seems like we've got a new plan of action on how to get everyone some snow with this, that is, dig dig dig and try to get the polar jet involved as much as possible instead of hoping it goes away and we have a southern stream event. Still pretty far out there and there's a lot more that can go wrong than right, but no matter what happens, this is a fascinating event to track and watch unfold on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Probably a while before we resolve this one. I wouldn't mind being up at Sunday River though for this one...stalled out down near BM/E of CC with easterly flow up there? Nice. Yes, it's been a great start to the season up N. Lot's of places opening up right around now too. May have to see if I can go up after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 That thing takes forever to depart on the EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Probably a while before we resolve this one. I wouldn't mind being up at Sunday River though for this one...stalled out down near BM/E of CC with easterly flow up there? Nice. Hopefully a really long while for when I get back from IA on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Some of these clubs could actually start grooming on Dec 15th when trails officially open up here if this one plays out right for the Jackman region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Yes, it's been a great start to the season up N. Lot's of places opening up right around now too. May have to see if I can go up after Christmas. I posted the current trail map of what's open at SR in the ski thread, pretty impressive looking for December 5th. If this pans out as the EURO suggests it may, we're going to see a whole lot more of those green checkmarks on snow reports... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hopefully a really long while for when I get back from IA on Thursday. I ttakes a while...but not that long. Even the slower solutions should be out of here by Thursday during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I like the sound of the ensembles...trust those more than the Op runs at this point in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That thing takes forever to depart on the EC ensembles. I do think we see that play out. This look looks like it's going to get pinched off of the mean flow and take it's merry time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Sounds like days and days of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Digging for oil on future runs may not be the worst thing...that is what Dec 1992 ended up doing...it just kept acting like a backhoe into VA rather than swinging up NE and cutting it through NE or HV...I mean, I'm not saying it would repeat that (for those who get any ideas), but you point out a way how it can end up snowier by just digging for oil. Will 3 days ago I had this 92 feel and mentioned in somewhat jest here but damn this euro run brings back memories. Being cognizant of a stall and capture this could rank up there guys if as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Sounds like days and days of snow Up north it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That thing takes forever to depart on the EC ensembles. Decent(.1"+ in 6 hours) precipitation still at hour 138 for about ORH east and north into NNE, might even get one more panel at that level for ME when it comes out. Would support a good period of snow on the back end for pretty much everyone as temps crash west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Sounds like days and days of snow For ski country, yes, for you it's like a day of rain to a day of snow. That is, if you take the EURO ens timing verbatim, in reality, it probably gets condensed somewhat when you eliminate the spread among the members, although if it occludes, stalls, and parks it's self in the area, who knows how long it takes to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Up north it is. Agreed. Looks good Wocester on north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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