ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 That actually may get the job done in NNE though...big hit for the Whites and Maine mountains. We'd do ok over here but QPF is much less, only 0.6" vs 1.2" to the east. We'll all feel really bad if you only get 8" of synotpic snow and 22" of upslope vs 14" of synoptic snow and 21" of upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Trying to give SNE a few inches of backlash on Wed night. Will, if this thing is sitting south of SNE, and retrogrades back toward NYC, how come SNE doesn't get hit with snow?? It's to our South, and we would be on the cold side...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Prob the best way to get accumulating snow in SNE in this setup outside of the ORH hills/Monads/Berks. Agree. That's probably the best hope here..which is always a little precarious. Another fun solution on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 lol wow just keeps snowing into Thursday morning. Certainly a long duration event............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 This may be in the "may not matter bin" but it dug significantly deeper than 00z, almost to the point where I thought it may shove east. Digging for oil on future runs may not be the worst thing...that is what Dec 1992 ended up doing...it just kept acting like a backhoe into VA rather than swinging up NE and cutting it through NE or HV...I mean, I'm not saying it would repeat that (for those who get any ideas), but you point out a way how it can end up snowier by just digging for oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We'll all feel really bad if you only get 8" of synotpic snow and 22" of upslope vs 14" of synoptic snow and 21" of upslope.Well I was just saying why I thought the run was better for the Whites and Maine mountains, lol. Wasn't looking for sympathy .Do you not agree that would crush SR/Loaf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We'll all feel really bad if you only get 8" of synotpic snow and 22" of upslope vs 14" of synoptic snow and 21" of upslope. Keg at the picnic table instead of a 30 pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Digging for oil on future runs may not be the worst thing...that is what Dec 1992 ended up doing...it just kept acting like a backhoe into VA rather than swinging up NE and cutting it through NE or HV...I mean, I'm not saying it would repeat that (for those who get any ideas), but you point out a way how it can end up snowier by just digging for oil. I mean look at hr 132 vs hr 144 from 00z, if you can. That's a difference there. At hr 132, it's about maybe 200 miles SE of 00z at H5. Hence the backlash. Like I said..it may not matter...but if that nrn stream continues stronger..could be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Will, if this thing is sitting south of SNE, and retrogrades back toward NYC, how come SNE doesn't get hit with snow?? It's to our South, and we would be on the cold side...no? It does snow in SNE...once the 5H low moves out S, SE, and E of us...initially, the 5H low is going nuclear over like Delaware and S NJ, so that is a bit too far W..though sometimes the hills can do ok in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Keg at the picnic table instead of a 30 pack Gotta be real careful with words around here, haha. That was a good run here. Phenomenal though for like Jackman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 A page back we were saying that becuase the northern stream was stronger it was a bad thing? Now if the Northern stream is Stronger it's a good thing? I'm a little confused lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We'll all never forget your meltdown in the Boxing Day 2010 storm..cursing at being dryslotted with occasional snow grains while a 974mb low pressure was cruising toward CHH giving us howling gusts to 60mph. I know.....he always needs to take on this pompus attitude when someone disagrees with him that it must be because they don't understand the his conceptualization ......then in the next breath, throw a temper tantrum because he is not a world renouned meteorologist. Like, I can't believe they didntr recognize your scribblings on a bethroom stall 20 years ago before Cohen's publishings earned such high accolades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Gotta be real careful with words around here, haha. That was a good run here. Phenomenal though for like Jackman. It certainly appears that way, Looks like we would torch here in the upper levels until it occludes and starts moving NE mtns would do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well I was just saying why I thought the run was better for the Whites and Maine mountains, lol. Wasn't looking for sympathy . Do you not agree that would crush SR/Loaf? Yes I do agree that SR/SL would get hammered...big easterly flow into that wall of mountains there. Your area is going to do well regardless because of all the leftover moisture and NW flow when this thing crawls slowly NE, so you will get awesome upslope on all sorts of tracks since they all sort of end up somewhere in either NE Maine or adjacent Nova Scotia...the only way you'd get screwed is if this wrapped up so much that it went like up through PLB and then NW into W Quebec and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It does snow in SNE...once the 5H low moves out S, SE, and E of us...initially, the 5H low is going nuclear over like Delaware and S NJ, so that is a bit too far W..though sometimes the hills can do ok in that. Oh ok..thanks for the reply! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Digging for oil on future runs may not be the worst thing...that is what Dec 1992 ended up doing...it just kept acting like a backhoe into VA rather than swinging up NE and cutting it through NE or HV...I mean, I'm not saying it would repeat that (for those who get any ideas), but you point out a way how it can end up snowier by just digging for oil. What did Dec 1992 bring to the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Buying stock in toaster sales seems like a good idea.No, I'm resigned to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 A page back we were saying that becuase the northern stream was stronger it was a bad thing? Now if the Northern stream is Stronger it's a good thing? I'm a little confused lol. If you go back and read...there's two scenarios to get accumulating snow in SNE: 1. The northern stream stays almost out of the picture or very weak (this looks very unlikely now) 2. The northern stream digs like crazy and phases with the southern stream causing a very deep upper low to travel south fo SNE and eventually east of SNE...this would probably be rain (esp low elevation) initially, but then flip to snow on the backside with the strong TROWAL and CCB leftovers associated with the deep upper low. What we don't want is the GFS situation where the northern stream is dominant but doesn't dig much...that gives us a glorified strong clipper tracking NW and never gets a good coastal going until way too late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That was one heck of an odd evolution though...good luck forecasting this one until 12hrs out. At least on the weatherbell maps that low goes from like Long Island to Central Jersey then to almost the benchmark and then due north to east of BOS, then west again towards the coast before pulling away into DE Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This does not look to resolve itself anytime soon as we still are getting these different scenarios run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If you go back and read...there's two scenarios to get accumulating snow in SNE: 1. The northern stream stays almost out of the picture or very weak (this looks very unlikely now) 2. The northern stream digs like crazy and phases with the southern stream causing a very deep upper low to travel south fo SNE and eventually east of SNE...this would probably be rain (esp low elevation) initially, but then flip to snow on the backside with the strong TROWAL and CCB leftovers associated with the deep upper low. What we don't want is the GFS situation where the northern stream is dominant but doesn't dig much...that gives us a glorified strong clipper tracking NW and never gets a good coastal going until way too late in the game. Thank YOu again Will!! I have been following, but I didn't see how that came about. You guys know the inns and outs so when you see things and talk it's easy for you educated guys. For me, who is not as versed, I read and see what you say, but sometimes it's confusing. I do Thank You for the lesson. Hoping for good things here :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 That was one heck of an odd evolution though...good luck forecasting this one until 12hrs out. At least on the weatherbell maps that low goes from like Long Island to Central Jersey then to almost the benchmark and then due north to east of BOS, then west again towards the coast before pulling away into DE Maine. Yeah that's why I'm reluctant to latch onto these changes as "trends"...the main trend I see that appears to be real is that the northern stream wants to dig south more than previously. Otherwise, there's a lot of other moving parts and chaos that will change from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We'll all never forget your meltdown in the Boxing Day 2010 storm..cursing at being dryslotted with occasional snow grains while a 974mb low pressure was cruising toward CHH giving us howling gusts to 60mph. Meh, wasn't a melt-down... I was displeased with the storm and voiced that, but others who want to couch me in with that crap assigned that characterization to me. And it stuck .. but is unfortunately not true. It's okay to be displeased with a turn on a storm and not have be because I have a predisposed obsession that clouds me from seeing the value and fascination, with other aspects of natural science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is starting to remind of December 1992....though that low probably stayed a bit south of this. After doing it's loop de loop the low in '92 drifted east off southern NJ and south of LI with what amounted to a second decent snowstorm to its northwest. Areas further south and east that missed the first part got a snow event from part two. Some places got both like the Catskills and were under 3.5 feet of snow. I like how the TROWAL wraps around enough to at least give us a parting gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The one thing that is going to take a lot of work, is to relieve the inundation of marine puke just aloft from like 950-850. The euro as is right now, floods the area >0C at 925mb past SYR and up into ART Granted a lot of that may be at like 1C, but that's the problem with retreating highs and then having that stupid system moving in from the west and creating WAA aloft. It would definitely help to have this dig for oil to the SE and keep flow in those levels more E-NE..but that level above the CAD zone, up through 850 looks tough even if it does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is starting to remind of December 1992....though that low probably stayed a bit south of this. After doing it's loop de loop the low in '92 drifted east off southern NJ and south of LI with what amounted to a second decent snowstorm to its northwest. Areas further south and east that missed the first part got a snow event from part two. Some places got both like the Catskills and were under 3.5 feet of snow. I mentioned that yesterday.. But they said it wasn't like it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 I mentioned that yesterday.. But they said it wasn't like it at all It would need to dig about another 150-200 miles SW of the current run to be comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ahh yes. When closed lows south of LI bring out the 1992 analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 well, one thing is for certain... it's 96 hours before the N and S stream hook up on this thing, and about 108 to 120 hour before it is fully matured aloft and collocated at the surface (Euro). There are enough variances across the individual Euro runs (I assume most know this...) not to be too consumed by nuances on this or any other previous ... not when there are 100 to 120 hours of lead time left to go. also, the GFS is trending back SW as others have noted... So, SOMEWHERE in the middle there is the truth, and we are not yet seeing that depiction. So it's just another run along a hurry up and wait scenario... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It would need to dig about another 150-200 miles SW of the current run to be comparable. Of course, it could certainly do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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