CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:42 AM, weathafella said: How are you getting NNE with a low below the New York bight and a high sliding east? Aweenieostrophic circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:42 AM, weathafella said: How are you getting NNE with a low below the New York bight and a high sliding east?Youre assuming the Euro track is right. I'm thinking it ends up east of there over E LI or maybe SE of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Youre assuming the Euro track is right. I'm thinking it ends up east of there over E LI or maybe SE of there It might. I do think they are under playing the front ender. The antecedent is the best we've had so far this young season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:49 AM, weathafella said: It might. I do think they are under playing the front ender. The antecedent is the best we've had so far this young season.Unfortunately it prob won't matter much for you or me.. But it could north and west of ORH and BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Youre assuming the Euro track is right. I'm thinking it ends up east of there over E LI or maybe SE of thereJust yesterday it was ,"rain to Montreal and a track up the HRV".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Unfortunately it prob won't matter much for you or me.. But it could north and west of ORH and BDL I'd happily grab an inch or 2 on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just yesterday it was ,"rain to Montreal and a track up the HRV"....As the atmosphere changes we must change with it or be left behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:56 AM, weathafella said: I'd happily grab an inch or 2 on the front end. I do think this one is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 1:57 AM, Damage In Tolland said: As the atmosphere changes we must change with it or be left behind The first stage in recovery is self realization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 2:02 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: I do think this one is coming Methinks you do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm okay if we dont see snow from this. As long as well start getting chances when real winter starts, I'll take the cold rain now, not Jan 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Staying in the 20s for most during the day Monday. Methinks fella is correct in thinking that there may be a front end inch, two, or three in some places expecting predominantly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Gfs looks like its going just east of LONG ISLAND by hour 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 GFS model looks like it'd be a nice front-end thump in far Northwest Connecticut and the Berkshires before it occludes near Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 definitely noticeably further west than the previous run, actually retrogrades back into Eastern Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That's some east versus west cutoff on the NAM. Reminds me a lot of the Feb 25, 2010 storm. 850 line aligned from NYC to DDH to far northern NH at the height of it. In 2010 I had snow all day and the relatively stationary R-S line sat 10 miles east of me for hours. I wouldn't mention a NAM at 84 hrs, except that its really fallen into line with the two European models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Maybe the inversion is too low again for a high wind damaging event on Cape Cod, MA. Twisterdata.com GFS and NAM information shows a 70-80 knot 925mb low level jet encompassing the region by 00z Wednesday from the NAM, while the 18z GFS shows 50-60knot winds. I just want either a snowstorm or wind event to occur, I could do without the rain if I can get the wind, it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 At 84 hours on the NAM ...NE is dry slotted in any event. Whatever happened has happened in terms of a front end and the deformation is in NY State, and may even shift west of me for awhile into central NY, but the southern end of it is pivoting back on toward southwest CT in classic fashion. BTV could be dry slotted while BDR has snow. On 12/7/2014 at 4:20 AM, jamesnichols89 said: Maybe the inversion is too low again for a high wind damaging event on Cape Cod, MA. Twisterdata.com GFS and NAM information shows a 70-80 knot 925mb low level jet encompassing the region by 00z Wednesday from the NAM, while the 18z GFS shows 50-60knot winds. I just want either a snowstorm or wind event to occur, I could do without the rain if I can get the wind, it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 4:15 AM, Logan11 said: That's some east versus west cutoff on the NAM. Reminds me a lot of the Feb 25, 2010 storm. 850 line aligned from NYC to DDH to far northern NH at the height of it. In 2010 I had snow all day and the relatively stationary R-S line sat 10 miles east of me for hours. I wouldn't mention a NAM at 84 hrs, except that its really fallen into line with the two European models now. I didn't like you that day as I was wet in Queensbury while you pounded to my South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hah ...but Monroe where you are now was pounded..... so this thing could have surprises like that again. On 12/7/2014 at 4:39 AM, West Mtn NY said: I didn't like you that day as I was wet in Queensbury while you pounded to my South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I think it was snowing at your other place downstate (Monroe) while raining in Queensbury too! On 12/7/2014 at 4:39 AM, West Mtn NY said: I didn't like you that day as I was wet in Queensbury while you pounded to my South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I had about your longitude in that one (Rotterdam - slightly east maybe) and waffled all day. Painful, but it was awesome to watch unfold. On 12/7/2014 at 4:44 AM, Logan11 said: Hah ...but Monroe where you are now was pounded..... so this thing could have surprises like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 We don't have much margin for error here in ENY. I think we'll get front ended pretty good, but if it shifts any more west we'll mix over to something and dry slot while Central NY is pounded with deformation. On 12/7/2014 at 4:46 AM, Stash said: I think it was snowing at your other place downstate (Monroe) while raining in Queensbury too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The cutoff for all snow was just west of Rotterdam I guess..maybe Rotterdam Junction. My sister lives in Duanesburg, 5 miles west of the Thruway and I-88 junction and she had three feet on the ground. Whats that maybe 5 miles and two feet difference. LOL On 12/7/2014 at 4:48 AM, Stash said: I had about your longitude in that one (Rotterdam - slightly east maybe) and waffled all day. Painful, but it was awesome to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 4:49 AM, Logan11 said: We don't have much margin for error here in ENY. I think we'll get front ended pretty good, but if it shifts any more west we'll mix over to something and dry slot while Central NY is pounded with deformation. I don't know which location to ride this one out in.....Could be moot if it trends any further West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Have I stumbled in to the upstate NY thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The LES snow belts may end up with another bonanza, of the synoptic type this go around. I couldn't care less at this point...I'm just glad its trended far enough west to not be a Dec 1996 reenactment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Damn...euro does not want mpm and I to have power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 On 12/7/2014 at 6:09 AM, dendrite said: Damn...euro does not want mpm and I to have power. ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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