ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 While there is still a decent amount of model spread and that is to be expected 120 hours out, the ensemble support for some type of storm nearby has increased quite a bit today.The storm was originally about 24 hours earlier on guidance but has since developed later. This is actually crucial because the later amplification of the trough allows a potent high to our northeast to slide east a bit. This makes it tougher to hold in the cold airmass, especially along the coast. But this could still change a bit.The areas most favored for snow would be the interior hills, especially CNE and NNE.But given the timeframe, obviously a lot can still change and likely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Boom Boom... can you hear the drumbeats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 While there is still a decent amount of model spread and that is to be expected 120 hours out, the ensemble support for some type of storm nearby has increased quite a bit today. The storm was originally about 24 hours earlier on guidance but has since developed later. This is actually crucial because the later amplification of the torch allows a potent high to our northeast to slide east a bit. This makes it tougher to hold in the cold airmass, especially along the coast. But this could still change a bit. The areas most favored for snow would be the interior hills, especially CNE and NNE. But given the timeframe, obviously a lot can still change and likely will. someone in the NYC subforum put up a snow map already. that said, this setup with HP sliding east over maine is basically like you said an inner NE/NNE storm. getting the easterly flow from the escaping HP spells more liquid than rain down in SNE/NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm not sure why, but my gut tells me this is going way west. The setup certainly favors west over east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 someone in the NYC subforum put up a snow map already. that said, this setup with HP sliding east over maine is basically like you said an inner NE/NNE storm. getting the easterly flow from the escaping HP spells more liquid than rain down in SNE/NYC area. Let me guess, his/her BY jackpots? Anyway, interesting setup for NNE/interior SNE for sure, but several ways that most/all of us can get in on at least some of the fun(Quicker timing, strong wraparound snows, colder profile overall, etc.). Considering the magnitude of the changes we'd need to see to make it more interesting for many(Not much), the spread we have in modeling(A good amount), and the lead time(A good amount), I'd be keeping a corner of an eye on this no matter where you live if you're looking to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That's some real nice cold coming in Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That's some real nice cold coming in Sunday.That's all fine and Jim Dandy, but what is there to keep this from continuing west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 That's some real nice cold coming in Sunday. The Sunday night timing would have been primo vs Monday afternoon/evening. Still, we have to watch...even on highs going from CAR ENE to Nova Scotia, you can get a pretty nice wedge that is underplayed on model guidance...esp with a nice fresh arctic airmass like that one. You can sort of see how if the northern energy cedes more power to the southern stream, the high would probably be better anchored in...on the Euro, it still has a decent wedge inland, but you can see how the low up near James Bay is being a bit of a turd in the punch bowl for the coast...weaken that thing a bit and the high would probably be a little better oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Sunday night timing would have been primo vs Monday afternoon/evening. Still, we have to watch...even on highs going from CAR ENE to Nova Scotia, you can get a pretty nice wedge that is underplayed on model guidance...esp with a nice fresh arctic airmass like that one. You can sort of see how if the northern energy cedes more power to the southern stream, the high would probably be better anchored in...on the Euro, it still has a decent wedge inland, but you can see how the low up near James Bay is being a bit of a turd in the punch bowl for the coast...weaken that thing a bit and the high would probably be a little better oriented. you have some of the best jokes in here ORH. this storm is more promising than the last and makes you think what it would be like if we had a notable -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm not sure why, but my gut tells me this is going way west. The setup certainly favors west over east Good! I love it when you feel rain over snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The Sunday night timing would have been primo vs Monday afternoon/evening. Still, we have to watch...even on highs going from CAR ENE to Nova Scotia, you can get a pretty nice wedge that is underplayed on model guidance...esp with a nice fresh arctic airmass like that one. You can sort of see how if the northern energy cedes more power to the southern stream, the high would probably be better anchored in...on the Euro, it still has a decent wedge inland, but you can see how the low up near James Bay is being a bit of a turd in the punch bowl for the coast...weaken that thing a bit and the high would probably be a little better oriented. Y That nrn stream low also provides WAA aloft to warm those temps as well. Fighting a couple of things here on the CP and esp south of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The other thing is to have the low further east, but I feel like a further east solution like the ensembles have, is less of a probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Caution flags galore over this. Expectations low The picture should be clearer on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 We continue to get good coastals depsite different patterns. One has to be encouraged by winter's possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That nrn stream low also provides WAA aloft to warm those temps as well. Fighting a couple of things here on the CP and esp south of I-90.Coast has way more problems than interior south of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Bump for met answer The same with any other storm. Lack of phasing and keeping the s/w's separate. Fast flow could do it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Coast has way more problems than interior south of pike It's a general idea...I'm not getting into the specifics. You have mid level issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's a general idea...I'm not getting into the specifics. You have mid level issues. Yes....weenies need to lay off this idea until we are closer. Specifics are not going to be accurate at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's a general idea...I'm not getting into the specifics. You have mid level issues.If our suspicions are right even NNE may have some problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I can't recall a storm like this that sort of developed from a remnant boundary to our south and then back NW after being forced south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 If our suspicions are right even NNE may have some problems Not NNE. It's not going right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 How many wife's insisted on Peter Pan on the tube, thank God for a storm threat to follow. Kevin working the reverse psychology tonight hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Coast has way more problems than interior south of pike I see why you thought that, it came out bad. I meant south of 90 and over by the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Not NNE. It's not going right over us.Theres a decent chance it cuts as far west as Hrv .. We've been thru this drill before. Nothing to keep it east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I am getting like Scooter pissed off when interior peeps whine at a setup like this, Geezus MPM PF and even Hunchie are gold on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wait for the run over the next few days that brings it over SE Mass. This place will lose it. Hope it doesn't happen,, but it is entirely possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wait for the run over the next few days that brings it over SE Mass. This place will lose it. Hope it doesn't happen,, but it is entirely possible Not if you recognize the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I am getting like Scooter pissed off when interior peeps whine at a setup like this, Geezus MPM PF and even Hunchie are gold on the EuroYeah. Whining all the way to 12+.MPM isn't even remotely close to tainting on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 How's the tides, Ginxy? Serious question. Edit: Nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Wait for the run over the next few days that brings it over SE Mass. This place will lose it. Hope it doesn't happen,, but it is entirely possiblepretty sure no one is on the big snow storm train yet doubt any model change will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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