RedSky Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Like the new probability snow maps from the NWS. 35% chance of 1" or more snow for higher elevations and 70% of greater than .1" Expectations are mood flakes late Tuesday evening and Wednesday and a bonus if i get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 FA could you please explain that graphic? Basically, this system is starting out borderline-tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm enjoying the occasional snow showers here. Even if the rest of the event is rain, at least there's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Expecting a dicey commute here in the Lehigh valley tomorrow morning , before temps hopefully rise in the late morning . Most of the LV is between 25-26 , close to 10 degrees below forecast Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 And just like that, the NAM snow fantasy vanishes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ready to sign up for the 18 Z NAM. Wish it was not the NAM Awsome run for my backyard. Wondering if we get any plain rain. Current temp is 20 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 And just like that, the NAM snow fantasy vanishes... for who? Seemed to pound my area and many others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think Ray means for us relatively lower elevation folks in SE PA for who? Seemed to pound my area and many others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 for who? Seemed to pound my area and many others In Philly, the 18Z snow map should look much different from the 12Z, shown below... Still, even up there, its pretty warm. Probably very low ratio with temps at your elevation probably still above freezing until after 0Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Poor Wxsim not doing very well this year....last storm sees mostly rain and it snows....this one keeps thinking ice and then 3 to 4" of snow and my NWS point and click under 1" and mainly just plain rain. I will re-run it later and maybe it will catch on. It was updated to include a built in learning routine so maybe it will learn from it's errors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 From today’s 1:06 PM discussion: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 106 PM EST Monday Dec 8 2014 *** *** *** Tuesday...stormy. Precipitable water 1 to 2 South Dakota above normal. East-southeast inflow at 850 mb about 4 to 5 South Dakota above normal. Weakening 700 mb steering winds and eventual formation of a 700mb low over New Jersey keeps the dry slot over eastern New Jersey and banding to the west over the Delaware valley and westward. *** *** *** End of quote - Can someone help this old noob with terminology? All I can guess is that “South Dakota”above means Standard Deviation, but that does not make sense to me, at least in the context. So, I’m guessing it means maybe something else. Duh. I knw there are better ways to spend my time, but I was just wonderin'. Thanks in advance - Jim Herbert - stemwinder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 From today’s 1:06 PM discussion: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 106 PM EST Monday Dec 8 2014 *** *** *** Tuesday...stormy. Precipitable water 1 to 2 South Dakota above normal. East-southeast inflow at 850 mb about 4 to 5 South Dakota above normal. Weakening 700 mb steering winds and eventual formation of a 700mb low over New Jersey keeps the dry slot over eastern New Jersey and banding to the west over the Delaware valley and westward. *** *** *** End of quote - Can someone help this old noob with terminology? All I can guess is that “South Dakota”above means Standard Deviation, but that does not make sense to me, at least in the context. So, I’m guessing it means maybe something else. Duh. I knw there are better ways to spend my time, but I was just wonderin'. Thanks in advance - Jim Herbert - stemwinder No, it is Standard Deviation (I guess that's a program that tries to make plain english out of the AFD? the raw text just has SD) Here's a link all about that (at least the PW part, you can guess the rest): http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 No, it is Standard Deviation (I guess that's a program that tries to make plain english out of the AFD? the raw text just has SD) Here's a link all about that (at least the PW part, you can guess the rest): http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw Ray, thanks for that, and for the link. - Glad to hear that it's raining on the west coast at last, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ray, thanks for that, and for the link. - Glad to hear that it's raining on the west coast at last, too. No problem. Nothing in Elko for the last week or so, but that should change Friday. At this point I'm just so tired of all the anxiety about the drought that I don't care what falls from the sky, as long as its a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Sent from my iPad I think the WWA will shift more SE into Mont/Bucks counties...shore points have their problems w/rain/wind/high tide/flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I think the WWA will shift more SE into Mont/Bucks counties...shore points have their problems w/rain/wind/high tide/flooding. Idk, even for LV It's for less then an inch lol. Whatever floats there boat Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Idk, even for LV It's for less then an inch lol. Whatever floats there boat Sent from my iPad No Met but LV will get more than a inch IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 No Met but LV will get more than a inch IMO. Yeah I think so too, maybe 2-4" Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I feel really bad pro mets. 18z nam loses the deform band. And 18z GFS says hellllllooooo death band for eastern pa Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 1050 High to the north...? This one ull hang around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 18z nam loses the deform band. And 18z GFS says hellllllooooo death band for eastern pa Am I seeing that right? Am I really in the bullseye??? I'm speechless...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 21.4 here. I don't even see it going above freezing here tomorrow. Even though models (10m and 850 ) have the 540 nowhere even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Idk, even for LV It's for less then an inch lol. Whatever floats there boat That is because freezing rain and light icing is in the forecast. Advisory criteria for freezing rain is a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That is because freezing rain and light icing is in the forecast. Advisory criteria for freezing rain is a trace. And rightfully so. All it takes is a trace to cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 And rightfully so. All it takes is a trace to cause problems. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Exactly. Yeah... You guys have a solid handle on this event and kudos for all the effort on creating awareness on a storm that will bring a variety of impacts to such a large Forecast area with so many climo nuances. Cheers Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yeah... You guys have a solid handle on this event and kudos for all the effort on creating awareness on a storm that will bring a variety of impacts to such a large Forecast area with so many climo nuances. Cheers Mt. Holly Thanks. I think I lost some hair over the weekend trying to figure this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 RGEM snow map here's 18Z for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wxsim still holding on to ZR thru 12 noon tomorrow with 0.97" of precip before turning to rain as temps warm to 34.0 - temps then begin to fall going back below freezing by 7pm with ZR/IP mix transitioning to Moderate to Heavy Snow overnight into Wed AM then off and on light snow till almost midnight Total snow after the changeover near 4" here in the NW Philly burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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