_AR_ Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 From the latest WSW on the cold trend: * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PORTION AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BOTH MONROE AND CARBON COUNTIES. * TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND SUNRISE. ITS POSSIBLE SNOW COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A WHILE DURING MIDDAY TUESDAY BUT THIS CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. BANDS OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 From the latest WSW on the cold trend: * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PORTION AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BOTH MONROE AND CARBON COUNTIES. * TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND SUNRISE. ITS POSSIBLE SNOW COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A WHILE DURING MIDDAY TUESDAY BUT THIS CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. BANDS OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. That is my zone for the pocono special. There appears to be about .5-.7 of liquid not frozen and I need that to be snow for this to truly get the "pocono special" tag, 12"+ essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's currently snowing here near KACY with what appears to be ocean effect/enhanced snow. It's been going at a pretty good rate for about an hour now. Surprised we haven't gotten a short term forecast headline at the least from Mt Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's currently snowing here near KACY with what appears to be ocean effect/enhanced snow. It's been going at a pretty good rate for about an hour now. Surprised we haven't gotten a short term forecast headline at the least from Mt Holly. I was just going to post on what the radar's showing there. Good for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wxsim for NW Chesco at 685 ft asl has Light snow arriving by 10pm this evening becoming moderate snow by 1am with the temp at 27.4 Transitioning to a mix of IP and ZR toward 7am with a temp of 31.6 ZR continuing till 10am by which time 1.17" has fallen all frozen Rain then from 10am to 10pm while 0.66" of liquid fall Rain then begins to transition to Heavy Snow by 3am on Wed morning with around 3" of snow before ending by 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 With the 0z euro shifting east a bit and Mt. Holly a bit more bullish on some wraparound snow tomorrow night, I'm hopeful here for at least some snow in the air (tomorrow night/Wednesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That is my zone for the pocono special. There appears to be about .5-.7 of liquid not frozen and I need that to be snow for this to truly get the "pocono special" tag, 12"+ essentially. This year may be the year for you. This thing seems to be hanging around for quite a while. Philly/S/SE screw zone then not too far N/W it gets interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This year may be the year for you. This thing seems to be hanging around for quite a while. Philly/S/SE screw zone then not too far N/W it gets interesting. Maybe. Considering it is snowing at the shore right now lol it could be the start to a crazy week. All I need is some thunder lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Maybe. Considering it is snowing at the shore right now lol it could be the start to a crazy week. All I need is some thunder lol Had lightning/thunder w/snow already this season....wacky stuff. Not a 3sec rumble but a 15sec long rolling rumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looking at the 12Z NAM I don't see how the area misses out on backend snow tomorrow night although those events usually don't produce much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm at 21 degrees, supposed to be around 28 already. Hmmm Maybe that'll help us out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Southeast PA should see some accumulating snow tuesday night into wednesday via the wraparound/CCB. Snow showers with a heavier squall or two possible. Nam scares me because it has a blob of heavier precip over SE PA. Someone could see several inches with this feature depending on exactly where the death band sets up. Both nam and hires nam both showing this. GFS not as robust and a little farther north with this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This storm has shades of the 2/25-2/26 storm in 2010 - albeit with temps several degrees warmer during the storm and less anticipated retrograding of the low pressure center. In other words, I do think there will be "wrap-around" snows tomorrow night into early Wednesday somewhere in our region...the exact placement and intensity of this remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 RGEM isn't buying what the NAM is selling, in case anyone is curious... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 RGEM snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 RGEM snow map That hurts! So close but so far. Hopefully the euro holds serve later today. NAM & GFS to some degree give me some back end snow with a few inches possible. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 May have to watch the NW burbs tonight. Cold air slow to erode and precip moving in. Could be slick for a few hours before warmer air wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 RGEM looks good for Poconos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 RGEM looks good for Poconos! Yeah, 40-50 on the map is ~18-24 inches. Not saying that will happen, RGEM was a bit overdone with the last storm, but certainly a foot plus is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 For I-95, I'd still be very skeptical about much accumulation (i.e.inch plus). Its possible... though of course the NAM hints at it Tuesday night, the GFS wants it Wednesday night, and the RGEM says haha no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah, 40-50 on the map is ~18-24 inches. Not saying that will happen, RGEM was a bit overdone with the last storm, but certainly a foot plus is in the cards That RGEM snow map has an extremely sharp cutoff ... I'm in the north part of Northampton County and look to be right in a spot where 10 miles north of me gets big snows and 10 miles south of me gets zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 That RGEM snow map has an extremely sharp cutoff ... I'm in the north part of Northampton County and look to be right in a spot where 10 miles north of me gets big snows and 10 miles south of me gets zip. There's a lot of elevation influence with this one because of the marginal boundary layer temps. That's probably what the map is picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There's a lot of elevation influence with this one because of the marginal boundary layer temps. That's probably what the map is picking up on. Makes sense ..... will be a fun storm to watch evolve. I don't think the 800' elevation IMBY is going to be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That is my zone for the pocono special. There appears to be about .5-.7 of liquid not frozen and I need that to be snow for this to truly get the "pocono special" tag, 12"+ essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Makes sense ..... will be a fun storm to watch evolve. I don't think the 800' elevation IMBY is going to be enough. Ditto that on my 675' in Bangor, PA. Remains interesting however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 12z data has indeed trended colder Now has 2.75" with almost all of it with the exception of 2 hours falling with temps below freezing. A little bit of snow to start but quickly over to ZR/IP and then to ZR. It has temps just getting above freezing at around 1030am tomorrow before slowly falling tomorrow PM - changing to moderate to heavy snow by 2 am on Wed morning accumulating around 4" of snow before ending late morning on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro along with the GFS now cools the BL along I-95 down to freezing Wednesday evening, allowing what remains (perhaps a tenth) to fall as snow. So, could be an inch. Of course, wraparound amounts that light could be phantom. Don't think I-95 sees any accumulating snow before then (despite the NAM, which is on its own). Maybe some white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Forky pointed this out to me, the oddity of this system... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/14120812/6.phase1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 FA could you please explain that graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 FA could you please explain that graphic? If you look at the visable loop of the storm off the coast, you can see that it is at least a subtropical low with a warm core which is unusual at this time of year. It eventually translates into a normal cold core storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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