SP Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Disregard snow maps. Look at surface temps. 36 in mount Pocono Sent from my iPhone I'm still going with a pocono special. Will see how the afternoon runs go and adjust maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm still going with a pocono special. Will see how the afternoon runs go and adjust maybe. Is the back end snow really this pronounced? For the Lehigh valley the weather outlets have rain for Tuesday with snow basically Wednesday through Friday? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm really looking forward to this storm, said nobody ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Is the back end snow really this pronounced? For the Lehigh valley the weather outlets have rain for Tuesday with snow basically Wednesday through Friday? Sent from my iPad I have not watched the tube. A few glances at the euro and GFS. I promised myself not to do a run by run vigil and relax until the Sunday afternoon data. Seems a bit quiet around here....which alone is an indicator of precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Wraparound snows rarely work out. Nor does pinpointing a CCB. Gonna be watch and see but I am guessing upstate PA and upstate NY state get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well when philly looks wet it's always quiet in here, I know there isn't too many Pocono guys here, but the lehigh valley may see a few Inches front end and backend plus the floods in between lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Snow or rain, im surprised how dead it is in here with such a nasty storm approaching. Shore points are gonna take a hammering and with the rain yesterday already saturating the ground, it wont take much to see flooding around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Snow or rain, im surprised how dead it is in here with such a nasty storm approaching. Shore points are gonna take a hammering and with the rain yesterday already saturating the ground, it wont take much to see flooding around these parts. I agree. It just goes to show how much AMWX (at least along the east coast) is a winter centric weather board. Personally, I think the storm, and the various model scenarios being depicted, are facsenating regardless of precipitation type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I agree. It just goes to show how much AMWX (at least along the east coast) is a winter centric weather board. Personally, I think the storm, and the various model scenarios being depicted, are facsenating regardless of precipitation type. Yep I also use these events as a trigger to cycle the jerrycans. This type of event gives me the coastal and elevation experience all in one event. Will see if my schedule opens for a on quick road trip to go from beach to 2100ft cabin on Wed. Should be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 GFS keeps indicating higher elevations of central eastern PA down into upper Bucks, Montco and Chester get in on some frozen action from the ccb on Wednesday. ECM has been too warm as has the Canadian for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 I think we all know that this subforum has been pretty quiet ever since Tom and company left to make their own forum. I must admit, I like the calmness. I'm not here 24-7 and it can be a bit frustrating, if there isn't an active event currently in progress, to visit and see a couple hundred posts I haven't read. A la the NYC sub-forum (which is quite busy). For I-95 the only hope is wraparound, but guidance has kept on the idea of a warm boundary layer behind the system which will make it difficult for light precip (as currently depicted) to reach the ground as snow and accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I agree. It just goes to show how much AMWX (at least along the east coast) is a winter centric weather board. Personally, I think the storm, and the various model scenarios being depicted, are facsenating regardless of precipitation type. I agree . Fun to track regardless. Pretty wet month so far. Could have close to 5 inches of rain on the month after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 If this holds merit, I dont normally care much for clown maps though. 12z vs 06z gfs Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 From experience you get 25% of WxBell snow. Which fits my thinking of 1" max in upper Bucks to 2" in the Lehigh Valley. Only if low track is as far east as the GFS indicates however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 If this holds merit, I dont normally care much for clown maps though. 12z vs 06z gfs Sent from my iPad I see less than that for the burbs and Poconos surrounding Philly. Looks like a rain storm w/winds...not great but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The point I guess is that 12z is colder then 6z Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/ Step in the right direction if you like snow Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Wxsim has 1.39" of precip all mixed variety - never all rain with temps between 31.5 and 34.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Wxsim has 1.39" of precip all mixed variety - never all rain with temps between 31.5 and 34.1 Interesting, didn't you wxsim have all rain for pre thanksgiving? When models showed accumulating snow? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I think keeping the idea of the pocono special is a good one after a quick glance at GFS and Euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hoping I can squeeze out a few inches of snow on the back end. Going to hope for some decent dynamics. Expect the storm to be 70 percent rain in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hoping I can squeeze out a few inches of snow on the back end. Going to hope for some decent dynamics. Expect the storm to be 70 percent rain in my backyard. I think you can get a a couple inches on the front end as well where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This will be a fun storm to watch...interesting days ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Snow or rain, im surprised how dead it is in here with such a nasty storm approaching. Shore points are gonna take a hammering and with the rain yesterday already saturating the ground, it wont take much to see flooding around these parts. I'll add a little chatter. For us at the shore knowing it'll be a rain-only storm does make it somewhat less interesting. However I am interested to see how high the wind gets. I've had one 60mph gust this year (60,3/13)and only a couple in the 50-55mph range. Gusts of those speeds(50-60+) do seem possible with this storm. Years back seems it happened more often. Flooding could be a concern, appears possible, and checking that out might be fun. I shall post all relevant details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Pretty neat new snowfall probability maps at http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Anthony.......yes.....first time it ever showed something that different from NWS and most models.....it failed. That said it has a learning algorithm that I have applied so let's see if any better this time. All that said I always defer to the NWS professionals but it is usually very good with start and stop times etc. Interesting, didn't you wxsim have all rain for pre thanksgiving? When models showed accumulating snow?Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hello all , I agree with above posts from a weather stand point a truly fascinating storm to track yes for many ..me included precip type will be 99% rain but heck this is the hobby we have chosen . and you get some winners and you get some disappointments .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ECM ensemble snow potential is greater than i expected at 2" in SEPA and near 4" in northern western fringes. More like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ECM ensemble snow potential is greater than i expected at 2" in SEPA and near 4" in northern western fringes. More like the GFS Caught Glenn after football (12:15am)...rainfall 2"+ winds and long lasting. Not snow but eventful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Insanely tight gradient expected: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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