Psalm 148:8 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 A couple things before we fire up the old hardware for the night guys. We would be in a much more precarious situation right now if we had the GFS on our side and not the EC. The two links below show H5 verification for the 0z Euro (from 168hrs) and Global (from 144hrs), till 24 hrs out. Note how far some of the height fields are off till about 72 hours when both models seem to hone in. The EC appears to have handled the Pac better, while the GFS the vortex in Canada. Of note, the GFS was way off in the Pac, and the Euro not nearly as bad with thevortex to our north. The UKMET is the model to watch imo. Not only does it have a H5 NH 5 day verification score that is second to the ECMWF, it can be better than the GFS in handling phasing between the southern and northern branches in fast flow patterns (per NCEP model bias). If the GFS shows phasing outside of 84 hrs, check the UKMET for continuity. The UKMET has also been the most consitent model, in showing a southern slider for the last 2 days. When I see the ECMWF and UKMET in almost lock step at 96 hrs, while the GFS is different, that is a red flag that the GFS is an outlier. The two graphics below show the 12z Euro and 12z Ukie at 96 and 120hrs, almost carbon copies of one another. We still have another 48hrs or so for potential bust. Once we can get a good look at the NAM inside of 48, and the global models inside of 72, and there is agreement, that is the time to start celebrating, knowing that we have made it through the dark regions and into the home stretch. I prefer a ens mean blend of the big 3 atm (ECMWF, GFS, GGEM), to smooth out extremes for a middle of the road solution. And for a lot of folks in the SE atm, the middle road looks good! excellent post! Thanks for showing not just one model, but also showing how the two compare. [ likeness and how they are different from each other.] Here's to hoping the NAM stays on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCwxMAN Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Look at that big 570 block up there in northern Canada. Amazing. Haha I imagine its like a heat wave for any one soul that lives in northern Canada with that 570dm height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nam is out to 24. Its several hundred miles offshore Cali, and is about to start to split. Very far south, but we'll see how far south it is when it comes inland. Finally, the cavalry has arrived! Now we're rollin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow -- deeper and stronger at 30. Also, the "Foothills Vortex" is a touch farther south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow -- deeper and stronger at 30. Also, the "Foothills Vortex" is a touch farther south as well. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 S CA gets ravaged with rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it does look further south, maybe 100 miles or so. At 42 its still sw of LAX maybe due south. The flow is south, even southeast at 850 in norhtern Baja. Don't see that too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 In other news, I hope the 21z SREF is out to lunch late in its range ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just for comparison: 0Z 12/21 36 hr: 12Z 12/20 48 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just for comparison: 0Z 12/21 36 hr: 12Z 12/20 48 hr: thanks......much sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 South and Sharper.. Nice Just for comparison: 0Z 12/21 36 hr: 12Z 12/20 48 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it does look further south, maybe 100 miles or so. At 42 its still sw of LAX maybe due south. The flow is south, even southeast at 850 in norhtern Baja. Don't see that too much. It is. the wave is separating from the lobe a bit quicker pulling a tad further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 over 5" of rain the mtns outside LA in the next 45 hours. Wow! At 48 hr, the trough is coming inland. And may still be digging slightly. Highly unusual setup, even for a NINO year this type of trough in the srn. CAL region is strange. I have a feeling we'll be seeing this on the news in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 s/w max vorticity about 100 miles SE at 48 hrs compared to 18z. more digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That looks awfully close to a close off at 42 hrs, you can see the packet taking on a circular look, and with what is still streaming in I would be surprised to not see it close off this run. 18z UKMET had a weak close off in AZ-NM at 72hrs... Much more amped this run and slightly south compared to the 12z. Also a little slower than the 12z GFS... At 48hrs (oh so close to a cutoff, but no NE wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 thanks......much sharper trough. You bet. Looking good so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It also looks to me like a lobe of the vortex is nosing into the WSW and further dropping heights on the Eastern Seaboard in advance of the system, at least compared to 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 60 hour. No real suprises so far, except it was deeper and further south a smidge. Its located in central to north central AZ. Deep northerly flow continues for the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OK, here's a weeine question if there ever was one -- what's the difference, if any, between an "N" and an "X" on the 500mb vort charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You are right about that north flow at 60. Looks strong... the 60 hour. No real suprises so far, except it was deeper and further south a smidge. Its located in central to north central AZ. Deep northerly flow continues for the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That looks awfully close to a close off at 42 hrs, you can see the packet taking on a circular look, and with what is still streaming in I would be surprised to not see it close off this run. 18z UKMET had a weak close off in AZ-NM at 72hrs... Much more amped this run and slightly south compared to the 12z. Also a little slower than the 12z GFS... At 48hrs (oh so close to a cutoff, but no NE wind) The Euro did cut it off about this time, but further north than where the NAM has it, a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 60 hour. No real suprises so far, except it was deeper and further south a smidge. Its located in central to north central AZ. Deep northerly flow continues for the East coast. Similar to ECMWF/UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 60 and beyond , here some changes (comparing to the 12 z, not 18 z) The s/w is located on the border of NM, AZ at 18z Thursday, but todays 12Z valid for same time had it futher east and northeast by 200 miles or so. We'll see if thats substantial later on, but it appears to be adjusting a little more south and west, very much like Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 60 and beyond , here some changes (comparing to the 12 z, not 18 z) The s/w is located on the border of NM, AZ at 18z Thursday, but todays 12Z valid for same time had it futher east and northeast by 200 miles or so. We'll see if thats substantial later on, but it appears to be adjusting a little more south and west, very much like Euro. You think from the low in Atlantic Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 60 and beyond , here some changes (comparing to the 12 z, not 18 z) The s/w is located on the border of NM, AZ at 18z Thursday, but todays 12Z valid for same time had it futher east and northeast by 200 miles or so. We'll see if thats substantial later on, but it appears to be adjusting a little more south and west, very much like Euro. true, and compared to 18z it's a definitely slower by at least 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 72, theres a weak 850 low in eastern Colorado, and the 5H feature is about closed off. Most of the precip is in Iowa and SD, a little in Tx, but light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Kind of an abruptly different look between 60 and 66 hours at 5h -- much more open looking. Guess it gets better again at 72? at 72, theres a weak 850 low in eastern Colorado, and the 5H feature is about closed off. Most of the precip is in Iowa and SD, a little in Tx, but light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OK, here's a weeine question if there ever was one -- what's the difference, if any, between an "N" and an "X" on the 500mb vort charts? EDIT:for wrong answer...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 TYVM. N=open X=closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 N=open X=closed Incorrect... X is a local maximum in vorticity and N is a local minimum It has nothing to do with whether the trough is open or closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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