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Christmas Storm II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

Well, one of the big differences between the GFS and the rest of the world of models, is the way it handles the 50/50 low. I know that I have been preaching this since yesterday, but I still believe this is the most important feature. This will have a huge impact on the orentation of the trough axis and the infiltration of the arctic air. In my opinion, until the position and strength of this feature is resolved, we won't know if the GFS is garbage or not.

At a glance, all the models show a southern CA system moving across the country. from there, its' track will be determined by how much it is forced to dig by the up-stream blocking. I agree with the previous posts, since Euro,Canadian, Nogaps, and JMA are all in agreement. The GFS appears to be out-to-lunch. If tonights global runs are still this consistent, then I believe it's just a matter of time until the GFS catches on............ possibly as early as tonight's 0z run. You have to like our chances at this point.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Every model is basically in a southward agreement to an extent .. but the GFS. The GFS is the model local/noaa forecasters seem to be using right now because it keeps them from having to mention "white christmas" it seems. HPC decides to ignore us down here too and just talk about the NE. The Euro/Met/GGEM are the ones I pick right now especially since they did well on the last storm in SC in Feb of last year. It's not the same exact setup though.

Yeah I noticed that too. It seems it doesn't matter whether it's sports or weather, new england and the mid atlantic will always be the center of attention. It really is frustrating.

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

NWS-GSP issued an HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

330 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-

506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-212030-

RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-

DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-

UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-

GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-

GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-

GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-

LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-

330 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT

NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND

CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WINTRY

MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY

AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL TRACK. IF

THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...THIS WOULD FAVOR SNOW...SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST

GEORGIA EITHER CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE THE CURRENT

FORECAST FAVORS A WARMER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT

AREAS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH LOW. AS THE

LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...

SNOWFALL...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS...WILL

CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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After seeing the ensembles it makes me feel better about the 18z GFS, hopefully just a hiccup. If the NAM and euro look good tonight and the 00z GFS trends south I'll be feeling real good about this weekend.

I agree, but I wouldn't call just today's 18Z GFS a hiccup unless along with it, you lump in the last 12 runs of the GFS. Either they are all a hiccup or the GFS will end up being right, which I doubt. Anyway, assuming we continue to see model consensus (minus the GFS) on the more southern track, then the GFS will come around, eventually.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Looks like Central NC is torn between 2 lovers --- we don't have any HWO -- but this is out of the Wakefield office this afternoon...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

323 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

MDZ021>025-NCZ012-VAZ048-049-060>094-099-100-212030-

DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-

NORTHAMPTON NC-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-

HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-

CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-

RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-

CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-

SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-

NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-

323 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF

MARYLAND...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL

VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST

VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF

VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF

VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF

CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST

AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGIONS CHRISTMAS DAY INTO SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS

CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

PERSONS IN...OR EXPECTING TO TRAVEL THROUGH...THE AREA DURING THE

HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE DEVELOPING

WEATHER SITUATION.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

Every model is basically in a southward agreement to an extent .. but the GFS. The GFS is the model local/noaa forecasters seem to be using right now because it keeps them from having to mention "white christmas" it seems. HPC decides to ignore us down here too and just talk about the NE. The Euro/Met/GGEM are the ones I pick right now especially since they did well on the last storm in SC in Feb of last year. It's not the same exact setup though.

I hardly even care what the local mets say anymore, outside of Greg Fishel in Raleigh, and he must be off this week, cause I didn't see him tonight. Growing up, I couldn't wait for the weather report....to see if it changed from rain in the forecast to snow in the forecast. I would always hold out hope if I saw that on Day 4 or 5, they were calling for rain with a temp of 40. That was a signal to me that there was at least a possibility of something wintry.

Now, we have access to so much of what they have as well as access to some of the best mets around, I really don't care what's on the "7 day". If I wanna know that, I just look at some models and then come here.

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Weather Czar

Weather Czar

Posted
Posted

18z RGEM wants to dig the southern s/w into Baja! I would assume the CMC is still on board.:whistle:

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_048.jpg

12z CMC ensemble mean. Did not see it posted yet. Pretty good agreement with the op and the Euro and GFS ensemble mean.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemble850mbTSLPUS108.gif

If anyone wants a laugh, Check out the 18z thread!:whistle:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Since we're in such an unusual, extreme blocking pattern, the models are expected to have a problem with storm tracks. None of them may be far enough south yet. Its been a few years since we've had such a setup across the Globe, so the usual rules and biases might not apply like they normally do.

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

Since we're in such an unusual, extreme blocking pattern, the models are expected to have a problem with storm tracks. None of them may be far enough south yet. Its been a few years since we've had such a setup across the Globe, so the usual rules and biases might not apply like they normally do.

Very good post Robert. Thats the beauty of tracking this thing (for better or for worse). We all learn something everytime (especially you Pro's out there). I like GSP's approach. They said a mixture outside of the foothills. Thats a good middle of the road approach, based on all the model data.

Thanks for all your thoughts the past 24hrs. Are you up for another Euro run tonight? That was a blast last night.

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NCwxMAN

NCwxMAN

Posted
Posted

Since we're in such an unusual, extreme blocking pattern, the models are expected to have a problem with storm tracks. None of them may be far enough south yet. Its been a few years since we've had such a setup across the Globe, so the usual rules and biases might not apply like they normally do.

Yea its easy to jump the gun here (showing snow on Christmas day) and I know the models have had a hard time here lately so I guess we should just stay in our seats till 48hr or less of the event.

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generelz

generelz

Posted
Posted

I would take 1-2. My mom is terminally I'll with ovarian cancer and she has never seen a white Christmas here in nega ( Athens ). I'm not picky.

Really sorry to hear about your Mom :( - I feel the same about the snow. If there's white stuff falling out of the sky on Christmas, I'll be happier than a pig in sh*t. I'm not hard to please Snowman.gif

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Cyric297

Cyric297

Posted
Posted

I hardly even care what the local mets say anymore, outside of Greg Fishel in Raleigh, and he must be off this week, cause I didn't see him tonight. Growing up, I couldn't wait for the weather report....to see if it changed from rain in the forecast to snow in the forecast. I would always hold out hope if I saw that on Day 4 or 5, they were calling for rain with a temp of 40. That was a signal to me that there was at least a possibility of something wintry.

Now, we have access to so much of what they have as well as access to some of the best mets around, I really don't care what's on the "7 day". If I wanna know that, I just look at some models and then come here.

Absolutely 100% agree with you here.

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