Christmas Storm II

[tnweathernut]

If you told me last week that 4.5 to 5 days before Christmas there would be a good snowstorm on all the models (GGEM, EURO, UKIE, NOGAPS), but not on the GFS, i"d have said "cool, wonder when the GFS will join them?"

I might be wrong and it might score a victory here, but I'd rather have it this way 100% of the time than the GFS to be showing a snowstorm and the other modeling where the GFS is now. just my two cents worth.

[burrel2]

I dont even see a storm? Am I missing something?

Not really, its sheared out and fairly weak. However, verbatim, it would drop a couple inches across most of the south east. Remember, the Nogaps has a serious dry bias on it's precip panel. Check out the 700mb RH and lift panels.

[CaryWx]

Yes be very worried Carywx. Be afraid of DTs DJN rule. If the DGEX, JMA, and NOGAPs are all together take it to the bank.

Yeah, but that rule also requires a lunar eclipse as well...oh wait.

[BIG FROSTY]

Funny how since he usually blasts that model. I guess now that it gives a better chance of a snowstorm from D.C. to New England, he sings a different tune.

Yea, He always finds a way to get it atleast DC. The Euro bucked him last storm so I guess he'll try the GFS this time ? lol

[burgertime]

And that is what usually happens... Very difficult for both regions to cash in on the same storm, sure it possible, but not likely. One of us are going to get screwed. I would much rather have the ECMWF, GGEM, UKMET, and JMA in our court atm, compared to only the GFS. Consensus says the op GFS is an outlier until proven otherwise, and no the DGEX is not proof!

Yep and that's the worst part. The GFS could very well verify and this was all for not. Thankfully like you said we have so much model consensus which is we would all take any day over the GFS.

[NCBlizzard]

Didn't he pretty much blow the last two storms?

Yup

[HKY18]

it concerns me that the gfs is so far north. doesent it have a southeast bias or is that just the case with certain synoptic situations.

[burgertime]

Yea, He always finds a way to get it atleast DC. The Euro bucked him last storm so I guess he'll try the GFS this time ? lol

I think the one thing we have for this storm compared to the last (and please mets feel free to put me in my place) is that the last storm according to Wes had so many moving parts, it was almost impossible for the models to really predict what was going to happen. This storm is more of a traditional storm so confidence is high that the models are on to something. This past weekend every model bucked. IIRC no model had it right consistently. That to me makes this even more interesting the GFS is holding steady while every other model is pretty much holding steady. Who will be the first to break?

[CaryWx]

burger, is the GFS really holding steady? Seems it's the one "moving around" moreso than the other models.

[GaffneyPeach]

Tonights 00z of the Euro will be pretty important IMHO...even though I have a feeling it will go *poof* just to have it reappear on Wed.

I was thinking that this morning, Burger. It's the Storm-Drop theory (yeah it's mine but whatev). All decent storms must disappear especially in the 'height of excitement' window....only to reappear a couple runs later.

[WeatherNC]

18z GFS slp placement near Charlotte @ 114hrs

12z ECMWF near Mobile Bay

12z UKMET near Tallahassee

12z GEM near Valdosta

12z ECMWF ens mean near Macon

12z GFS ens mean near Charleston

12z GGEM ens mean near Macon

any questions?

[BullCityWx]

Yep and that's the worst part. The GFS could very well verify and this was all for not. Thankfully like you said we have so much model consensus which is we would all take any day over the GFS.

Yeah, you're right. The GFS could verify, it's definitely possible. It's also possible that Jimmy Clausen will go out and be 23/23 800 yards 9TD's on sunday. It's just not very likely .

I like where we're sitting right now. The GFS is almost always the last one to the party.

[eyewall]

18Z = FAIL

Don't throw it out just because it sucks . If it is the true outlier then we can consider that.

[burgertime]

burger, is the GFS really holding steady? Seems it's the one "moving around" moreso than the other models.

The past couple of runs have put us out the game and kept it north. It's moved a hair south and north but over all it hasn't giving us snow. That I guess is what I meant by it holding steady. Like Queencity said though GFS is usually always late to the party, but it certainly is interesting.

[CaryWx]

thanks burger

[HKY_WX]

The GFS has actually took a step towards the euro with the ultimate solution. Meaning a phase. The main difference is the gfs is making the northern stream a bigger player, which is a common bias with it. I have a hard time seeing the gfs beat out the euro w/ the placement of the s/w on the west coast at 72 hours. Generally the euro is pretty good in that timeframe. However, those hoping for a track as far south as the euro are probably deluding themselves unfortunately. I think a track that lies in the middle is possible. Meaning a SLP track over southern to central deep south.

[oconeexman]

18z GFS slp placement near Charlotte @ 114hrs

12z ECMWF near Mobile Bay

12z UKMET near Tallahassee

12z GEM near Valdosta

12z ECMWF ens mean near Macon

12z GFS ens mean near Charleston

12z GGEM ens mean near Macon

any questions?

Nice, that sums it up doesn't it? Lol...right now 0Z and 12Z all i'm concerned with this far out. Not looking at continuation data from the outlier model! Trying to stay positive here.

See ya'll at the 0Z hours

[Tacoma]

I've heard 18z gfs run is always garbage that the next run to count on is the 0z gfs run

[NC_hailstorm]

The MJO is is moving into a better position now(phase 7)after being in 5 and 6 the last couple weeks.Better storm track for our area most of the time.8 would be really better but we'll see.The AO should still be fairly negative at the time also.

Also the snowpack is still very good coming down to S.Virginia now from N.Canada,air should'nt modify much.

Right now I'd say this has a slightly better chance to hit but not a guarantee somewhere,just my opinion.

[jrips27]

We should be starting to enter the European's " Dead On Zone" tonight and tomorrow right?

[BullCityWx]

The MJO is is moving into a better position now(phase 7)after being in 5 and 6 the last couple weeks.Better storm track for our area most of the time.8 would be really better but we'll see.The AO should still be fairly negative at the time also.

Also the snowpack is still very good coming down to S.Virginia now from N.Canada,air should'nt modify much.

Right now I'd say this has a slightly better chance to hit but not a guarantee somewhere,just my opinion.

That's a good point...our cold air source will be parked over snowcover. That's always helpful.

[BullCityWx]

The GFS has actually took a step towards the euro with the ultimate solution. Meaning a phase. The main difference is the gfs is making the northern stream a bigger player, which is a common bias with it. I have a hard time seeing the gfs beat out the euro w/ the placement of the s/w on the west coast at 72 hours. Generally the euro is pretty good in that timeframe. However, those hoping for a track as far south as the euro are probably deluding themselves unfortunately. I think a track that lies in the middle is possible. Meaning a SLP track over southern to central deep south.

I always get burned when I say this but whatever...I'm glad we've got a little wiggle room.

[Shawn]

Lol, if the 18z GFS would have just shifted South it would have been "right." Since it's North, it's "the 18z and wrong". Also, our main local met just basically said "No, there won't be a white Christmas" for my area. So.. the NOGAPS shifted south and basically as a super weak system until it goes up the coast.. the GFS went North, the Euro is locked for two runs in a row along w/ the UKMET holding tight.. then the amazing GGEM. I <3 winter in the SE.

Edit: oh yeah, the NAM going twoards the Euro too.. lol

[packbacker]

The GFS has actually took a step towards the euro with the ultimate solution. Meaning a phase. The main difference is the gfs is making the northern stream a bigger player, which is a common bias with it. I have a hard time seeing the gfs beat out the euro w/ the placement of the s/w on the west coast at 72 hours. Generally the euro is pretty good in that timeframe. However, those hoping for a track as far south as the euro are probably deluding themselves unfortunately. I think a track that lies in the middle is possible. Meaning a SLP track over southern to central deep south.

So over Atlanta would be kind of an average of the Euro/CMC/Ukie vs Euro? And I think the JMA was south too.

[rduwx]

The MJO is is moving into a better position now(phase 7)after being in 5 and 6 the last couple weeks.Better storm track for our area most of the time.8 would be really better but we'll see.The AO should still be fairly negative at the time also.

Also the snowpack is still very good coming down to S.Virginia now from N.Canada,air should'nt modify much.

Right now I'd say this has a slightly better chance to hit but not a guarantee somewhere,just my opinion.

Very good point hailstorm...That is something I forgot to even look at.

[lilj4425]

From Kendra Kent who is the chief met at Fox Carolina here in Greenville:

Nothing too earth shattering with my post today when I say… a LOT can change between now and Christmas regarding the forecast. With that said, I think a White Christmas for our area is certainly a possibility! Plus a lunar eclipse tonight! Here’s the latest on the eclipse first:

Timeframe: 1am-5am (total eclipse from about 2-4)

Earth’s shadow will be over the moon. Should be visible for several hours, but we will have some clouds around hindering the view a bit.

Tomorrow clouds will be the rule with isolated showers in the Upstate, better chance in the mountains. Patchy freezing rain is possible in the mountains early on, but should be light and very isolated.

By late week we’ll be tracking a low pressure trucking across the southeast. If the low tracks to our north, just rain… if it tracks over us, then rain and some brief snow possible on the back edge. If the low tracks south of us, could see decent snow. Amounts don’t look impressive now, but that could change. And our forecast models are flip flopping a bit, but many 12z runs looked fairly promising for winter weather potential in the Upstate and mountains. Looks like Saturday during the day is the timing right now. Lets keep watch!

I agree with the comments on my last post… 18z GFS looks a bit suspect, lets wait till 0z (or better yet lets wait till Thursday!) to make any drastic changes to our thinking.

May end up being only rain on Christmas for the Upstate, but DOES look undoubtedly colder late Saturday into Sunday.

[Shawn]

So over Atlanta would be kind of an average of the Euro/CMC/Ukie vs Euro? And I think the JMA was south too.

Every model is basically in a southward agreement to an extent .. but the GFS. The GFS is the model local/noaa forecasters seem to be using right now because it keeps them from having to mention "white christmas" it seems. HPC decides to ignore us down here too and just talk about the NE. The Euro/Met/GGEM are the ones I pick right now especially since they did well on the last storm in SC in Feb of last year. It's not the same exact setup though.

[HKY_WX]

So over Atlanta would be kind of an average of the Euro/CMC/Ukie vs Euro? And I think the JMA was south too.

To be honest, it's prob too early to be that specific. South of the gfs i would definitely say, but a little north of the ecmwf.

[msp]

i have to say my interest is slightly piqued. i'm in wilmington friday and saturday before flying out with a layover in charlotte sat. evening late. nothing like a potential (snow?)storm to complicate travel plans.

nothing i've seen so far makes me hopeful to see much along the coast, but i'm still looking forward to following a storm with the southeast crew!

[BullCityWx]

i have to say my interest is slightly piqued. i'm in wilmington friday and saturday before flying out with a layover in charlotte sat. evening late. nothing like a potential (snow?)storm to complicate travel plans.

nothing i've seen so far makes me hopeful to see much along the coast, but i'm still looking forward to following a storm with the southeast crew!

Awesome, here's to hoping!